It would be fair to picture the basketball gods as tormenter spirits, Hoop Screwtape and HardWoodworm, some sort of And-1 jackals messing with the NBA universe.
In one week they cause the Toronto Raptors multiple key wing injuries, conspire to see DeMar DeRozan botch a pair of key late-game possessions, cover the eyes of a referee as Carmelo Anthony crosses one realm – straight through any out-of-bounds purgatory – and into another, and generally put the fan base on their heels after a hope-inpsiring five-game winning streak to begin the year. And then, as faith wanes, the schedule turns favorable, with the spiritually terrible and mortally wounded Philadelphia 76ers on tap. Now, a three-game losing streak kicked and a solid 6-3 record restored, the tormented New Orleans Pelicans visit the Air Canada Centre, likely without one of the best players in the entire universe in Anthony Davis.
The only conclusion: The devil and god are waging war on the Toronto Raptors.
It’s incredibly difficult to analyze this game until the status of Davis is determined. The Pelicans are missing four players even if Davis plays, and their troubles are such that they were recently granted a Hardship Exception to add a 16th player to the roster (Jimmer!). Jrue Holiday will play after sitting Wednesday, but he’s on a fairly strict minutes limit in his third season of dealing with stress issues in his leg, limiting him to between 15 and 27 minutes in every appearance so far this year.
The Pelicans weren’t playing particularly well with Davis in the lineup. They started 0-6, won the game in which he left at halftime with a strained hip (after posting a plus-17 in the first half), then dropped a road decision to a very hot Atlanta Hawks team. This team isn’t nearly as bad as their 1-7 record suggests, but they’re injury plagued once again, far too thin to survive as such, and a serious opportunity for a Raptors victory if Davis can’t go.
Pelicans @ Raptors, 7:30 p.m., TSN
The Pelicans stand as a stark contrast to the Raptors in a few key areas. Where the Raptors have shot woefully and survived in large part thanks to the second-best free-throw rate in the league and the fourth-best offensive rebounding percentage, the Pelicans have gotten by thanks to a great deal of help from the long-ball. New Orleans ranks fifth in percentage of attempts that come from long-range and seventh in 3-point percentage, helping make up for one of the most foul-avoidant offenses in the league.
They also opt to hustle back in transition rather than crash the offensive glass. No team has grabbed a smaller percentage of offensive rebounding opportunities, a strategy that would be acceptable if the Pelicans were a strong defensive outfit. Instead, they rank dead last in defensive efficiency and dead last in opponent effective field goal percentage.
Davis and Omer Asik haven’t proven nearly the formidable defensive frontcourt they ought to be on paper, but that’s because they’ve barely played together this year. Normally, that’s a tough duo to crack – Davis has exceptional length, mobility, and defensive range, and Asik’s a strong post defender. Both players also hit the defensive glass well, and despite their struggles, the Pelicans rank ninth in defensive rebounding rate, at least.
What’s clear with how the Pelicans have played so far is that the Raptors should be able to score. New Orleans fouls willingly, Davis has often looked completely disengaged on the defensive end when he’s played, and the team’s only chance at strong frontcourt defense is to sacrifice a great deal of size or offense. At the other end, the Raptors saw Tuesday against the Knicks what can happen when a triple-heavy team gets hot from outside, so task number one will be chasing Pelicans off the arc. Given how poor the Pelicans are on the glass, the Raptors can get a little more aggressive in sticking to their men outside and closing out hard on shooters.
Pelicans Rundown
I’m not sure what, exactly, the Pelicans did do deserve their fate on the injury front the last few seasons, but it must have been dastardly. With four players injured, including offensively gifted drive-and-kick specialist and de facto backup point guard Tyreke Evans, the Pelicans have been rendered thin at most positions. Davis’ injury seems a cruel cherry on that shit sundae, as the Pelicans have been 7.2 points per-100 possessions better with him on the floor and were 11.3 points per-100 possessions better with him a season ago.
New head coach Alvin Gentry is trying to install a spread pick-and-roll offense around Davis, even if Davis is set to play more power forward than center, and the team has the shooters to do it when healthy. Eric Gordon is a napalm specialist leading the league in “wide open” 3-point attempts, Ryan Anderson’s stroke is back, and the team’s three point guards are all pull-up threats if the Raptors go under high screens. Luke Babbitt is struggling but has a strong track record of shooting success, the team just signed Fredette, and Alonzo Gee and Alexis Ajinca are really the only rotation players who don’t let fly from outside. Even Davis is shooting threes.
This team isn’t nearly as bad as 1-7. Injuries happen and teams are forced to deal, and the effort level hasn’t appeared to be where it needs to be so far. Still, on paper, a healthy Pelicans team is a playoff squad and Davis an MVP candidate. That’s not the team the Raptors draw Friday, though.
Injury Report
Toronto:Â DeMarre Carroll (plantar fasciitis) is a game-time decision; Terrence Ross (thumb) is out
New Orleans:Â Anthony Davis (hip) is doubtful; Jrue Holiday (leg) will play; Tyreke Evans, Norris Cole, Quincy Pondexter, Kendrick Perkins are all out
Positional Breakdown
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright vs. Holiday, Smith, Douglas
Holiday’s defensive metrics don’t quite match the eye test but he should be able to keep Lowry in front of him and make Lowry pick his spots from pick-and-roll mismatches. Douglas is a fringe NBA player but Smith is a serious bench scorer, one I still can’t really believe was available for the Pelicans to scoop up for free. All three guards shoot willingly, so Lowry and Cory Joseph will need to fight over and through screens. Expect to see plenty of two-point guard looks again from the Raptors, whether or not Carroll plays, as New Orleans will often have just one traditional big on the floor if Davis sits.
SG: DeRozan, Powell vs. Gordon, Fredette
Gordon and DeRozan are an interesting clash. DeRozan is the rare two-guard who can’t shoot but is one of the league’s elite foul-drawers. Gordon, meanwhile, used to get to the line at will but now derives most of his value via the 3-point shot. Both can fill it up in a hurry and work as secondary distributors, and both are game to try on defense but grade out as average at best. Fredette’s a shooter that warrants attention, one Powell can probably drive by whenever he feels like if they’re matched up.
SF: (Carroll), Johnson, Caboclo vs. Cunningham, Gee, Babbitt
Cunningham is more of a power forward who was originally asked to play the three because the Pelicans lacked wing depth. If Davis sits, he’ll function mostly as a smaller four, one Patrick Patterson can stay with and one who doesn’t represent a major 3-point threat. If Carroll goes, expect the Raptors to shift him onto whoever is hottest, as none of these threes represent a major shot-creation threat. Watch out for Babbitt from outside and on the glass, though. Johnson, meanwhile, could see occasional Davis duty if the big man plays, as the Raptors are thin on options to throw at him.
PF: Scola, Patterson, Bennett vs. (Davis), Anderson
There’s not a ton of reason to break this down until we know Davis’ status. If he plays, he’ll probably freelance as a help defender, cheating out of the corner off of whichever four he’s tasked with guarding. Neither Raptors four can contain him. If Davis doesn’t go, Anderson will start and really stretch the Raptors’ defense out while also hitting the glass, representing a challenge for a less-mobile Scola and a rebound-averse Patterson. Anderson’s exploitable in the pick-and-pop at the other end.
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo, Nogueira vs. Asik, Ajinca
Asik will make Valanciunas work for his points and any offensive rebounds, while Ajinca can draw him away from the rim at the other end. On the other hand, Asik isn’t much of a threat at the other end (he’s a richer man’s Biyombo), while Ajinca can block a shot with his length but can’t keep up with a Lowry-Valanciunas pick-and-roll.
The Line
As of this writing, the lRaptors are nine-point favorites. That seems to suggest Vegas believes that Davis won’t play. Check the NBA basketball betting page at William Hill for updates, particularly after official news comes down on the potentially absent. For now, I’ll hold off on making a prediction. Rest assured, if Davis can’t go, the Raptors will get a major edge. If he plays, well, we’ll see how I feel about one of the best five players in the world joining the fray when it happens.
