It can’t be uglier than Saturday. Right? RIGHT?
Coming off back-to-back losses and a 2-3 record on a five-game road trip, the Toronto Raptors return home Monday to host Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks. On balance, this is a nice opportunity for the Raptors to settle things down, as Dallas enters at 28-37. But with their playoff life on the line, the Mavericks are surging a bit, winning four of five and six of eight, with their two losses in that span coming by five and two points. In other words, there’s nothing easy to be had here.
And there shouldn’t be. The Raptors are still without Kyle Lowry, and their formula for winning without him is fairly tenuous. The burden on DeMar DeRozan will continue to be immense, the defense, which has been much better out of the All-Star break, will have to be on-point, and one or two role players will need to out-perform their normal duties in support on offense. Some nights, that’s been Norman Powell. Others, Serge Ibaka. If the Raptors’ 3-point shooters could step up one of these times, well that would just be terrific – with extra attention on DeRozan and opponents swarming the paint, the Raptors have responded by shooting 6-of-40 from deep over their last two and 30.9 percent over the last nine. Bud, your shooters, woof.
They need to figure it out shortly, even if their play of late is understandable given the circumstances. Toronto has Oklahoma City visiting Thursday on the first night of a back-to-back, and their four games after that are against East teams fighting for playoff positioning. They have an easier schedule the rest of the way by opponent quality, but most of the teams they’ll be playing have a lot on the line. The Raptors, meanwhile, are just one game up on the Hawks for the fourth seed, and the Celtics and Wizards are extending beyond reach. Home court is the goal, and it’s an important one that the Raptors can’t loosen their hold on, even here, 16 games from the finish line.
The game tips off at 7:30 on TSN 1/4/5 and TSN 1050.
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To help set the stage, I reached out to Kirk Henderson of Mavs Moneyball, who was kind enough to help us out.
Blake Murphy: Man, so, Dirk Nowitzki reaching 30,000 points. I know how cool it felt when DeMar DeRozan hit just 10,000 points. I can only imagine. What was that moment, that night like for long-time Mavericks fans?
Kirk Henderson: It was really fun, if slightly silly. I say silly because he was already the 6th leading scorer in NBA history, so joining the 30,000 point club feels slightly arbitrary. But I was still giddy and thrilled to watch him reach that milestone. Mavs fans had been holding on to that point when the season started so awfully. It was also *how* he did it. Dirk’s never been a gunner but how great was it to see him score 18 in the first quarter? And then when he hit the shot to take him to 30k, he came right back down and stuck a three on the break. Delicious.
Blake Murphy: At 38, Nowitzki is still kinda kicking it as a useful offensive focal points. Is the entire strategy of the franchise geared around maximizing these Nowitzki twilight years? Because they *should* probably be looking a few years down the line, but they can push a bit to get Nowitzki another postseason appearance or two.
Kirk Henderson: It has been. For too long in my opinion, but that’s largely because since 2012, the Mavericks have always looked to free agency to cure the woes and this season is the first time they’ve acknowledged that the future is coming. For years, Rick Carlisle has been the master of getting the most out of specialized role players. Seth Curry and Harrison Barnes (and to a lesser extent, Nerlens) give the Mavericks an outlook longer than the current season. It’s been nice.
Blake Murphy: Somewhat unexpectedly, the Mavs are only 2.5 games out despite being well-below .500. The bottom of the West is just, ugh. But it’s an opportunity, and the Mavericks have looked more spry of late. How confident are you Dallas can nab the final spot and earn the right to lose to the Warriors in round one?
Kirk Henderson: I’m about 50/50. The Mavericks are humming but so are the Wolves and Nuggets. The Blazers are there too obviously but they have higher aspirations than the eight seed. I’d like to see Warriors vs Mavs because the narratives are vast. Harrison Barnes returns! Brother vs brother. Oh and let’s not forget it’s the 10 year anniversary of the We Believe Warriors shocking the number one seed Mavs.
Blake Murphy: The Mavericks were able to land Nerlens Noel at the deadline. Long a player Raptors fans have lusted after, Noel came at the cost of Justin Anderson and a first that will likely convert to two seconds. You have to like this deal for the Mavericks, right? What have you seen from Noel so far?
Kirk Henderson: I’m in love. He and Dirk have been insane together. Beyond that pairing, he’s just the kind of player Carlisle gets the most from. If he can develop into a player in the mold of Tyson chandler then that would be amazing. For now, I’ll settle for having a young center with upside, even if he may cost and arm and a leg this summer in restricted free agency.
Noel and Dirk (with Barnes off) has been a fire combo. 122 ORTG; 92 DRTG in 39 minutes.
— Evan Zamir (@thecity2) March 8, 2017
Blake Murphy: Jarrod Uthoff is the 23rd different player to get into a game for the Mavericks this year. A cast-off from Raptors camp and then Raptors 905, do you see much potential in that addition? He has some NBA skills there.
Kirk Henderson: So I don’t know much about him but the D-League stalwarts of twitter seem to believe. Also, a few of the site’s writers also want to see what he can do. I hope he gets some real chances in the next few weeks.
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Raptors updates
It is becoming increasingly more difficult to peg down return timelines for any injured Raptors. A day-to-day tag led to three months off for Jared Sullinger, and 17 games missed for Patrick Patterson, and wrist surgery for Kyle Lowry. So when DeMarre Carroll is called questionable, sits a game, returns for a game, and then has to sit again because of residual soreness in his left ankle, what do we make of that? What we should probably make of it is that Carroll tried to gut it out before he was 100 percent and felt worse for the wear on the second night of a back-to-back. It does make it more difficult to figure if he’ll return Monday, though, or if the team will see two days off afterwards as a way of getting Carroll all the way back before asking him to play again.
If Carroll goes, cool. The starting lineup with him in it is a minus-3.5 net rating in 104 minutes, but Carroll’s shooting should come around eventually (in theory), and that group could use the spacing he provides. The Mavericks also go small with multiple wings fairly often, and so the switchability and opportunity to downsize that Carroll provides could be important. If he sits, though, Norman Powell and P.J. Tucker can fill in, and both have had some strong nights of late, albeit rarely at the same time. The starters with Tucker are a plus-4.7 in 27 minutes and the starters with Powell a minus-40.5 in 16 minutes, but these are laughably small samples since the acquisition of Serge Ibaka, and any lineup is liable to struggle without the spacing and playmaking Lowry provides in support of DeRozan. The more options you have available on a given night, though, the better, so here’s hoping Carroll’s fine.
PG: Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Norman Powell, P.J. Tucker
PF: Serge Ibaka, Patrick Patterson, Pascal Siakam
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
TBD: DeMarre Carroll
ASSIGNED: Bruno Caboclo
OUT: Kyle Lowry
Mavericks updates
The acquisition of Nerlens Noel had the wind taken out of its sails almost immediately out of the gate, with Noel suffering a minor knee injury. He’s missed the last two games due to soreness, but he’s traveling with the team to Toronto. As much as Noel sounds as if he wants to play, it also seems unlikely that Dallas would push it if there’s any residual soreness or swelling whatsoever, as there was Saturday. If Noel can go, that’s big for Dallas, as he’s averaged 10 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in just 242. minutes in six games since coming over from the 76ers. If he can’t, that’s more minutes small for Dallas, some time for Canadian Dwight Powell, and perhaps a look for former Raptors 905 player Jarrod Uthoff, who got two minutes of run the other night.
Elsewhere in the rotation, it’s tough to figure how things may go. The Mavericks are tough to explain, with several pieces out-performing expectations or fighting off father time. Their starting lineup has outscored opponents by 3.7 points per-100 possessions over 200 minutes together. Outside of that group, though, their most heavily used lineups involved Deron Williams or Andrew Bogut, so the new-look Mavericks are still an experiment in progress. Keep an eye out for Dorian Finney-Smith, a pre-draft Republic favorite – since the break, the Mavericks have outscored opponents by 9.6 points per-100 possessions with him on the court, and he’s been a nice positive for them all year long.
PG: Yogi Ferrell, J.J. Barea
SG: Seth Curry, Devin Harris, Manny Harris
SF: Harrison Barnes, Dorian Finney-Smith, Nicolas Brussino
PF: Wesley Matthews, (Nerlens Noel), Dwight Powell, Jarrod Uthoff
C: Dirk Nowizki, Salah Mejri, A.J. Hammons
TBD: Nerlens Noel
ASSIGNED: None
OUT: None
The line
The Raptors are 4-point favorites, after the line opened at Raptors -5. The status of Carroll may make a bit of difference, but Noel’s availability will probably move the line more. The over-under is down at 197.5 from an opening mark of 200, a bet on two of the slowest-paced teams in the league grinding things out.
