Toronto Raptors Salary Cap Update – Post-Patterson Signing, Novak Trade

It was just one day ago that I did a deep dive into the Toronto Raptors’ salary cap situation to try and make heads or tails out of what is permanently a murky situation. The CBA, it ain’t child’s play.

Because the offseason is the best, that cap review was relevant for all of about seven minutes. Since then, the Raptors have signed Patrick Patterson to a three-year, $18 million deal (#2Pat4Sure6Mill) and traded Steve Novak to the Utah Jazz, along with a second-round pick, for Diante Garrett, who they will waive.

So, let’s update. I’ll move through things a little faster this go-‘round, since we went deep with explanation in the last one.

All salary data comes via Sham Sports, except in the case of reported deals, where assumptions are stated. Help sorting through exceptions and the like comes via Larry Coon’s CBA FAQ.
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Salary cap – $63.2M, Luxury Tax – $77M

On The Books – Guaranteed Contracts and Marcus Camby
Kyle Lowry – $12M(Technically, his first year salary could be as low as $10.725M or as high as $13.425M, but we are assuming a straight 12-12-12-12)
DeMar DeRozan – $9.5M
Amir Johnson – $7M (only $5M is guaranteed, so the Raptors could clear $2M by waiving him by Jan. 10)
Landry Fields – $6.25M (using the stretch provision could knock this to $2.083M over three years)
Patrick Patterson – $6M (Technically, his first year salary could be as low as $5.575M or as high as $6.475M, but we are assuming a straight 6-6-6)
Chuck Hayes – $5.96M (using the stretch provision could knock this to $1.987M over three years)
Lou Williams – $5.45M
Jonas Valanciunas – $3.68M
Tyler Hansbrough – $3.33M
Terrence Ross – $2.79M
Marcus Camby – $646,609 remaining on buyout (even if Camby returns, as he reportedly hopes to, the Raptors would not receive any relief on this number in any realistic scenario)

Non-Guaranteed Deals, Rookies and Cap Holds
Greivis Vasquez – $3.2M qualifying offer ($5.38M cap hold if QO rescinded)
Nando De Colo – $1.83M qualifying offer ($1.9M cap hold if QO rescinded)
Julyan Stone – $948,163 if on roster past Monday
Dwight Buycks – $816,482 if on roster past July 22
Diante Garrett – $915,243 with no guarantee date (his deal would be guaranteed on Jan. 10)
Bruno Caboclo – $1.22M cap hold ($1.46M his likely salary at 120% of scale)
Bebe Nogueira – $1.47M cap hold ($1.7M his likely salary at 120% of scale)

The Cap Sheet, July 5, 11 a.m.
Regardless of what could happen or what assumptions we’ll make later, this is what the cap sheet currently looks like for the Raptors:

You could also pencil in DeAndre Daniels, the second-round pick who may or may not play in Europe this season but is tough to account for financially since he has no cap hold and no rookie scale to follow for a contract (he can negotiate whatever). He’s a bit of a wildcard, but the assumption, which will make more sense shortly, is that he won’t be with the team.

The Raptors have $62.6 million in contracts guaranteed to 10 roster players, meaning once cap holds are accounted for (even if they renounced everyone other than those 10, minimum roster charges for the final two roster spots would add over $1M on the books), the team has no “cap space.”

That does not, however, mean they don’t have the flexibility to add pieces around these 10 names.

What the Cap Sheet Really Looks Like, July 5, 11 a.m.
Stone, Buycks and Garrett are almost surely gone. Let’s also assume that Caboclo is going to play in Toronto, as has been stated, and that Bebe is coming as well (this has been hinted at). We’ll assume they get 120 percent of scale because everyone gets 120 percent of scale, with very rare exceptions. If you think the Raptors would risk pissing off players by going less, feel free to knock a couple hundred K off the salaries for the rookies.

Anyway, this is what the books “really” look like, for the purposes of figuring out how much room the team has to operate:

With the 12 names assumed to be on the books, the Raptors have a hair over $11M to work with to stay under the cap.

How Can They Use That Space?
Vasquez – They’re free to sign Vasquez to whatever deal they like without concern for the cap, since they have his Bird rights. Rumors have Vasquez earning in the $5M range, but assume the range is $4-6M to be safe.

De Colo – Personally, I think De Colo is as good as gone and the team will rescind his QO as soon as a Vasquez deal is done. There’s a minor risk he would sign a $1.8M qualifying offer, and while that’s not a killer salary, the Raptors don’t have the room – roster or financial – to simply allow him to do so.

Mid-Level Exception – The team is free to use the full mid-level exception as a team that’s over the cap and a non-taxpayer. There is a minor concern, however, if Vasquez comes in around $6M, that the combination of the MLE and Bi-Annual Exception (BAE for short, because you gotta show those veterans love) would push the Raptors above the tax line. That would mean that the “apron” (roughly $81M) would become a hard cap for the Raptors that they would be unable to cross for the entire season. That’s a very minor concern given the roster and financial realities for this team, but it’s worth noting.

Anyway, the MLE can be split between multiple players or used on a single name. Contracts can be up to four years long, starting at $5.305M in year one and, if raises are maxed, totalling $22.7M. A three-year full MLE with full raises would total $16.64M. The BAE can’t exceed a two-year deal, meaning if it’s used entirely on one player (almost always the case), it would be either a one-year, $2.077M deal or a two-year, $4.25M deal.

Playing With Vasquez+MLE Assumptions
So, they have 12 players if the rookies sign on, and it sounds as if a Vasquez deal is getting done. In that case, here’s what the roster looks like by position:

PG: Lowry, Vasquez, Williams
SG: DeRozan, Ross, Vasquez, Williams
SF: DeRozan, Ross, Fields, Caboclo
PF: Johnson, Patterson, Fields, Hansbrough
C: Valanciunas, Hayes, Nogueira

I placed players in multiple positions there, but let’s get a different look:

Guards: Lowry, Vasquez, Williams
Wings: DeRozan, Ross, Fields, Caboclo
Bigs: Johnson, Patterson, Valanciunas, Hayes, Hansbrough, Nogueira

The team is fairly set with three capable ball-handlers and, whether or not you like the names that follow the three primary frontcourt players, there are at least a lot of interior names. But damn, do they need another wing, or what?

I know, I know, Williams and Vasquez can play the two, and the Lowry-Vasquez look was often a great one. That’s fine, and I’d be content with that being a core strategic element entering the season. However, the wing rotation is still painfully thin – an injury to Lowry, DeRozan or Ross would mean Fields and even Caboclo are being relied upon fairly heavily. If the team wants to use the full MLE to add another wing, preferably one with size, then the most they can offer Vasquez is $5.8M in year one, which would have to be considered the absolute high end of his range.

Again: The Raptors should have room beneath the tax line to re-sign Vasquez and use the full MLE. That would leave them with a roster of 14 and possibly enough room to sign a 15th on a minimum deal. It’s also possible they have more room than we think based on the structure of deals for Lowry and Patterson, but those are unsafe assumptions. The key here is that the team has room for a reasonable Vasquez deal (unless you find a $5M AAV unreasonable, which you’re within your rights to) and use of the MLE.

Wing Targets
Unfortunately, there aren’t many great wing targets available in the MLE price range (the team could always make further moves to carve out space, or make a trade for a wing, but we’re in free agent mode here). Here are some names that intrigue me that could be in the budget:

Al-Farouq Aminu – He can’t shoot and he seems a bit of a head case, but he can be a great defender and is an elite wing rebounder. As for this makeup issues, well, he’s been coached by Vinny Del Negro and Monty Williams, so who knows how much of that is situational.
Shawn Marion – My guess is he stays in Dallas anyway, but he’d fit the defensive hole on the team perfectly.
Marvin Williams – It ain’t sexy but he can play some defense, hit the three and is still just 27.
Evan Turner – Not for basketball reasons, this would just be hilarious.
Brandon Rush, Chris Douglas-Roberts – Far less at the high end than some other names but would come cheap.
P.J. Tucker – I’m not sure the MLE would be enough that Phoenix wouldn’t match, but it’d be interesting to try as they angle to make a big splash.
Francisco Garcia – Would definitely help with spacing and he’s not a bad defender.
Mike Miller, Richard Jefferson, Rashard Lewis – Can’t see these guys signing for perceived non-contenders.
Vince Carter – Duh.

Those are just off the top of my head. Any other options you like?