The Toronto Raptors have survived the toughest part of their schedule and have reason to be cautiously optimistic heading into the All-Star Break.
Following a free flowing offensive win the Toronto Raptors appear to have weathered the storm of life without DeMar DeRozan. Certainly the body language on court last evening points to the Raptors’ swagger being back. What can’t be denied is from top to bottom, the entire roster functions more smoothly when both All-Stars are in the lineup. So, with just 4 games remaining until the All-Star break, the focus can shift to finishing strong and getting to the break healthy.
During DeRozan’s absence the Toronto Raptors went 3-4 and suffered some humiliating losses. Meanwhile, their opponent last night has gone 2-7 since the loss of Chris Paul. Granted, he is the Clippers facilitator, but LA still boasts core contributors Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick and Jamal Crawford. The fact they are losing at a 77% clip speaks to how quickly tides can turn with the loss of one key asset. And, for as much as Raptors fans voiced reasonable concerns over January’s skid, review of their competition spotlights equal struggles and reasonable explanations for successes.
Dog Days:
The period in the NBA schedule which covers Boxing Day through the All-Star break is referred to as the ‘Dog Days’. It’s no coincidence most players and teams despise this portion of the schedule. At season start there is the excitement of a new campaign, post All-Star break teams are refreshed and eager to get back to business and April offers inspiration to finish strong in preparation for the post season. But, the 6 weeks leading up to the break are when teams/players are dealing with nagging injuries, have undertaken long alternate coast – road trips (for the most part), and dealt with the natural let down that comes after the holidays.
It’s also common during this segment of the schedule for young, inexperienced, lottery ranked teams to catch seeded teams off guard.
To wit, in the five weeks since the calendar turned to 2017 the Sixers achieved 10 of their 18 wins, Denver 9, Minnesota 8, and Phoenix has 7 wins.
Moreover, the Toronto Raptors aren’t alone in their struggles over this period. Diving into the upper echelon of the Association the Spurs suffered half their losses in the New Year (6 of 12 losses) while the East’s top seeded Cavaliers have lost 8 games (15 total on season) during this period.
Breaking down Raptors’ Eastern counterparts New Year performances:
With the Raptors victory over the Clippers and the Cavaliers overtime win over the Wizards, Toronto have reclaimed the third seed and been given a full game cushion over Washington. To get a better idea of how the schedule has effected the East’s main seeds let’s dive into their schedules in terms of how they fared during the ‘Dog Days’ and what they can expect returning from the All-Star Break.
Looking further into each team offers some additional insight:
Cavaliers: 35-15
The Cavaliers will play two back-to-back sets prior to hitting the break facing:
- @Pacers
- @OKC
- Nuggets
- @Wolves
- Pacers
Of those four are seeded teams. Cleveland holds the 3-0 record versus Toronto and will play them once more in the final game of the season.
Notes: in the 8 games Cleveland have played versus the Western Conference on the road their record is 2-6. This may play a role as they complete their schedule given they have 7 more games to play out West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TgNNJQgkWfk
Celtics: 33-18
Heading into the break the Celtics have a West road trip with one back-to-back set:
- @Kings
- @Blazers
- @Jazz
- @Mavs
- Sixers
- @Bulls
Notes: The Celtics still have a number of games to play on the opposite coast where they have demonstrated issues with a 2-4 record. With 9 games still to be played on the opposite coast it could play a big factor in the final win-loss column.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iC91U93yQg8
Wizards: 30-21
Games until All-Star Break:
- @Nets
- Pacers
- OKC
- @Pacers
Notes: like the Cavs and Celtics the Wizards have not fared well versus the Western Conference posting a 1-5 record. Out of the top 4 seeds however the Wizards may take the greatest hit given they have 2 major West Coast trips to complete.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqvbUc1TWXw
Hawks: 30-22
Games until All-Star Break:
- Nuggets
- @Kings
- @Blazers
- @Clippers
Notes: Hawks boast one of the better WC road records having gone 5-5 to date
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNAoJkphz6U
Pacers: 29-22
Games until All-Star Break:
- Cavaliers
- @Wizards
- Bucks
- Spurs
- @Cavaliers
Notes: Toronto has yet to face the Pacers with all 3 games from their regular season scheduled after the break. Not to disparage the 7-game win streak Indy are currently on, but they played the Rockets and Pistons who are struggling and OKC with them on a back-to-back without their key reserve offensive player Enes Kanter. Of the top teams the Pacers have fared better out West, but still have a losing record of 5-7.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RF9XstEyA4A
Bulls:
Games until All-Star Break:
- @Warriors
- @Suns
- @Timberwolves
- Raptors
- Celtics
Notes: If there is one team the Raptors need to beat just for the psychological edge, it is the Bulls. Accordingly, Chicago is mired in chemistry issues, upper management fiddling with in game decisions and could be on the precipice of trading away their cornerstone asset. Obviously the upcoming game would be a great time for Toronto to take advantage of the current state of the Bulls. That said the only East team in the top seeds with a winning West Coast record is the Bulls who boast a 6-5 record.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLdjXp2TfAg
The Others:
Pistons:
From my perspective the Pistons have been the most disappointing team to this point in the season. I envisioned them competing for a home court seed, not clinging to eighth. However, their record against playoff seeds is telling- 10-18 versus their 14-10 record against non seeded teams.
Hornets:
Another perplexing team is Charlotte, who seemingly had the goods to compete on both ends of the court. They’ve struggled worse than the Raptors or Cavaliers during the dog days of the schedule. Worse, they’ve had a full complement of healthy bodies, so there aren’t any excuses to point to. With 31 games remaining 18 are against playoff teams, plus 2 each versus the Heat and Bucks who are embroiled in the mix to capture the final playoff seed.
Bucks:
Of all the teams chasing the lower playoff seeds the dark horse may be the Milwaukee Bucks. Now news (directly from) Khris Middleton will return this week may give the Bucks the shot in the arm they need to finish the season strong. Given the issues Cleveland has versus long, athletic teams Raptors fans should be pulling for the Bucks to be the first round Cavaliers match up.
Heat:
Not to be overlooked, especially considering their current 11-game win streak with 5-wins versus playoff seeds including the Warriors, Rockets and Hawks. Toronto won the lone meeting this season and have 3 games left to play in their series. The Heat have 15 games (13 post break) remaining against playoff seeds including 3 games each versus Toronto and Cleveland as well as 2 each versus the Pacers and Wizards
Knicks:
New York is sitting 4.5 games back of the eighth seed. Worse of their 29 remaining games 18 are against playoff seeds (plus 2 vs the Heat). Suffice to say, I’m feeling confident in my preseason prediction the Knicks were lottery bound.
Toronto Raptors Schedule Notes:
Bottom line there are positives to pull from the schedule. The fact Toronto has registered a .500 road record (6-6) out West for example. Many of the teams in the mix with the Raptors for the top seeds have a much harder schedule heading into the break so with DeRozan back the question is whether the Raptors can build upon their current 2-game win streak. The loss of Zach LaVine may make the Timberwolves slightly vulnerable and then the Raptors have 3 full days to prepare for the Pistons. The true test comes in the back-to-back set at Chicago and then home to the Hornets. These final 2 games should require no extra inspiration, given the Hornets handed Toronto their widest margin of defeat this season and the Bulls – – well I think we all know why the Raptors want that win.
Post All-Star break the Raptors schedule is one of the easiest relative to their competition with the fewest games against the West. There is still ample time for Toronto to fix the issues they had in January and the schedule offers opportunity to do so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=poNCS-4gMAg
In Closing:
Although the Cavaliers have been without the services of J.R. Smith the reality is the Raptors suffered the greatest set backs injury wise losing Patterson for 11 games, DeRozan for 7 and Jared Sullinger who is only recently back on court. None of their competitors had 2 key contributors out for this amount of time.
In addition, while Boston has youth, the Raptors are the only top team utilizing three rookies in critical roles with viable playing time. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, especially if the Raptors want to follow the template set by the Spurs and Gregg Popovich. In fact, with the hardest part of their schedule complete getting Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet playing time while also utilizing Norman Powell and reintroducing Delon Wright could offer them experience while giving the core the rest it needs heading into the post season.
Bottom line, in review of the schedules the Raptors, (at least on paper) have the easiest route to staying in the upper tier with the possibility to still challenge for that top rung. As the Raptors prepare to close strong heading to the break, let’s also hope they learned valuable lessons during the January skid. If they did, the Raptors final 29 games will be spent improving their defense in preparation for April.
For those interested you can follow me on Twitter @TTOTambz in addition to articles on Thunderous Intentions and articles/podcasts on 16 Wins A Ring.
