The Toronto Raptors find themselves in need of a victory. After dropping three out of four for the first time all season and with San Antonio and Minnesota on tap later in the week, the Raptors run the genuine risk of a losing skid if they can’t right the ship Wednesday. The trouble being, of course, that it’s the Detroit Pistons visiting, and they’ve turned out to be a pretty solid team in the middle of the Eastern Conference.
Andre Drummond has taken a big step forward, Stan Van Gundy has the kind of shooting around his big he likes, and they’ve survived some injury hardship. The Pistons could use a win, too, having sputtered a bit of late after a 20-15 start. They’ve dropped five of their last seven and are only one game up for the final playoff spot, with Philadelphia giving chase. It’s perhaps too early to think about such things, but six through nine figure to be tight in the East.
That the Raptors and Pistons have never seemed particularly fond of each other, especially at the center position, should make for a gritty battle. We’ve seen plenty of evidence around the league lately that instead of mid-season malaise having an impact on the quality of play, it’s having an impact on tempers, toward referees and each other. Mix in two teams on mini-slides and neither side will be willing to give an inch here.
“It really is that time of the year, 100 per cent. Everybody is like ahhh,” Kyle Lowry said Tuesday. “But this is where good teams make hay. We’re lost three out of four and we have to find a way to get better and finish this month out strong because it’s important for us. Every year since I’ve been (here), we’ve slipped a little bit in January so we have to find a way to get better and grow on this journey in this month.”
It starts at home Wednesday, which will also mark the NBA’s first ever You Can Play night.
The game tips off at 7:30 on Sportsnet One and TSN 1050.
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To help set the stage, I reached out to Dan Feldman of Pro Basketball Talk, and he was kind enough to help us out.
Blake Murphy: Andre Drummond, man. Never count out a young big if something clicks. I know a lot has been made about the psychological factors at play in his improvement, specifically at the free-throw line. What else has he added to his game at either end to push toward the All-Star barrier?
Dan Feldman: Drummond has mostly eliminated the ugly post-ups that effectively wasted possessions. Instead, he’s getting the ball higher in the post and handing it off more frequently. This allows him to still hold the ball on offense — which most players want to do — and be helpful as a distributor.
Blake Murphy: Stanley Johnson has been in and out of the lineup some of late, and his role’s bounced around a bit, too. We talked early in the season about how big a year this is for Johnson (whom I still believe in). How has he responded?
Dan Feldman: Johnson has been hurt, but when healthy, his primary weakness is outside shooting. His 3-pointer is a low-efficiency shot directly, and it suffocates the rest of the offense due to spacing concerns. Until he becomes at least tolerable as a jump-shooter, his defense and everything else will go only so far.
Blake Murphy: Avery Bradley’s defensive impact numbers and metrics continue to pale in comparison to his reputation and the eye-test. Is this a case of a high activity level being mistaken for defensive acumen? Are the numbers missing something Bradley is providing?
Dan Feldman: Bradley is arguably best in the NBA at locking up an opposing guard. He doesn’t get many steals or blocks, which is fine and affects some advanced numbers. But he also doesn’t switch well, which is a real problem that shows up in some advanced numbers. He has also fallen back to his career baseline as a poor defensive rebounder, even for a guard, after a superb season on the glass last season — another real issue.
Blake Murphy: The Pistons’ offense finally looks like a Stan Van Gundy offense, with a third-ranked 38.1-percent mark spotting up around Drummond’s gravity in the lane. The volume still isn’t quite where I’d expect it, but Detroit punishes teams that give them open looks. Is this what you guys had been waiting for? Does Reggie Jackson’s absence in the pick-and-roll threaten this some?
Dan Feldman: The offensive results are nearing the desired effect, but the method to get there has changed. The Pistons are far less dependent on the pick-and-roll than before, using more of a motion offense. The Jackson-Drummond pick-and-roll was still a staple, and it’s missed. But it’s no longer such a centerpiece, so Jackson’s absence shouldn’t be felt quite as strongly.
Blake Murphy: Detroit’s defense has also stepped up a ton. Somewhat paradoxically, they’re forcing a ton of turnovers without sending opponents to the line, an interesting aggression-conservatism dynamic. Is that a product of design by Van Gundy, or just kind of the way it’s gone with the personnel they have?
Dan Feldman: Van Gundy’s teams have tended to play conservatively defensively. Pressure defenders like Avery Bradley and Stanley Johnson alter that scheme, though. I’m not sure whether Van Gundy’s approach has changed — after all, he built this roster — or whether he’s just handling the player he has. Either way, you’re right: This defense looks different.
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Raptors updates
Technically, the Raptors come in here with an empty injury report. It’s possible that’s not updated yet, or that everyone is healthy. At practice on Tuesday, I was told that Fred VanVleet is still pretty sore after suffering a right knee contusion Monday but that there was no structural damage and he’s considered day-to-day. Alfonzo McKinnie has also been dealing with some right knee soreness but appeared to get in a full practice. Kyle Lowry, who returned Monday after a week off – without playing any basketball to shake the rust off, by the way – said he was sore after the game (especially since he landed on his butt three times in a short span) but not to a degree he can’t manage.
“A little sore, but I expected it to feel that way,” Lowry said. “A little more treatment today, but I feel great. Another day, another dollar baby. Just keep getting better, continue to grow…It’s going to be sore and it’s going to be sore for a little while, but it’s a bone bruise so we’ll continue to work through it. It’s about pain tolerance but I got a pretty high pain threshold.”
It doesn’t sound as if Lowry’s going to miss any more time, then, although the second half of the season could bring rest nights on back-to-backs with it. VanVleet is the name to watch closer to game-time, as Lorenzo Brown figures to be recalled if VanVleet can’t go. I estimate Brown at about 30 of his 45 days used, so the Raptors will have to start using those conservatively. VanVleet has also been playing some quality ball the last week or so. Delon Wright figures to see a minutes boost in either case, and if VanVleet sits, Norman Powell would probably draw back into the second unit.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Delon Wright, (Fred VanVleet), Lorenzo Brown
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: OG Anunoby, C.J. Miles, Malcolm Miller
PF: Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, (Alfonzo McKinnie)
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
OUT: None
TBD: Alfonzo McKinnie, Fred VanVleet
905: Bruno Caboclo
Pistons updates
The Pistons are without Reggie Jackson and Jon Leuer, as they have been for a bit now. They’ve also been without Stanley Johnson a fair amount, as he’s played just one game in the last eight due to a hip injury. He’s listed as questionable on the injury report. Adding to all of that is that Avery Bradley (groin) and Luke Kennard (thumb) both missed practice Tuesday. Neither is on the official injury report, but beat writers referred to them as questionable.
If all three of the names up in the air play, the Pistons should be a tough out. The Raptors will need to make their push early and lean heavily on the starters, though – almost every starting lineup iteration Detroit has tried has been outscored, and their seven most commonly used lineups on the year are all negatives by net rating, four of them double-digit negatives (some of those include Jackson). The projected starters if Bradley can go are a -11.8 in 109 minutes. In the event all three of those 50/50 names sit, the Pistons wouldn’t have a five-man group available to them with a positive net rating that’s played more than 24 minutes. That’s an extreme scenario, obviously, and it illustrates the point that Detroit has played well on the whole without any sort of go-to group.
PG: Ish Smith, Dwight Buycks
SG: (Avery Bradley), (Luke Kennard), Langston Galloway
SF: Reggie Bullock, (Stanley Johnson)
PF: Tobias Harris, Anthony Tolliver, Henry Ellenson
C: Andre Drummond, Eric Moreland, Boban Marjanovic
OUT: Reggie Jackson, Jon Leuer
TBD: Stanley Johnson, Luke Kennard, Avery Bradley
Grand Rapids: Reggie Hearn, Kay Felder
The line
The Raptors are 8.5-points favorites with a 213.5 over-under.
