Confidence meets talent.
Prior to Stephen Curry being taken out for rest, he and Scottie Barnes were set to collide. Funny right? There’s no comparison between the two except for their audaciousness. Curry entered the league stamped as a shooter, of course, but he was able to wow and surprise opposing teams and fans because of his stupendous range and quick trigger. Barnes’ bar is significantly lower to clear because everyone cautioned patience with his jumper. Citing its inefficiency, a truncated energy transfer, and the changing of mechanics. At the behest of his coaching staff and the changing dynamic of the Raptors’ offense, Barnes has been launching roughly 4 attempts a game over the last 11 outings. The result? 43 percent and a handful of jumpers that belong in the shot diet of Curry, Buddy Hield, etc. Some of the league’s best snipers.
Pascal Siakam, Norman Powell and OG Anunoby are considered the success stories of the Raptors’ shooting program, but outside of the surprising potency, Barnes’ shot diet shares virtually no similarities to theirs. Couched into the spacing of DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, and Kawhi Leonard offenses, Siakam and Anunoby both took over half their threes (Powell a smidge under) from the snug corners of the court. Their shots were the product of predictable defensive breakdowns, wherein the ball funnels to them. Barnes is taking less than 20 percent of his threes from the corner. And more than anything, his attempts seem like basketball’s analogous equal to Isildur grabbing his father’s sword and cutting the One Ring off of Sauron’s gauntlet. Incredible power seized in the moment.
The rapid burst of self-creation that Barnes has shown at the NBA level is a sight to behold, but even the most bullish of his pre-draft supporters wouldn’t have predicted 41 percent on pull-up triples, albeit on low volume. Barnes is a glowing example of the “I’d rather have to tell a guy to dial it back rather than dial it up” maxim proving its worth. NBA players are typically a giant fountain of skill, and with Barnes spurning any ‘sleeping dragon’ comps — He’s awake, and a dragon. An ‘Awake Dragon.’ — he’s going to give you immediate feedback on any of your burning questions, because he’s going to try it out, whatever it is.
“How old is he? 19? 20? Sheesh.” – Kevin Durant on Scottie Barnes
Barnes’ willingness to try will likely be a defining feature of his NBA career, and it’s exactly why the trajectory of his outside shot is categorically different than what the Raptors have been teasing out of players before him. The corner has incubated many shooters on their way to potency from long distance, but Barnes seems to have skipped all of that. Launching as a trailer above the break in transition, pulling up late in games, and growing next to Siakam. Why is Siakam so important? Well, Barnes receives twice as many passes leading to 3-point attempts from VanVleet, but he still hits more when the pass comes from Siakam (24 percent from VanVleet, 54 percent from Pascal). Those two create virtually all of Barnes’ catch-and-shoot opportunities.
Teams sink hard against Siakam. It’s why his mid-range volume has received such a bump this year, and when teams sink they don’t want to surrender the corner, they want to surrender threes above the break. They rotate accordingly, and it’s the wise thing to do. But, Barnes is an “Awake Dragon,’ so he’ll try anything. Once Siakam returned from injury and started bending the defense in this way, Barnes started to form up off of Siakam’s drives — mirroring his movements, maintaining passing lanes, and hitting threes with a chasm of space between him and his defender.
Great players are symbiotic. They can’t help but affect each other’s games, and the advantages that Siakam creates moved Barnes into a place where he skipped a step in the Raptors typical development. Credit to Siakam for creating advantages, yes, but for Barnes to take all of this in stride as a rookie, to bypass the mental blocks that no doubt existed for him and to shoot with no hesitation — a hell of a player.
A natural checkpoint for players in their journey to ‘shooter’ status is whether or not they draw the stunt. The Warriors game earlier in the season was Barnes’ first multi-triple game, and the start of this 11-game run of shooting. Draymond Green stunts and has no designs on contesting Barnes as a shooter. With Green out, we won’t get to see if his defensive calculus has changed, which is really too bad. But, the question remains: How quickly can Barnes earn a reputation?
Powered by confidence that borders on arrogance. Two titans of audacity. The league’s all time three-point leader, and a Rookie of the Year frontrunner who’s only discovering this part of his game. Barnes’ volume is still low. The data suggests three-point numbers stabilize at around 750 attempts, and he’s only attempted 57. Mechanical changes are still ongoing, and there’s a lot of variance between his makes and misses. But, with his run of form starting against the Warriors, and Curry recently setting the record, what a unique opportunity to check in.
Have a blessed day.
