The fortunes of one (or more) franchises will change this evening. You don’t have to look too far into history to see what the impact of winning the lottery can have on a club, the city and the fans. Tim Duncan, Derrick Rose, LeBron James and Dwight Howard are fairly recent examples of how the face of a franchise can transform overnight, there is one similarity between this draft and the ones those players were drafted in: there was little in the way of there being a consensus #1 pick (Michael Beasley and Emeka Okafor aside). This wasn’t the case the last time the Raptors had the top pick when they selected Andrea Bargnani, that was a crap-shoot of a draft which was overshadowed by the NBA’s new rules which prevented Kevin Durant from coming out early.
The draft is a weak one with Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes and Perry Jones staying put, all three would have likely gone in the lottery. That doesn’t change the landscape of the top two, though. Kyrie Irving remains on top of every draft board with general opinion being that he’s going to be an All-Star for years to come. The praise is impressive because Irving doesn’t possess the magnificent athletic ability and explosiveness of his soon-to-be NBA counterparts, his merit is due to his play, basketball IQ, maturity and temperament. It’s rare for a freshman to garner so much isolated praise, and perhaps that is due to the rest of the field being regarded as second-best. The feeling going into tonight is that this is a draft where there is a gulf between the first and second picks, with the rest of the pack a few horse lengths behind. You have to wonder though where Irving would have ranked if only a couple of guys like Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio, Johnny Flynn, Darren Collison or Brandon Jennings were in this draft. Only time will tell whether this draft is Irving and the rest, but if history is any indication we are in for a surprise.
In 2008, the battle for top spots was between Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley, but the honors for second-best player in the draft is between Russell Westbrook (4th) and Kevin Love (5th). In 2009, Hasheem Thabeet’s wingspan and potential defensive impact was the story behind Blake Griffin, but it was Tyreke Evans (4th) and Stephen Curry (7th) that stole the show. For a drastic example, in 2005 Marvin Williams was chosen at #2 with Deron Williams and Chris Paul following behind him. It’s rare that the top two picks turn out to be the two best players in the draft, in fact you have to go back to the 1994 draft when Glenn Robinson and Jason Kidd were taken as the top two picks to even begin to construct that argument.
Even if the Raptors miss out on the top two picks, it doesn’t mean that this draft is for naught. It will come down to, as it usually does, two things: 1) internal scouting and 2) luck. NBA General Managers are wholly dedicated individuals who have teams of expert staff to help them look into the future when drafting, and with all that expertise the success rate of nailing a top pick is at best 50% (based on #1 picks since 1980 and whether the team selecting first got the best player in the draft). Leaving the Irving hype aside for a moment, there is an approximately 50% chance that the best player in the draft will slip to #2, and playing this game further, a 25% chance that they’ll be at #3. The job of the GM becomes real easy if they win the lottery, and excruciatingly difficult if they get the third pick because even though history states that there’s plenty to be had there (Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Pau Gasol), it also shows that you can fail miserably (Adam Morrison, Mike Dunleavy, Raef LaFrentz, Darius Miles) if you’re not careful. If the first pick is a no-brainer this year, the third is a landmine which can blow up in your face leaving you covered in Euro blood. Again.
The 1994 Magic are the last team to win the lottery after finishing with the worst record in the league, so the chances of Minnesota landing the top pick don’t look great, which means there is hope for the rest. Or maybe the 16-year drought is about to break? If the Timberwolves (25% chance of getting the #1 pick) win the lottery, would they select yet another point guard with the rights to Rubio still in their hands and Jonny Flynn under contract? If the Washington Wizards (11.9%) win the lottery, drafting a point guard is out of the question, thus opening up a massive trade possibility for teams looking to shore up the point guard position. Or maybe if Minnesota wins, will they finally entertain trading Rubio. The Kings have the fifth best shot of winning and they already have Tyreke Evans at the point, who they could theoretically move to the off-guard. Of course, all this is pending the stamp of the NBA’s labor agreement.
Here’s my gut-feeling: I think Irving’s stock will drop as we get closer to draft day, or at least he won’t be deemed as untouchable as he is today. Right now he has a stronghold on the top spot, come draft day that is liable to change. Two years ago it was impossible to get the Clippers to trade Blake Griffin, that isn’t the case with this draft, or at least it won’t be come D-Day.
Here’s a little summary of how the Raptors could get their PG, if they decide they need one:
- Minnesota wins: Ask about Rubio.
- Cleveland wins: Forget it, they’re keeping the pick.
- Toronto wins: Haha.
- Washington wins: Already got John Wall, for sure they’ll trade.
- Sacramento wins: Leaning towards them swinging the pick because of Evans, but I’m being hopeful.
Nets win: Already got Deron Williams, trade possibility here for somebody.Aww….Utah has that pick.
Some numbers:
- The Raptors have approximately a 15.6% chance for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd pick (so a total of 46.9% for the top three).
- Their highest odds are for the fifth pick – 26.5%, followed by the 4th at 22.6%.
- They lowest they can finish is 6th – a 4% chance, so if they get the sixth we would be very, very unlucky.
The chart below has all the details (click on it for a bigger version):
Bryan Colangelo will be representing the Raptors tonight. Lady luck, please shine on us.
