Three up, three down. Not such a hard week, considering the opponents, but some much-needed stability for the Toronto Raptors. That was, until the injury news: Pascal Siakam (stretched groin), Marc Gasol (strained hamstring), and Norman Powell (subluxated shoulder) are all out indefinitely.
The explanation for this weekly column at Raptors Republic, called The Black Box Report, is fairly simple. Is it a literary journal? Maybe; it sure sounds like it. If it were, I would probably read it. There would be stories about physical victory but existential defeat, like Ozymandias of Watchmen (1985), or the Toronto Raptors losing Norman Powell and Marc Gasol in an otherwise-happy win over the Detroit Pistons. Unfortunately, this is not that journal. This column is for me and Samson Folk to simultaneously look forwards and back, explicating the under-examined and trying to explain what went, goes, and maybe even will go, on under the hood. The black box is the vessel inside of which all information is stored, and it’s known for its opacity. Hopefully, this column can add some transparency to what actually puts the points on the board.
It’s also been brought to our attention that the Black Box Report reminds people of plane crashes. Well, we all need to remember our roots as Raptors fans. Times can be too good, and sometimes being a fan can be too easy. We need to remember where we came from. Furthermore, this column is now the top hit when you google ‘black box report.’ So whose column is a plane crash now?
Looking Back – Zatzman
Games:
7:30 pm EST on Saturday December 14 against the Brooklyn Nets – 110-102 W
7:30 pm EST on Monday December 16 against the Cleveland Cavaliers – 133-113 W
7:00 EST on Wednesday December 18 @ the Detroit Pistons – 112-99 W
Double teams, a redux
Nick Nurse was implicitly clear when asked about the amount he’s sending double-teams that, yes, he know’s it’s not optimizing his minutes on the floor, but it’s important work in preparing his team to be at its most flexible and dynamic come the playoffs. So short-term pain for long-term gain, or whatever. Toronto may no longer employ Kawhi Leonard, but it certainly still employs his mindset that the season is naught but 82 practices.
So Toronto didn’t use double-teams at all this week against three sub-par teams, none of whom boasted healthy, elite scorers, but they still did. The Raptors used doubles less often than against teams like the Houston Rockets or Miami Heat, but that smaller number allowed the Raptors to employ doubles more selectively, more as a proactive weapon than reactive defense. Sometimes it worked, and sometimes it, uh, didn’t.
But rest assured that the Raptors are just working out the kinks on an important playoff weapon.
Better role for Siakam, better roll for Siakam
It’s almost impossible for one player to be a team’s best initiator and best finisher and for that team to have a good offense. Only LeBron James, James Harden, Luka Doncic, and a few other guys are capable of that. Toronto forced Pascal Siakam into that position for a stretch of a few weeks, but Siakam couldn’t lift his game to the level of LeBron James. That it was even a question is yet more crazy evidence of how far Siakam has come. Of course, Toronto needed to force Siakam into the stratosphere of usage because Kyle Lowry was out of the lineup.
Well, now Lowry is back, and Toronto can properly use Siakam as the team’s primary finisher and Lowry as the team’s primary initiator. Siakam’s touches per game and time of possession have all dropped since Lowry returned. At first, that was a problem, as Lowry and Serge Ibaka struggled with their shots. But as Lowry and Ibaka returned to their deadly selves, it allowed Siakam to hoist less responsibility and thrive in a smaller role. Siakam averaged four assists per game this week, which is probably the right number for him in his role.
The return of Lowry to his peak also, indirectly, allows Toronto to use Siakam more creatively. Lowry occupies more of the defense, and his very presence means the defense doesn’t know how the Raptors will initiate or with whom. Against the Nets, Toronto used a clever, disguised post entry to force the defense into immediate discomfort.
Toronto shouldn’t shoehorn Siakam into an ossified role, giving him the ball in the high post or at the top of the key, and asking him to create something out of nothing. When the offense is diversified, with Lowry and Fred VanVleet mixing in varied attacks, Siakam is unleashed at his best. Toronto faced poor defenses this week, but they still did a great job of creating advantages for Siakam instead of letting him attack from static positions.
Of course, all of this is for naught if he’s out for long. Michael Grange is reporting that the team is only being cautious with Siakam, and that the injury is fairly mild. He will certainly miss time, but hopefully not too much. If a fresh Siakam returns to an in-rhythm Lowry, that would be a best-case scenario for the Raptors.
Ibaka had a defensive night to remember
It’s not hyperbole to say that Marc Gasol has been an All-Defensive Team level defender so far this year. He has been Toronto’s most important defender, barking out orders, shutting off the paint, and cleaning the glass as necessary. He creates oodles of turnovers with his surprisingly quick bear trap hands, and he never jumps himself out of position. Samson did an excellent job last week pointing out how phenomenal Gasol has been, as well as how much drop-off there has been when Ibaka replaces him, especially in the trapping, rotate-like-crazy defense.
And now the Raptors could be without Gasol for an extended period because of a hamstring strain he suffered against Detroit. Ibaka, though, finished the Detroit game with a game-high +17, scoring 25 and collecting 13 all-important rebounds. He had the lowest defensive rating on the team for the game, and he contested a team-high eight two-point shots. He did an excellent job staying in position, challenging shots, and using his body as well as his arms to eat up space in the paint. His communications seemed excellent as well. Basically, he mimicked Marc Gasol’s defensive impact after Gasol went down. If Ibaka can do that for 30 minutes a night while Gasol is on the shelf, Toronto could be able to survive yet another in its long line of injury woes. When Ibaka sits, of course, the onus will be on Rondae Hollis-Jefferson and Chris Boucher to carry the torch. They did commendable jobs when Ibaka himself was injured, and there’s no reason they can’t do the same now that Gasol will be out for some time.
Looking Forward – Folk
Games:
7:30 pm EST on Friday December 20 against the Washington Wizards
3:30 pm EST on Sunday December 22 against the Dallas Mavericks
7:00 pm EST on Monday December 23 @ the Indiana Pacers
12:00 pm EST on Wednesday December 25 against the Boston Celtics
Bank roll thick like that neck on Sabonis
When Danny Brown shouted out this line he was of course referencing Arvydas Sabonis – who did have a very thick neck – but the Raptors are going to have to contend with Domantas Sabonis, who thanks to his 4-year $77M extension, has a thick bank roll. Perhaps more troubling than that though, will be his role with the Pacers when they play them. Or even worse considering Sabonis is the most prolific dive man in the NBA (5.8 possessions a game), his rolls to the rim.
As Louis noted above, Serge Ibaka just had a terrific game against the wrecking ball that is Andre Drummond. While Sabonis offers a more controlled and less explosive version of that strength, it’s still that strength. And the Pacers rely heavily on the two-man game of Sabonis and Brogdon to keep their offense afloat, as their wing performances have been a little bit inconsistent this year outside of TJ Warren. Ibaka’s job as a deterrent to all the actions they run through Sabonis will be one of – if not the most important – things the Raptors can do to slow down the Pacers offense.
The way the Raptors handle the Sabonis matchup should speak volumes about how they view the Pacers. The Pacers don’t turn the ball over that often and have one of the best assist to turnover ratios in the league, that paints a picture of a team that should be able to punish double teams easily. However (comma) the Pacers are reluctant to shoot from downtown relative to the rest of the league (29th in attempts) and that opens up the idea that the Raptors can be selective in their closeouts and funnel the ball to the Pacers weaker players. A strategy that the Raptors perfected for a time, and if executed properly should work against the Pacers.
The Pacers are going to try and slow this game way down and run things through Sabonis and Brogdon, hoping to keep the Raptors’ defensive ball-hawks at bay, and take away a chunk of their fast break offense. And it’ll be up to the Raptors to respond in kind, by digging in on the Pacers ancillary playmakers, forcing players to the baseline and returning to the crisp rotations that have defined this team for so long.
Throw some snow on Kemba
I have a certain distaste for the Celtics, and probably always will. That’s why it’s so vexing that I like their team so much. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Grant Williams – I like all of these guys a lot. It’s a far cry from the team I hated most, a team that employed one of the griftiest players to ever hoop, Isaiah Thomas, and his season where he torched every team in the pick n’ roll because the refs let him carry the ball and wait for the defenders to commit to his picked up dribble, before he would put it back down and attack again. Anyway… Walker is not that type of player, he’s sensational. And with the Raptors’ ever-present weakness against small, lightning quick guards, he looks primed to steal the show on Dec. 25.
Walker has been burning teams down in December. Walking into the arenas, pouring gasoline everywhere and burning the place down. His monthly averages of 27 points and 6.5 assists on 49/45/80 splits are outrageous. He’s also taking a Curry-esque 11 triples a game and hitting nearly 5 of them. He’s one of the few players in the league who annihilate ‘drop’ defenses with regularity, and he can put opposing guards in the blender like few else.
So, it seems important that Fred VanVleet should be back for that game. The elite NBA defender in the flesh, ready to take on the gunslinging Walker, as Walker does his best Curry impression. Who better than VanVleet to keep up with an electric guard who’s doing most of his damage from downtown? VanVleet has grown his game since the Finals, but he certainly hasn’t abandoned this aspect of it.
Luckily, I’ve found Louis’ diary where he has all of VanVleet’s defensive matchup numbers written (it’s true, it exists, don’t doubt it) and I’ve found some damn fine proof of VanVleet’s excellence vs. Walker. When Walker had the misfortune of lining up against VanVleet earlier this year, he registered the following statistics: 0-5 from the field and 3 turnovers in roughly 25 possessions. Looks like Walker might be coming up to Canada to catch a cold on Christmas. Courtesy of Mr. Bet on Yourself.
Burning work and an exercise in optimism
I had a good deal to say about Siakam and I wrote it all out here, but then the news broke that he was injured and now that’s all in the toilet. It’s very late and I just finished watching the latest Star Wars film, so I’d like to allow my consciousness to flow onto the page and allow some of my optimism to bleed through.
It would have been really cool for Siakam to dominate on Christmas day, and it would have really been something for his wonderful narrative this year to have been affirmed on the regular seasons biggest stage. But, it’s perhaps more fitting that the Raptors depth and “next man up” maxim will be center stage for this Christmas game against the Celtics. The Raptors have weathered storms without Lowry, Ibaka, Anunoby, VanVleet, and now Siakam, Powell and Gasol. Basically, the Raptors have had their team stripped down to a skeleton crew at a few different junctions this season. And yet, this team comes out on the other side, reveling in inspiring storylines for underdogs and punching up against a league that is far too eager to forget the Champs.
I’m certainly not a “give Toronto more attention” type of guy, I don’t write about it. However (comma) I enjoy the Raptors being talked about by the ‘Inside the NBA’ crew as much as the next person, and it would be a present to all the fans in a way if we could capture the eye of the American audience for what is likely the first time since Ring Night.
I also liked the movie!
Have a blessed day.
