One of the first games I ever “covered” for Raptors Republic was a Grizzles/Raptors pregame tilt during the 2012/2013 season. Quotation marks are necessary, there, because I didn’t see a second of the game. Not only was there no Canadian TV coverage, there was no US TV coverage – literally blacked out across the country – and so I ended up writing a brutal box score “reaction” for the pre-Rudy Gay era Raps that was rightly torn to pieces on here.
I tell this story not because it’s relevant to tonight’s game (it’s not), or because it was particularly memorable (it wasn’t), but because it’s a good reflection of how far we’ve come in such a short time. Covering the Raps – hell, being a fan of the Raps – was hard. The team was stuck in a year-after-year cycle of non-contender, non-tankiness, some of the games literally weren’t televised at all, and, for the ones that were, you had to watch Andrea Bargnani. Again, this was two years ago, which seems impossible when you’re looking at this year’s iteration of the team, and the expectations that have come along with it.
It’s thoughts like that that keep me sane when I watch Dwane Casey pine Jonas for no apparent reason in the fourth quarter, or Kyle Lowry hero-ball another team back into the game in the fourth quarter. Having meaningful discussions about strategy and personnel are things that real, contending basketball teams do, and this current slump the Raptors are going through illustrates that perfectly. There are expectations now – perfectly viable ones, no doubt – but it’s important to keep in mind that that’s cause for celebration, along with the disappointment and frustration that comes with not having those fulfilled. No more blacked out games and box score quick reactions for us!
Instead, we get posts about Bieber tweets. New world, baby.
Tonight, the Raptors (27-14) are in Memphis to face the Grizzlies (29-12), a Western Conference power buoyed recently by the return of Mike Conley after a two game absence. The Grizz lost to Dallas in Conley’s return game, but he still wound up with 22 and 4, so don’t expect much rust on his part when the two teams take the floor at FedEx Forum (8 EST, SN360).
That’s a problem for the Raps, who could have used the significant backcourt advantage that a Conley-less Grizzlies team would provide. The Raptors beat Memphis 96-92 at home almost two months ago to the day (AKA the Chuck Hayes game), but the Grizzlies were missing three players to the flu, including Tony Allen and Courtney Lee, and so it’s difficult to read too much into that result, other than it should provide the Raptors some much-needed confidence as they head into an unfriendly building. These guys know they can beat Memphis, which should give them a chance.
On-court, the Grizzlies are loaded with talent, boasting five average-to-plus defenders in a potential crunch-time five of Conley, Tony Allen, Jeff Green, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol, wing strength in the form of Courtney Lee and Vince Carter, and fun-but-effective-European/European Americans in Beno Udrih and Kosta Koufos. On paper, this is a loaded group, with few weaknesses to exploit.
There are a few weaknesses, though, most notably when it comes to outside shooting. The Grizzlies attempt the fourth-fewest threes in the league, and for good reason, as their team percentage hovers at 34.7%, the 18th lowest in the association. As anyone who’s watched basketball in the past few years knows, they compensate for this by feeding things through their twin towers of Randolph and Gasol, and by using their above average passing abilities to find mid-range looks and slashing wing players.
For the Raptors to win tonight’s game, they’d do well by forcing the action outside, perhaps by hedging down towards the opposing big on switches, and taking their chances with Memphis’ outside shooting. Conley, Lee, and Carter are decent shooters, yes, but they’re not Randolph and Gasol. Whether the Raps have the personality to stifle Memphis’ bigs remains to be seen, as evidenced by the much-maligned lack of size on our second unit, in particular. Expect to see a healthy dose of Chuck Hayes tonight, as he gets up for opponents like this given the challenge and is remarkably impressive in using his stumpy little body to at least make things difficult for traditional bigs like Gasol.
Memphis is known for their defence, and rightfully so, but offensively, there aren’t a lot of things that the Raptors need to do differently than any other game. Execution, as always, will be the key – if the ball keeps moving around the perimeter and Amir/Patterson can suck one Memphis big at least a little bit away from the basket, this game will come down to individual match ups, which the Raptors do have the ability to win, particularly when it comes to Lowry and DeMar.
Like any road game against a good opponent, this game is going to be a battle if the Raptors are to win, and a potential blowout if they aren’t (Memphis is favoured by 5 in Vegas). That’ll depend on whether or not the team – and the coaching staff – decides enough is enough and puts their foot down when it comes to disciplined execution, because that’s the only thing that’s going to work here. Colour me optimistic (and hopeful), but I’ll still take the Grizzlies by 8. And hey, worst case, at least there’s TV cameras (and no Bargnani) at this one.
