The Toronto Raptors have a big problem on their hands. Not a large one—let’s take a breath; they’re 24-10, first in the Atlantic, second in the conference and they’re about to get their leading scorer back in DeMar DeRozan. Things have been going fairly well, relatively speaking. But the numbers and recent results on the court seem to indicate that Coach Dwayne Casey has a problem on his hands with the team’s bigs. I’m talking about Jonas Valanciunas, Amir Johnson, Patrick Patterson, Tyler Hansbrough and, occasionally, Chuck Hayes (While I acknowledge the existence of Greg Stiemsma and Lucas “Bebe” Nogueira as big men technically on the roster, we’re going to be ignoring the 63 forgettable minutes they’ve cumulatively played so far this season). The Raptor’s defensive numbers are way down, having dropped from the 11th ranked defense a year ago to the 23rd ranked squad so far this year. Echoing those numbers fittingly is the team’s drop from 12th to 26th in defensive rebounding. The play of the team’s big men has been a big part of that. The team has struggled to rebound, struggled to find lineup balance, gotten brutalized by small ball teams and seen their efficiency dip. The question is, what’s accounting for this, and how do they fix it?
The bench bigs have been a mixed bag so far. Chuck Hayes has an elite skill that keeps his spot in the NBA: guarding bulky low post scorers. When you face on, as the Raptors did in their one game against Memphis, he can be essential. There aren’t many of those dinosaurs left though. As a traditional every day big man, it quickly becomes apparent that Hayes is the same height as Grievis Vasquez. His rebounding, help defense, rim protection and scoring are all problems, which is why he isn’t the answer to anything that isn’t a low post scoring machine.
Hansbrough is nothing close to a centre, which is a problem, because with Patrick Patterson being as effective of a weapon as he’s been offensively, the Raptors really need a backup 5 for the 2nd unit. Hansbrough is not that type of player. He’s undersized for the 5 spot and not much of a leaper, as his 51.8% opponent field goal percentage at the rim insinuates. Kyle Lowry has put up more efficient rebounding and rim protection numbers than Hansbrough has this season. This isn’t meant as a dump on Psycho-T, so much as it is a reality check. Because neither he nor Patterson can play centre, Casey has tried to stretch out either Amir or Valanciunas for the first 12-14 minutes of games, and the results in the final 2-4 minutes of first quarters has reflected their fatigue.
Patrick Patterson has been absolutely lethal offensively, ranking near the league leaders in 3pt% and offensive rating. The team’s splits have been very good when he’s played with Amir Johnson or as part of an all-bench second unit. But Patterson isn’t good enough to contain opposing bigs or rebound at anything close to what his position requires. He’s also not quick enough to guard small forwards against small ball lineups, where the Raptors have gotten killed. While coming off the bench, Patterson is averaging the same amount of minutes as Valanciunas and Amir Johnson. While his offence has been great, playing an equal share of minutes has reflected in the teams rebounding and defensive numbers, as Patterson’s real plus minus has him at -1.74 on the season.
Amir Johnson has not looked himself this season playing on hobbled ankles, but he hasn’t really been the problem either. Offensively, he’s been dynamite when used. He’s shooting 58% from the floor, 38% from 3, taking an attempt about every other game now, with the 5th best effective field percentage in the league. However, his numbers have slipped across the board defensively and on the boards. Amir’s rebounding numbers have dropped from grabbing a healthy 51.7% of available rebounds and putting himself in position for 12.6 rebounds a game in 2013-14, according to nba.com’s player tracking data, to scooping just 48% of available rebounds while being in position for 11.5 boards a game so far in 2014-15. Part of that decline can be attributed to his positioning further away from the basket. Amir is also playing about 2 full minutes less a game this year than last season. That could account for being out of place for an extra rebound this season. Amir is also grabbing 54.1% of contested rebounds, the 9th best such mark in the league. So it’s not the contested rebounds he’s missing out on, so much as the easy ones. That suggests that the answer is more likely a combination of scheme and other teammates either being in a closer position for rebounds or more enthusiastic for empty stats.
There have been two holes in Amir’s game this season though. Once a fantastic rotation help player and an underrated rim protector, Amir’s numbers guarding the basket have dipped hard this year. His rim protecting stats in opponent field goal percentage at the rim have fallen from a team best 47.9% a year ago to 51% now. There is no attributing that stat to positioning away from the rim or minutes played. Ankles perhaps, but the difference has hurt.
Ankles have been the real problem with Amir Johnson’s game though. Less because of the drop in rebounding and rim protection, and more because they’re not allowing him to play the minutes the Raptors need him to play. Amir has been nothing short of essential to the team’s performance, but he has only been able to play 26 minutes a game, down from 28.8 last season. His career minutes had previously been hamstrung by fouling rate, as Amir’s always impressive per 36 minute stats were asterisked by a rate that always had him fouling out before he could get to 36. But Amir is averaging just 4.4 fouls per 36 minutes now. The problem is his health. The Raptors need Amir Johnson on the floor. Jonas Valanciunas has been a big net positive when he’s been on the floor with Amir, and a complete disaster whenever he plays with Patterson or anyone else. Despite a down season, Amir is still the 22nd best player in ESPN’s real plus-minus stat, with a +2.15 defensive rating. The Raptors don’t need Amir to change his game to improve defensively; they just need more of it.
The real conundrum has been Jonas Valanciunas. His rebounding, rim protection, scoring, fg%, foul rate, free throw attempts, ft% and turnover percentage are all notable improvements from last season. That’s great news, and genuinely impressive. He’s better this year across the board. Except that his minutes are down and his on/off splits are now at a disastrous -12.3. That’s very bad news. But how are these two things happening?
Valanciunas is getting to the line 4.4 times a game on just 8.4 shots. That’s very good. He’s also hitting 54% of those 8.4 shots, another very good mark. He’s passing very little out of the post, but he has offset that some with both his efficiency, and a reduced turnover rate. Even the on/off numbers are deceiving, as the Raptors have scored 111.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, a better number than the 4th best offence Golden State Warriors average. It’s just that they’ve managed to score 117.5 without him, a number that would blow the league best Dallas Mavericks offence out of the water.
Valanciunas’ defensive splits are far more of a concern, with the Raptors holding teams to a respectable 104.4 points per 100 possessions without Valanciunas, a number in line with their 11th best defense a season ago. With him on the court, they’re getting dinged for 111.8, a number worse than the New York Knicks, who I’m not even sure are an actual basketball team anymore. Again, on/off splits can be deceiving. Valanciunas plays mostly against the opposing teams starters, so it makes some sense that the team’s defense is better against opposing 2nd units. For all the maligned criticism of Valanciunas new focus on verticality defense, the results suggest improvement. Jonas is holding opponents to 49% shooting at the rim on 8.2 attempts per game. That’s not a Hibbertian 38% by any means, but its not awful, and it’s well down from his 51.4% a season ago. Valanciunas is also grabbing the same percent of contested rebounds as Marc Gasol, Kenneth Faried and Dwight Howard, and among the league leaders in rebounding opportunities despite only playing 26 minutes a game.
It’s tough to make sense of the numbers for Valanciunas. He’s improved across the board, but he’s getting yanked from games earlier and more often than a season ago. Jonas has been productive playing with Amir, as the two are +5.4 points on the season in 543 minutes together. The starting and closing lineup isn’t the problem; it’s everything in between. Valanciunas and Patrick Patterson have been outscored by -4.1 points in 274 minutes together and Hansbrough and Valanciunas got marley-whopped in their 11 disastrous minutes together, dropping -27.3 points. Lineups are at the heart of Toronto’s big problem. Valanciunas and Amir can’t get enough time together, either because of injury or a quick hook against small ball teams. Dwayne Casey has opted to react to other team’s strengths in facing small ball so far this season, sitting Valanciunas altogether sometimes and struggling to find 5-man groups that can contain space and pace. It hasn’t worked. The team has gotten badly outrebounded whenever they’ve abandoned the two big frontcourt, and their 3 point defense and opponent assist rate hasn’t been any better when they’ve gone small. It seems worth trying to make teams adapt to them, and learning how to punish small ball teams with size. Valanciunas dominated Phoenix in Toronto for 27 and 11. He hardly played at all in the rematch until the game was already well out of hand, when he used the 4th quarter to get to 21 and 10. Dwayne Casey has done a fantastic job this season, but he has seemed to willing to let other teams dictate the matchups. If the Raptors are going to make a run come playoff time, it won’t be because the answer to Valanciunas’ -12.3 split is Jonas sitting on the bench. It will be because they’ve figured out how to balance their frontcourt rotations and utilize the frontcourt weapons they have. The bigs are a problem now, and if it isn’t figured out, it could turn into a very big problem down the line.
