Gonna use this pic at every opportunity.
Halfway through the trip the Raptors are 1-1 with two more to go: GSW tonight and then Portland tomorrow on a back-to-back. Restoring some stability after a 1-6 start is the goal and the Warriors offer something of a statement opportunity, one that was missed against Phoenix and Boston. Curry dropped 38 against the Clippers as they split a pair with LA so we’re catching him in prime form after he went 9-14 3FG against LA. Defending the three-point shot is the main worry as against Phoenix and Sacramento the Raptors conceded 52% and 44%, respectively.
You can argue that conceding the three like that is part of the Raptors defensive strategy as they’d prefer their bigs not to have to deal with incoming drives, especially given their lack of…um…experience and talent. I can convince myself that that’s a initial strategy for the aforementioned reason, but if teams are shooting an average of 42% from three against you (bottom third in the league), then that may call for some reflection on how haphazardly the Raptors are defending the three.
More specifically, the Raptors strategy seems to be to help wherever help is needed and then wildly rotate to where the shot’s coming from. They clearly believe in the strength of their personnel as Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby and capable of covering ground and the former is roaming most of the time. Since they’re always scrambling to guard different people on defense they become more susceptible to fakes which killed them against Phoenix. Against Sacramento it hurt them early on but they recovered through some extremely efficient offense and contributions from the bench, notably Terence Davis and Chris Boucher. The latter continuing his generally strong play and the former finally finding a rhythm.
Davis should be able to contribute more consistently except that his defensive play hampers his offensive contribution. The guy is prone to bad fouls and takes a little while to get into the game. If he starts off poor he generally is poor throughout. He should get some time against Wiggins which will be a half-decent test as the Raptors will very likely switch a lot as Siakam/OG/Boucher and Co. deal with Green/Wiggin. But the matchup to worry about here is clearly Steph Curry, who the Raptors will probably start with Kyle Lowry or Fred VanVleet, likely Lowry. The other guard is 6’6″ Kelly Oubre Jr., and the Raptors have felt comfortable with VanVleet guarding bigger guards for stretches (e.g., Tatum). Though it’s conceivable that Norman Powell, Terence Davis and Malachi Flynn get some time as well. Personally, I would love to see Flynn check him just so we can gauge where he is defensively. Most rookies lick their chops at such matchups and I want to see him have a shot at it.
We also get to see Brad Wanamaker who hurt the Raptors in the post-season, and he only adds to the three-point worries the Warriors pose. They’re 11th in the league in percentage of FGAs that are threes at 42% which is to be expected. Here’s the shocker: the Raptors are #1 at 48% of shots being threes. They both make them at the same clip – 36%. So this game just might come down to, like most NBA games seem to, on how efficiently the Raptors shoot from outside.
Neither team has superb shot blocking but you can argue that the Raptors are better at attacking off the dribble, so the team reduces their dependency on the three and ventures into the paint might be throwing a curveball here. This does slow the game down which you can argue benefits the Warriors more which is quite a turnaround given their history in recent years. The Raptors have for the most part struggled to create in the half-court and prefer a higher tempo game, and if both sides to the same, it’ll be a track meet.
The Raptors are favoured by 2. I say we take it and Chris Boucher and Kyle Lowry have big games.
