Mathematically speaking, momentum does not really exist in sports. Or rather, maybe it does, but it only exists as long as, well, it exists. The idea of a snowball effect in a playoff series has a lot more to do with regression or the happening upon of light-bulb moments that change the matchup rather than any evidence of a team simply feeling better and building on it from there. There are anecdotes that suggest otherwise, of course, but the Toronto Raptors own recent history shows they should know better than to trust an encouraging Game 4 victory will propel them from here in any meaningful way.
To wit, the Raptors appeared to wrestle control back from the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2. Even as they talked about the need to avoid a let-down and to match Milwaukee’s likely energy in Game 3, the “momentum” built from that win lasted all of two minutes into the next game. So the Raptors can’t just rest on knowing they were better Saturday and expecting it to make them better again next time out.
“No, each game has a different story,” head coach Dwane Casey said Sunday. “As you have seen, momentum hasn’t meant anything in this series. I think you have to come in with the approach of having a chip on your shoulder because we haven’t accomplished anything. We are back to square one.”
To be clear, they very well might be better, or just as good, and they’re in a good position to control the series from here with home-court advantage over a best-of-three. The lineup change the Raptors made against the Bucks was a logical (if overdue) one, and it opened up some things at both ends of the floor that should help from here. If the Raptors are going to win Game 5 at home Monday, though, it won’t be because of some intangible feeling or ethereal warmth – it will be because they played well again and continued to make important fundamental shifts in how they’re attacking their opponent.
Or, to hear Norman Powell, bringer of Game 4 energy, tell it, momentum is about a continued, consistent energy, and you have to protect it yourself rather than trusting it as a self-sufficient force.
“It’s always about momentum,” he said at practice Sunday. “It’s just the adjustments that are being made, in the game, making momentum plays, momentum stops, getting momentum wins. Now we go home and we have a chance to really push the series in our favor. But we just gotta stay locked in. We can’t relax. I feel like we relaxed a little bit after Game 2 and it seems they’re talking about how they relaxed in Game 4 a little bit. The team that doesn’t relax, the team that comes out the hungriest and wants it more is gonna win the next game and we gotta be that team.”
In other words, the Raptors have to avoid what they did in Game 3, and what they did after taking 2-1 series leads in a pair of matchups a year ago. Part of this is the ebb and flow of the postseason, with teams making adjustments and counter-adjustments, some variance kicking in, and two quality teams both pushing hard for victories (it sometimes goes underrated that the other team very much wants to win, too). The way the Raptors have taken their foot off the gas in games and series, though, means they’ll need to focus hard on maintaining an edge at the Air Canada Centre in Game 5.
“I dunno,” Powell said of the teeter-totter of perceived momentum. “It’s a little bit of a playoff mentality, sometimes, when you get the momentum, you feel like things are gonna go well now because you guys played well, but you’ve still gotta play with that grit, that hunger, every time you step on the floor, like it’s your last game.”
Game 3 still burns
Perhaps working in Toronto’s favor heading into Monday is that the embarrassment of their Game 3 loss is yet to wear off. DeMar DeRozan still appears to be boiling beneath the surface when asked about his field-goal free stinker, and Casey remains perturbed at the way DeRozan (and possibly he himself) was written off.
“Just remember how he was treated after you have a bad game,” Casey said. “Everybody had written him off and he can’t do this, you can’t do that, he’s the worst in history, all that bull crap… Play. The only way you can shut people up is to play. And he should play with a chip on his shoulder just to continue to prove that he is who he is.”
DeRozan played with that chip on Saturday, and when asked about momentum on Sunday, it was evident that it’s still firmly present.
“It can shift at any point, it’s something we need to look at and let it carry over but not be comfortable at all with a win last night,” DeRozan said. “We’ve got to understand we’ve got to have that same anger, intensity, everything that we had the night before we played yesterday going into tomorrow’s game.”
That he used the word anger is telling. DeRozan clearly hasn’t let it go.
“We was embarrassed. That was embarrassing. Looking up at that score, losing the way we did, embarrassing. It’s a feeling you can’t get over,” he said when asked if knocking out the Bucks is the only remedy. “That’ll help a lot. To have that bad taste still in our mouth, it won’t do nothing until we do what we’re supposed to do tomorrow and the next game.”
Adjusting to the Bucks’ adjustments?
There was plenty of talk of anticipating how the Bucks will respond on Monday, not just in terms of the intangible but in terms of a change in tactical approach. While nobody was talking specifics, Casey remained noncommittal on a starting lineup or any other rotation tweaks. It makes sense not to give anything away at this juncture, of course
There is a change that would seem to be fairly obvious to super-charge the starting lineup even further, but that’s not one the Raptors sound ready to make just yet.
“I think he’s giving us what we need,” Casey said of DeMarre Carroll. “Defensively he’s getting into (Giannis) Antetokounmpo, he’s picking him up, he’s making him work. Of course, we need to shoot the ball better, everybody does not just DeMarre. But DeMarre’s giving up what we need defensively. One guy’s going to wear down if you’ve got to guard that guy that whole game because he is a handful but that tag team with DC, P.J. and Patrick is the recipe we’ve got to have.”
Whoever starts and whoever draws the bulk of the assignment needs to be ready for Antetokounmpo to have a bounce-back game. Like everyone expected one from DeRozan on Saturday, Antetokounmpo is unlikely to have as poor a performance again, regardless of how strong the defensive effort. The Raptors, then, know they can’t really give an inch or lean on their Game 4 success slowing him down.
“He’s in the upper echelon of players that carry their team and that’s the only way you can get back on track, to respond,” DeRozan said. “It’s on us to be ready for that as well. Understanding it’s going to be a tougher challenge.”
Notes
- Some fun words from DeRozan on his expectation for the environment at the ACC on Monday: “It’s always great to play at home, be in front of our crowd. The great thing about our crowd is they understand the moment as well. Game 5 atmosphere is definitely going to be a lot different from Game 2 home atmosphere. They understand the moment and to hear that type of thing coming back on your home floor is definitely going to be helpful.”
- And here’s Casey’s plea for Raptors fans to match Bucks’ fans intensity from the last two games: “Yesterday’s environment was a hostile environment and I hope our fans are the same way against them that their fans were against us. They were on us. It was loud, but just our hard play helped us in that regard in Game 4. The first game it was very loud, I mean it was one of the loudest I’ve been around. Portland a few years ago when I was in Dallas in the playoffs was loud. San Antonio was loud and even in Seattle and Utah it would get loud. But last night in MIlwaukee was really really loud particularly in the first game there. We have a great crowd too but that crowd was hot. Hopefully our crowd will come out Monday night and be the same way which I know they will.”
- Bruno Caboclo and Pascal Siakam were assigned to Raptors 905 following Saturday’s game and met up with the junior squad in Rio Grande Valley rather than returning to Toronto. The youngsters could be recalled for Monday’s game to sit on the bench in street clothes before getting re-assigned for Game 2 at Hershey Centre on Tuesday.
- Raptors 905 play Game 1 of the D-League Finals tonight at 8 p.m. on ESPNU, NBA TV Canada, and Facebook Live. The NBA TV Canada note is new, as the plan originally only called for Canadian fans to be able to watch on Facebook.
- The NBA announced Sunday that Raptors-Bucks Game 6 will tip off at either 7 or 8 p.m. on NBA TV on Thursday, April 27. We knew the date and could have guessed the time already, and it probably shouldn’t be surprising that these teams drew the NBA TV slot instead of SA-MEM or HOU-OKC (if necessary). This could change if HOU-OKC is done, though – the Raptors would bump to 7 and likely draw a TNT slot.
