Believe it or not the Raptors have completed the most difficult portion of their schedule having returned from their last extended trip out West. The best news entering today is the magic number for the Raptors to clinch is 12!
They have two trips remaining to the opposite coast one a single game (Minnesota) and one a 2 game trip (Thunder/Spurs). That’s not to say their hard work is over. Rather, this timeframe becomes the tweaking period of their schedule as they prepare for what is an inevitable second consecutive post season berth and Atlantic Division Title.
With that in mind I reviewed the remaining 25 games, compare the Raptors Eastern counterparts and detail the areas the team should specifically look to improve.
In review of the above information there are some notable benefits as well as some down sides for the Raptors:
Benefits:
- Only 8 games against West
- Only 8 games against teams currently above .500
- While they’ve lost 3 games in a row they have played the hardest schedule of all the teams over the past 25 percent of games. This is significant when you consider the 2 teams with the best record over the last 10 games (Cleveland/Milwaukee) have played the easiest schedule other than Miami
- Most of our road games are focused in the East
- While the Raptors have lost games to teams they should beat (all the top teams have) they tend to take care of business versus lower seeded teams
- A 50 win season is as close to a certainty as the franchise has ever been. They need to win just slightly above 50% to do so. Given they have completed the harder portion of their schedule with a 65% winning average it looks like a done deal.
Negatives:
- Raptors finish the season on two back to back series within 6 days
- Of the 17 sub .500 teams we play, ten games are against teams still competing for the 7th and 8th playoff seeds: Boston x 2, Charlotte x 3, Indy, Miami x 2, Detroit, Indy and Nets
- A further 3 games are facing teams trying to establish themselves for next season and play spoiler: Minnesota x2, Orlando
Message Games:
Several teams they will face in the lower seeds are all competing to make the playoffs, and of these teams there are a couple games/teams Toronto should attempt to send a statement to:
- With 3 games remaining against Charlotte, now is the time to sweep those games in case they end up facing us in the playoffs. It’s an important message for the Raptors to send and for their own psyche.
- Of the 2 games versus Miami the one on April 11th should be considered a must win as the Raptors need to get over the hump of not winning in that building.
Health:
Obviously things could be worse given the status of Miami (Chris Bosh) and Chicago (Derrick Rose) though there are definitely some players who require some down time. Coach Casey needs to balance winning with getting his core group rest. Specifically, Kyle Lowry and Amir Johnson need to be well rested entering the post season. On the recent road trip Lowry began a game sporting a wrap around his hand and thumb. I think it’s safe to say he’s banged up and it’s affecting his shot. Going back to the Portland game, Lowry took a couple of very hard falls in that loss. Coincidentally we can marry his field goal percent regression almost exactly back to this game.
DeMar DeRozan is not completely back to health although there are encouraging signs from him given the couple of dunks we saw on the Western trip. It’s common for players returning from injury to be antsy about making quick cuts or moves in fear of re-injury as they gain self trust. Further, though he is healthy enough to play that doesn’t mean he has regained his strength in the injured area which effects his leaping and movement skills.
Rotation:
I wanted to point out, in addition to the Raptors having played the hardest schedule in the past 25 percent of games they also made some significant roster changes. Although this doesn’t address some poor shot selection there are some factors we need to consider in terms of the additional turnovers the team has been currently mired with. Several of the writers on the site spoke to why the Raptors were hesitant to add James Johnson to the starting line-up. It’s not because we don’t see his value, we do.
You need look no further than Toronto’s improved defense or lower opponent scoring to see the benefit he brings. However, with the defense improving there is a down shift in our offense which can be directly related to floor spacing. With only one 3-point shooter on the floor (Lowry), teams are able to shift off James Johnson and provide help coverage or double teams on DeRozan and Lowry which adds a wrinkle to being able to drive the paint or swing the ball.
Barring a sudden shift in confidence from Terrence Ross which would find him reinserted as a starter (unlikely), Casey and his staff will need to utilize practice to address this concern. Either they elect to involve Valanciunas more or they address the player and ball movement issues which the lack of floor spacing presents.
To that end, the Raptors remaining schedule affords them three windows of opportunity for practice (more than a single day off between games):
- March 11, 12
- March 28, 29
- April 5, 6, 7 (a rare 3-days off)
- April 12,13
The last date may need to be rest days given how closely that falls to the end of the season.
Trade Deadline:
Although Blake and Will covered why it was wise for the Raptors to not make any knee jerk moves at the deadline, I did want to touch on this from my perspective. All you need to do is watch a team like Washington play to see how valuable chemistry is. Last night they led Andrew Wiggins Timberwolves by 15 points and lost by 20. It was evident watching John Wall on the court that he is not amused and the player interaction is anything but chummy. I’m not sure if this is a player or coach related issue, however it does highlight how much chemistry makes a difference.
There is also an established precedent to follow in regards to building the core and knowing when your window of opportunity to make a move is.
Portland: Arguably the Trailblazers have the best starting five in the NBA, but for years their bench has been lack luster. They added Steve Blake and Chris Kaman in the off season and based on a second consecutive season in the West’s upper tier decided to give up draft picks to grab Arron Afflalo and Alonzo Gee to add the required extra roster depth. Toronto is at least a year from making a move like that.
Oklahoma City: Personally, I think the better template are the Thunder who worked with their two main stars: Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to build the team around them.
OKC added veterans to the locker room like Kendrick Perkins and Derek Fisher to help them grow and surrounded them with other youngsters to find the right talent mix.
Toronto did something similar bringing in Lou Williams and retaining Chuck Hayes who are both solid locker room guys.
In terms of the youth they added Jeff Green, Serge Ibaka, James Harden and Reggie Jackson of which only Ibaka remains. Similarly to how Toronto is trying to build around Lowry, DeRozan and Valanciunas.
The first year OKC broke through to make the playoffs they didn’t make any rash moves other than bringing in Perkins for his leadership and they dispersed of the youth as they determined they either weren’t a fit or weren’t within their budget.
This is where the comparison makes sense. Although it doesn’t seem like that long ago the first season Durant and Westbrook went to the playoffs was 2009-10. Can you believe it was 5 years ago?
The following season (2010-11) the Thunder lost to eventual champions: Dallas Mavericks and followed that up in 2011-12 with their first trip to the finals. Last year injury took it’s toll with Westbrook out for a majority of the season and Ibaka getting hurt versus the Spurs.
Now, 5 years after their inaugural trip to the post season they made their big trade deadline move, using an existing asset that didn’t fit (Jackson) with the chemistry or identity of the team to completely rebuild their bench and fill in their weaknesses.
I guess my point is, if Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook can see the wisdom to be patient, build the core through continual growth I think the Raptors current plan to do the same is wise.
Side note: in a Bill Simmons Grantland article he shares a discussion regarding Tracy McGrady’s leadership or lack there of citing Daryl Morey’s response to who the leader was (this might surprise you).
From the article:
After Morey fired Van Gundy before the 2007-08 season, new hire Rick Adelman was hoping McGrady would take on a bigger leadership role. Adelman was a more laid-back coach, Morey explains, someone who’d rather delegate to his players. So they met with McGrady to tell him that they needed his help.
What happened? McGrady politely turned them down. He just wasn’t wired that way, he told them.
“So who did everyone consider the team’s leader during your 22-game winning streak?” I asked Daryl.
“Probably Chuck Hayes,” Daryl said.
Chuck Hayes????
The Opportunity:
Now, hindsight is 20-20 because who knew Chris Bosh would be lost for the season, or that Derrick Rose (poor guy) would tear the same meniscus again. Sure it feels like we may have missed the window of opportunity, but given how low Terrence Ross’ stock is right now we wouldn’t have likely improved dramatically.
And, the opportunity still exists for the Raptors to grab the bull by the horns (no pun intended) and gain valuable post season experience. It sounds simplistic, but there is a path to growth over the final 25 games which could position them well for April:
- continue to build upon their recent defensive improvements
- get Lowry and Amir Johnson some rest
- utilize the practice sessions to work on weaknesses
- send Terrence Ross to a sports therapist IMMEDIATELY
- capitalize on the 17 lower seeded teams they’ll face to master the areas of their game they need to tweak
Everyone knows I’m the ultimate optimist, but honestly I see a clear path for Toronto to make the second round and possibly even the Eastern Conference Finals. With Rose and Bosh both out it’s a pretty strong likelihood Cleveland go to the Finals (sorry excuse me while I gag), but who will play them prior? Seeing Al Horford sporting a padded shoulder vest isn’t quite the same as Amir doing so. With his history of pectoral muscle tears and the fact Paul Millsap is also undersized their front court is vulnerable. Besides our ideal pairing is Atlanta or Washington given our record versus them.
Suffice to say, the Raptors have completed the hard stretch of their schedule and now can focus in on a slow steady build to the post season.
So let’s all sit back and enjoy the history making ride!
