The NBA trade deadline is just two days away and the Toronto Raptors don’t seem likely to make much of a splash. That can be frustrating for fans to hear because the Raptors are 36-17, sitting second in the Eastern Conference and appear, to some, to have a legitimate chance to make a rare NBA Finals run.
The reality – call it an unfortunate reality if you’re in the crowd itching for an upgrade – is that there aren’t a lot of moves out there that make sense for Toronto. The Raptors have some assets in the form of Terrence Ross, all of their own first-round picks, each of their own second-round picks from 2017 onward and, of course, the lesser of the Knicks or Nuggets first-round pick in 2016, a major asset. They also have a handful of sizable expiring contracts and, if the right deal manifested itself, I suppose, Jonas Valanciunas.
As nice as some of those assets are to have, moving them doesn’t make a great deal of sense. You’d only move Valanciunas in a package for a serious difference-maker. It’s piss-poor asset management to sell at the absolute bottom of Ross’ value, especially with one more year of evaluation time available before you need to pay him. The Knicks/Nuggets pick is a huge bullet that shouldn’t be used on a minor deal. Their own firsts are likewise strong currency, and though I’d be amenable to dealing the 2015 pick – Bruno Caboclo and Lucas Nogueira will be de facto rookies again next year – the rising cap and steady rookie scale will make rookies much more valuable, in relative terms, at least for 2016-17.
I’d also be hesitant to surrender any future assets for anything that’s not a clear and demonstrable upgrade to the eight- or nine-man rotation. Not to be overly pessimistic, but the Raptors would be paying to move from “likely to win one playoff series and then lose in round two” to “likely to win one playoff series with a little more certainty and probably still lose in round two.” If a deal manifests itself that changes the second-round outlook, sure, but the deals being floated don’t really do that.
That leaves the expiring deals – which sadly don’t hold as much value under the current collective bargaining agreement, with so few teams holding on to cumbersome long-term salary commitments – and the future second-round picks, which limit what the Raptors can do. I’m not ruling out Masai Ujiri doing something under-the-radar and making a big splash, but the tea leaves that reveal themselves to me suggest the biggest deal the Raptors will make is an Expiring + Future 2nd for Marginal Upgrade deal.
I’m on board with a move like that, but I find the names being linked to the Raptors to be a little curious. Through various outlets, we’ve heard the Raptors linked to names like Amar’e Stoudemire (consider me skeptical this report was accurate), David West, Kevin Garnett, Kenneth Faried, Taj Gibson and Brandon Bass (which was a suggested destination, not a report).
Several of those names are offense-first frontcourt players, which wrinkles my brain.
If you were to make a list of the issues plaguing the Raptors, it would take a while before you reached a single one that focused on the offensive end of the floor. The Raptors rank fourth in the league in offensive efficiency and tops in the East. I could see the argument that a little more offensive balance would be preferred, and adding an additional post-up threat who can make plays from the elbow would help diversify a fairly predictable attack, but I’d hardly call the conference’s best offense an area where improvement is needed.
The price tag on Bass would likely be small, perhaps as low as flipping Landry Fields’ slightly less expensive expiring deal for Bass’, but he’s kind of a poor man’s Patrick Patterson. He’s not big enough to play backup minutes at center, he’s hit five threes in his career, he’s not a very strong rebounder, and he struggles defensively. For a cost of nothing, an additional depth piece makes sense, but I would be surprised if he saw run over Patterson or Amir Johnson.
Stoudemire remains a strong finisher in the pick-and-roll and a competent offensive weapon, but he’s never been good defensively and has declined from that never-lofty perch. He’s at least big enough to mascaraed as a center and would come relatively cheap, but he doesn’t fill much of a need and it seems incredibly unlikely he’d choose Toronto over the other interested contenders.
The price tag for Faried, both in terms of the assets the team would have to surrender and his four-year, $50-million extension that kicks in next year, would require far more evaluation than this article will provide. On his face, he’s a curious fit with the current roster but one with some enticing upside. His development has disappointingly stalled, particularly on defense, which makes a four-plus-year commitment scary. This is one to revisit in the offseason if you’re a Faried fan, not a gamble to make in February to win a playoff series.
The name that seems to have most fans intrigued is West. Nevermind that Indiana is close enough to a playoff spot that he seems unlikely to move, but there are two major sticking points to a potential West deal: The Pacers are said to have asked for a first-round pick in the past, and the 34-year-old has a $12.6-million option for next season that would effectively kill the Raptors’ cap space. Both of those notes would be acceptable were West still at his prime, when he was a 17-foot assassin and a strong defender at the four, but he hasn’t looked like that guy this season. He can still shoot the long two well, rebound better than Patterson and create for teammates better than any of the Raptors’ bigs, but his defense has slid, and that extra offensive weapon doesn’t seem worth the price tag. I’m not sure he’s an overall upgrade on Patterson and Amir Johnson right now, though acquiring him would effectively upgrade the backup center spot by sliding Amir Johnson there.
People have clamoured on Twitter for Enes Kanter, too, which kind of blows my mind. He’s an offense-only big who is atrocious on defense, isn’t a clear upgrade to the frontcourt rotation, would cost a fair amount in trade, and will be seeking to get paid as a restricted free agent this summer. If you mention Jason Thompson and that contract to me, I’ll punch you in the face.
If the Raptors are going to add a piece at the margins, the focus should be on the defensive end of the floor. Toronto ranks 18th in team defense and have often times looked worse than that rank would indicate. The solutions on defense aren’t exactly clear, with the team struggling in most areas without an obvious hole to fix or single element to hone in on, but a defensive-minded backup to Valanciunas seems the most logical place to upgrade, assuming they won’t flip Ross for a 3-and-D wing upgrade.
Garnett could possibly be that guy, were he willing to come and play a somewhat limited role. He remains a strong two-position defender who grades out well by advanced metrics like Real Plus-Minus and Win Shares, and opponents are shooting a respectable mark at the rim when he’s defending, though he doesn’t contest enough shots there to be a net-plus in terms of rim protection. I haven’t seen a trade framework that makes a good deal of sense for both sides, but at least a move like this would focus on an area that needs improvement.
Gibson would work toward the same end and would represent an upgrade but the price is likely to be high and his name hasn’t been in the rumor mill much of late. Another unspectacular but intriguing, defensive-minded name who could be available for Hansbrough, Hayes, or Fields and a future second-round pick is Darrell Arthur, but he, too, can’t really play center. Sure can play defense.
Someone should trade for Darrell Arthur pic.twitter.com/jznUScQuMC
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) January 27, 2015
Scanning the rosters of teams who could be sellers this week, there aren’t many obvious defensive frontcourt players on the market. That’s unfortunate, and I wouldn’t fault the team for eschewing filling a hole and making an upgrade just to make one, if the cost is low. But I don’t really understand the debate, hand-wringing, and excitement over some of the names floated, especially given the potential asking prices.
The most likely case seems to be that the Raptors stand pat with a flawed and inconsistent but overall pretty good roster, or they make a move we didn’t see coming. That’s really just fine.
