Well, Friday certainly went quite differently for the two teams that will play on respective back-to-backs at the Air Canada Centre on Saturday night. While the Toronto Raptors were taking care of their business at home against the Lakers, tasking their two stars with just a combined 60 minutes in a 33-point win, the Atlanta Hawks were losing by an even greater margin on their own court to the Detroit Pistons. It was the Hawks’ eighth loss in nine games, and with no Paul Millsap in Toronto, things look like they’re going to get worse for Atlanta before they get better.
As always, though, there’s nothing easy in the NBA. The Raptors have won three different style of blowout at home this week, each against teams missing key pieces – they were a little slow and late to start to put the 76ers away, they let the Grizzlies hang until midway through the fourth, and then they handled the Lakers buzzer-to-buzzer. The Hawks are sputtering, but there’s too much talent, too much streaky shooting, and too smart a coach on the other side to risk letting this one go down to the wire. The Raptors have won five in a row and really asserted themselves as better than this string of opponents. They’ll need to continue to do that against what should be a very hungry, angry Hawks outfit.
It’s also an interesting “immovable object and the unstoppable force” game – the Raptors have passed the Warriors for the No. 1 rank in O-Rating when adjusting for schedule, and the Hawks are the No. 2 adjusted defense behind only the Clippers.
The game tips off at 7:30 on Sportsnet One and Sportsnet 590.
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To help set the stage, I reached out to Brad Rowland of Peachtree Hoops, who was kind enough to help us out. As a note, Brad answered these Thursday, before the news that Millsap would miss a pair of games.
Blake Murphy: The Hawks came out of the gate on fire, looking like a legitimate threat to the Raptors as the No. 2 team in the East. Since then, they’ve dropped eight of nine, and while there are a few “good” losses in there, this has to be troubling. What’s changed over the last few weeks?
Brad Rowland: In short, the bench and, well, the offense in general regressed considerably. Atlanta’s starting lineup was being out-scored by opponents even as they amassed a 9-2 record, but the bench was utterly incredible so it didn’t matter. Since then, the bench has predictably fallen back to earth, and what the Hawks are left with is a bottom-10 offense that lacks both playmaking and shooting. Hey, at least the defense is still good.
Blake Murphy: The Hawks’ offense maybe could have been expected to sputter out of the gate, given some of the roster changes and working Dwight Howard into the system. How has Howard fit in on that end of the floor? Is there reason to hope Mike Budenholzer can figure out a way to get this back to an average offense?
Brad Rowland: I actually think Howard is not the problem, and that he has played about as well as anyone could have expected. For me, there was always going to be an offensive dip from Al Horford to Dwight Howard, in part because of the spacing issues that it would create for everyone else. Howard does command more attention as a pick-and-roll finisher, but because Atlanta’s shooting is overrated around him, the loss of a fifth spacer on the floor has been significant. I trust Mike Budenholzer to do what he can as one of the better coaches in the NBA, but it is very tough to foster a competent offense with a young, inefficient point guard and two starting wings that don’t really create for others or get their own shot.
Blake Murphy: Despite the losing stretch, the defense still ranks second in the NBA in points allowed per-100 possessions. Nobody is stingier than the Hawks overall, and that comes in large part from forcing a ton of turnovers while also not fouling. How does Budenholzer’s system allow the Hawks to be so aggressive but at the same time avoid the mistakes that usually accompany said aggression?
Brad Rowland: Budenholzer has done a remarkable job defensively over the last two seasons, and he deserves a ton of credit. Atlanta made their bones in 2015-2016 by playing five rangy defenders at a time, switching a lot and utilizing the strengths of Horford and Millsap as guys who are far more versatile than typical players at their position. Budenholzer has (rightly) changed that approach a little bit to account for Howard’s strengths as a rebounder and rim protector, and while I don’t think the Hawks have been quite as good at deterring the opposition on the perimeter, Howard’s rebounding has been a boon in ending possessions in a way Atlanta struggled with during Horford’s tenure. Forcing turnovers has been huge to the early-season success, and guys like Millsap (who is a legitimately elite defender), Kent Bazemore and even Schröder are above-average in that category, but the scheme has a ton to do with Atlanta’s defensive success over a long period.
Blake Murphy: Is Kent Bazemore the greatest human alive?
Brad Rowland: My tendency is to say yes, even with the caveat that he isn’t playing very well right now. I love Kent and Atlanta loves Kent, which gives him a bit longer leash than you might expect for a guy underachieving in the first year of a four-year contract. The Baze Gaze triumphs over all.
Blake Murphy: It’s super early without much playing time, but of the trio of intriguing rookies the Hawks filled out the roster with (Taurean Prince, DeAndre’ Bembry [didn’t the Hawks retire Josh Childress’ haircut?], and Malcolm Delaney), who looks like the best long-term prospect?
Brad Rowland: First, Bembry’s hair is majestic and I’ll never forget interviewing him the first time in Las Vegas and being struck by it in person.
As for basketball stuff, Taurean Prince looks like the best long-term prospect and he is clearly ahead of Bembry on the development curve. Prince profiles as an above-average defender given his body and intensity, and we’ve seen some of that despite some rookie mishaps. I’m not sure he’ll ever be anything special offensively (though he is aggressive), but the defensive aptitude and profile is something I like. I love Bembry, but we won’t know about him for a while considering his defensive and shooting issues. I’m excited to see what he can be, but he’s actually more of a long-term play despite being a “veteran” college draft pick. Finally, it’s almost weird to think of Delaney as a rookie, but at 27, he’s been a league-average backup point guard right away in my view, and that free agent deal was a heist for the Hawks. I expect him to shoot better in the coming months if his college/international statistics are any indication, but he certainly belongs and I know the front office has coveted him for a long while.
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I also teed up this matchup and talked bigger picture Raptors-Hawks things with Robby Kalland on yesterday’s podcast.
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Raptors updates
With DeMarre Carroll resting for Friday’s blowout against the Lakers, he’ll be available again in this one. While Kyle Korver is the more difficult cover, I wonder if the Raptors don’t task Carroll with Kent Bazemore instead, given the “system” nature of guarding Korver (whereas Carroll thrives more as a one-on-one defender). However they approach it out of the gate, Terrence Ross and Norman Powell figure to be important if Korver gets hot, and that’s a matchup Powell did a pretty good job with a season ago.
Inside, Jonas Valanciunas and Lucas Nogueira will have to be cognizant of the glass, which the latter hasn’t always done well this year. That’s not just on Nogueira – he’s such an active rim-protector that it often requires someone else to box out his man – but he needs to be better, as do the perimeter players cracking back. That’s because Dwight Howard is a problem, and while the Hawks are only about average in offensive rebounding rate, it’s probably an area Mike Budenholzer will have his team attacking, especially when Valanciunas is off of the floor. Patrick Patterson has upped his rebounding effort of late, and Pascal Siakam’s actually grabbing a hugher percentage of rebounds than Nogueira, so there should be some help from the power forward position, where the Hawks will likely have an extra wing for stretches of the night.
In that same regard, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Raptors get a little smaller at times. That’s not necessarily because the Hawks starting three wings should dictate the matchup, but it gives Toronto the option to switch across multiple positions rather than chasing a step behind or being forced to help and recover back to the corners. I know, I know, you get it, I like small, fun lineups with an extra wing.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Fred Vanleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: DeMarre Carroll, Terrence Ross
PF: Pascal Siakam,Patrick Patterson, Bruno Caboclo
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Lucas Nogueira, Jakob Poeltl
ASSIGNED: None
TBD: None
OUT: Delon Wright, Jared Sullinger
Hawks updates
Paul Millsap isn’t traveling with the Hawks, which is a huge loss. He’s their best player, an elite defender who the Hawks may have entrusted switching on to DeRozan, and their most efficient scorer. Without him, the Hawks seem likely to start Thabo Sefolosha for the second night in a row, asking him to guard DeRozan out of the gate rather than using Kent Bazemore, who is great but gives up a fair amount of size in that matchup.
It should be really interesting to see how Budenholzer attacks the DeRozan and Lowry matchups. I wonder if, given how well DeRozan’s moved the ball lately and how much that’s gotten Toronto’s shooters going, the Hawks don’t dare DeRozan to shoot a little bit more, eschewing some blitzing and trapping to stay more at home on shooters and coax DeRozan into some mid-range looks (Sefolosha is the type of defender who might be able to pull that off). Budenholzer’s very smart, and he has the tools on the wing to make this a fun challenge DeRozan will surely be up for.
PG: Dennis Schroder, Malcolm Delaney
SG: Kyle Korver, Tim Hardaway Jr., DeAndre’ Bembry
SF: Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince
PF: Thabo Sefolosha, Kris Humphries, Mike Scott
C: Dwight Howard, Mike Muscala, Ryan Kelly
TBD:
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: Tiago Splitter, Paul Millsap
The line
As of 9:30 this morning, the line was still off the board. That’s fairly normal for the second night of a back-to-back on both sides, so check back in the pre-game news and notes for an update. I’m guessing the Raptors are favored by 7.5, but that might be showing a sputtering Hawks outfit too much respect on my part.
