Entering tonight’s game there is an important consecutive streak the Raptors will be determined to extend which began the day of the trade December 8, 2013: Toronto hasn’t lost 3-games in a row since.
If we learned anything from the Raptor loss to the West’s worst Lakers it’s that a Toronto squad sans DeMar DeRozan felt as peculiar for the players as it did to the viewers. While we’ve become accustomed to the iron man’s presence over the past 5-plus seasons imagine how odd it was on the floor for his teammates. Consider how many plays are cued for DeRozan and how many sets run through him. Then factor in his presence on the court during critical game moments and it’s easier to understand why the team appeared out of sync.
Moving forward, individuals need to adjust to the increased defensive coverage brought by DeRozan’s absence which should be absorbed by the bolstered roster depth, set repetition and better offensive distribution. Ultimately though for Toronto to control their own fate and continue to succeed they need to embrace their identity as a defensive squad.
Sacramento are a far superior team to the Lakers and one we’ve historically not played well against in Sleep Train Arena. On one hand this will be a huge test for Toronto as they acclimate to life without DeRozan especially considering DeMarcus Cousins has feasted on the Raptors and Rudy Gay will want to make a statement to the team who traded him and many blamed for their woeful start last season. On the other hand, given this is the NBA Fan Night feature it could actually benefit Toronto as it’s unlikely the zebras will replicate what occurred in their last visit when officials doled out 51 free throws for Sacramento to Toronto’s 24. And, of course there was this controversial late game call that sent Kyle Lowry to the showers just as the Raptors had all but erased the Kings 22-point lead.
Greivis Vasquez will be looking to make his own statement following poor showings in both games he faced the Kings last season. Conversely, Patrick Patterson played well in those outings and Chuck Hayes was key in the Raptor win at home when he shut Cousins down while the Raptors simultaneously built a big lead. The x-factor could be James Johnson who historically has his best games facing his previous teams and could draw the end of game defensive assignment to shut down Gay.
Free Agent/Trade Additions:
The change of addresses for LeBron James, Kevin Love and Pau Gasol captured most headlines this summer, but the less touted moves have been the ones paying initial rewards 17-games into this season.
Masai Ujiri’s trade of John Salmons for Lou Williams and Lucas Nogueira and signing of free agent James Johnson have unquestionably played an integral part in the Raptors’ quick start as Williams and Johnson specifically have meshed seamlessly into Casey’s system and their personal roles.
For Sacramento, the addition of Darren Collison made their starting unit more cohesive and was an upgrade on the defensive end. As witnessed in the Phoenix game, Isaiah Thomas is a shoot first point guard, so his presence was counter productive to Kings’ stars Cousins and Gay’s talents. Collison is more of a prototypical point guard whose presence has resulted in a better use of their starters’ assets. Further, the addition of free agents: Omri Casspi and Ramon Sessions coupled with a healthy Carl Landry who played only 18-games last season due to hip surgery have added depth to the Kings’ roster.
Comparing the Teams:
Power Ratings:
Toronto still ranks as the East’s best in all but Marc Stein’s rankings who has Chicago, Toronto, Cleveland and Washington grouped eighth through eleventh. Analysts aren’t as sure about Sacramento who rank them as high as eighth and low as sixteenth.
Team Rank: Hollinger, NBA.com/John Schuhmann and Marc Stein/ESPN
Statistics:
Turnovers: Toronto takes care of the ball boasting the second best rank with 11.4 while Sacramento ranks 26th with 16.4 turnovers. Working in concert with protecting the ball Toronto forces the fourth most opponent turnovers (16.5) while Sacramento are the second worst at forcing just 11.6 turnovers.
Point Differential: Toronto holds a huge margin in this category ranking 2nd (plus 9.6) to Sacramento’s 15th rank (plus 0.6).
Three Point Shooting: Not only does Toronto shoot a better percentage (35.9%) but they make almost twice as many three’s (8.5) per game to Sacramento (shoot: 31.8%, make 4.6)
Rebounding: The clear advantage for rebounding belongs to the Kings who rank tenth on offensive boards (11.2), fourth in defensive boards (34.5) and third overall (45.7), Couple this with the fact they rank first in keeping their opponents off the boards and it’s sure to be a key focus for Casey’s game plan tonight.
Intangibles: Toronto bests Sacramento in steals, blocks (surprisingly), points, pace and our bench is better in almost every category (as per below).
Traditional Stats, Advanced Stats, Opponent Stats all via NBA.com
Positional Breakdown:
Guards: Kyle Lowry, Greivis Vasquez – Darren Collison, Ben McLemore
As noted Collison has proven to be a great addition and stabilizing presence for the Kings. McLemore has been emerging as a quality producer potentially urged on by the presence of Canadian Rookie: Nic Stauskas. I’m expecting Casey to stay with Vasquez in the starting line-up as the duo of Lowry and Vasquez were extremely productive on court together last season with an established familiarity and it offers an additional ball handler to start the game while keeping the bench basically intact. In games where Toronto went at Cousins from the onset endeavoring to get him in early foul trouble the results prove successful, so look for them to run the pick and roll early and often with Valanciunas.
Edge: Raptors- it will be close, but I anticipate Lowry will be looking to lead the team through the DeRozan transition and will be more fluid in his approach in the second game without their All Star. Though DeRozan’s minutes and tasks are being spread amongst a number of players it’s Lowry who carries the lion’s share of the responsibility. Look for Lowry to quarterback ball movement and better shot distribution.
Front Court: Terrence Ross, Amir Johnson, Jonas Valanciunas – Rudy Gay, Jason Thompson, DeMarcus Cousins
Cousins missed the past 2-games with an illness, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on him missing this one given his penchant for big nights versus Toronto and also because it’s the featured NBA Fan Night game. No one has ever disputed Cousins’ talent but this season a new maturity has emerged making him a more complete player. Amir Johnson’s health is a question as he stated post game in L.A. he was suffering from an injured toe that was bleeding through his sock and hampered his ability to run and jump (of note: Johnson tends to run on his toes, so this has a greater impact on him than it would flat-footed runners). The obvious key match-ups fall upon our youngsters Valanciunas and Ross who’ll need to assert themselves on both ends facing the Kings stars Cousins and Gay.
Watch for any carry over from the World Championships this summer where Valanciunas and Cousins got into a bit of a scruff.
Edge: Kings- Valanciunas will be inspired to better his counterpart, but Cousins is playing at an All Star level and Ross’ will need to keep Gay invested on both ends if the Raptors are to keep the game close.
Bench: Lou Williams, Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, Tyler Hansbrough, Chuck Hayes/ Ramon Sessions, Omri Casspi, Derrick Williams, Carl Landry, Nic Stauskas, Ryan Hollins, Reggie Evans
With so much added depth on the Kings’ roster it’s a little surprising they aren’t performing better. Toronto bests Sacramento in almost every bench category
Slight Edge: Raptors – with Vasquez moving to the starting line-up Williams, Johnson and Patterson (and possibly Hayes if required to shut down Cousins) should have the upper hand. Watch for Casspi who played well against Toronto this preseason. The Raptors bench is better in all key categories especially points: 38.1 PPG (Kings 28.4 PPG) and point differential where Toronto ranks 2nd with a plus +13.8 (Kings rank 23rd with a minus -4.7).
Bench statistics via hoopsstats.com
Bits and Pieces:
- Dwane Casey is first Raptor Coach to win Coach of the Month honors twice
- Eric Koreen of the National Post made an astute observation: Raptors have lost both road games Drake attended (Miami & L.A), but won all others
- Sacramento averages 94.5 points in losses, 107.2 points in wins
- Could the increased knowledge DeRozan will gain via inclusion in coaches meetings translate immediately upon his return?
- In first outing without DeRozan Toronto were +1.5 free throws above their season average
- Will DeRozan’s absence expedite Masai Ujiri’s ability to gauge the growth/ceilings of Valanciunas and Ross as well as highlight roster holes sooner?
- Sacramento has won 6 of the last 8 games vs. Toronto
- Sunday’s loss to the Lakers marked the Raptors first loss of the season to a sub-500 team
Until a minute ago Vegas had the game as a pick-em, but now has Sacramento as a 1-point favorite with an O/U of 202.5. Historically the Raptors don’t perform well in Sacramento (2-15), but the streak of not losing three in a row looms large and I’m crossing my fingers it continues.
Catch our Quick React following the game and join the conversation.
