Coming off a devastating and deflating loss to the Kings, the Toronto Raptors get set to face The Kings on Tuesday.
Yes, it’s a much-anticipated showdown against the reigning NBA champions. The undefeated reigning, defending NBA champions. The almost entirely healthy, 11-0, outscoring opponents by 16.5 points per-100 possessions NBA champions.
The Golden State Warriors are ridiculous.
Coming off of a 67-win season that saw them go 16-5 in the playoffs, the Warriors somehow look even better this time around. With a full season in head coach Steve Kerr’s system, almost no roster turnover, another year of stability to help grow chemistry, and a constant ability to keep players rested and healthy by way of blowing everyone out, the Warriors seem untouchable. Their closest game before Saturday was a nine-point victory, their lone single-digit win to that point. Even Saturday, when the lowly Nets forced overtime, the Warriors said “enough is enough” and rolled through the extra frame with a 10-2 margin.
As Ronda Rousey showed that same night, the undefeated almost always fall. The Warriors aren’t going to go 82-0, and the Raptors were one of the few to beat the 72-10 Bulls back in the day. This franchise can play David, even if only for a moment, and even if the Warriors summarily dispatched the Raptors in both meetings a season ago (126-105 and 113-89). They play the games for a reason.
Raptors @ Warriros, 10:30 p.m., TSN
Tuesday’s not going to be that hard. Head coach Dwane Casey and staff just need to scour over the video, the stats, the trends, and find the weaknesses in this Warriors team, then find means of exploiting them. Weaknesses like…ummm…I mean, their bus could get lost? But they’re at home, so probably not. Maybe food poisoning? No, I don’t want to wish that on them. Real-life Space Jam scenario where aliens take all of their talent? Yes, that’s it. Casey and company can commission aliens to stop the Warriors.
Hey, it’s as realistic as looking at this team and coming up with any other game plan.
Hyperbole aside, there’s really nothing the Warriors don’t do well. They’re shooting 47.6 percent from the floor, 40.2 percent on threes, and 77.1 percent at the line, they employ the world’s greatest shooter and the reigning MVP, the Finals MVP who now stands as a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate, an entirely new model of power forward that was the runner-up in Most Improved Player and Defensive Player of the Year voting, a rim-protecting behemoth they don’t even need to use that often, a secondary lights-out shooter who could average a 20-piece if the team ever needed, another wing who’s probably going to get maxed out (or close to it) this summer, a matchup nightmare combo-guard off the bench, an emerging backup center and…you know what? I’m done.
Take that roster, take a very smart defense and a highly creative offense, and you have a juggernaut. They’re first in effective field-goal percentage, rarely turn the ball over, and are an above-average offensive rebounding outfit. The only thing they don’t do exceptionally on offense is get to the line, probably because they’re so damn good at creating open shots with no defenders around. They have a versatile defense capable of switching all over the floor, they’re solid at forcing turnovers and decent on their own glass, and the only real edge they offer Toronto is their slight propensity to foul, and even that’s not extreme.
That’s not to say all is lost. All is never lost. The Raptors’ are one of the league’s best teams getting to the line and creating shots close to the rim. The outside shooting has started to come around. They’ve defended well for the most part when not playing against DeMarcus Cousins. They’re also 3-1 against teams with winning records, owners of the No. 9 offense and No. 11 defense. Those aren’t exceptional marks like Golden State’s respective No. 1 and No. 3 ranks, but the Raptors aren’t pushovers.
They can also comfortably match smaller Warriors looks, pushing DeMarre Carroll to the four. That’s still not perfect, as few teams can match up with the Warriors’ size and length in those iterations. Jonas Valanciunas will have to stay with Draymond Green in those cases (if Green plays), and Cory Joseph will have to avoid post-ups from Klay Thompson while Kyle Lowry chases Steph Curry, or vice versa. Even DeMar DeRozan, who conceivably has the easiest assignment of the group on defense, would then be tasked with scoring against Andre Iguodala. Which, yeah, best of luck.
Still, there are tiny margins to be gained here. The Warriors don’t play their guys a ton of minutes if they don’t have to, so even on the first night of a back-to-back, Casey can go starter-heavy. The Raptors can rebound aggressively, taking advantage of an area where Golden State is merely average. The free-throw line, as always for Toronto, will be huge. And Green, perhaps the team’s second-best all-around player at this point, may not be able to suit up due to the flu.
Warriors Rundown
Most things Warriors were covered above, but damn is this team fun. It’s almost unfair how little turnover they’ve had in recent years, and the upgrade from Mark Jackson to Kerr (and by extension, player-turned-actor-turned-coach Luke Walton) was substantial and well-timed. All of the core pieces returned this year, and their five best players (the starters, less Harrison Barnes, plus Iguodala) are all around for at least one more season. Things get a bit cloudy with Barnes’ potential departure and 2017 free agency for Curry, but the two-year window following their title is remarkable.
The Warriors are basketball pornography. Even if the Raptors don’t end up pulling off an upset, there’s literally never a bad game to tune in for Golden State basketball. Curry is singularly talented and a complete original. Green, if he plays, is an entirely new wave of player. The offense is a thing of beauty.
But hey, they lost 15 games last year and figure to lose at least one or two this season.
Injury Report
Toronto: Terrence Ross (thumb) out
Golden State: Draymond Green (flu) questionable, Klay Thompson (back) probable, Leandro Barbosa (personal) probable, Kevon Looney (hip) out
Positional Breakdown
PG: Lowry, Joseph, Wright vs. Curry, Livingston, Clark
The rare night when the Raptors don’t have the point guard edge, as they’re up against the greatest shooter of all time, the reigning MVP, and the league’s leading scorer. Curry has also improved as a defender, and while he’s hardly Gary Payton, it’s not as if Lowry can be expected to go basket for basket here. Livingston off the bench makes the offense slightly less fluid, but he usually plays with at least one other capable ball-handler to shoulder the load, and he’s a serious post-up threat. He’s also a quality defender thanks to his obscene length for the position. Lowry and Joseph are a formidable tandem, and the Raptors will need them to stay as hot as they’ve been shooting the ball to have a real chance Tuesday.
SG: DeRozan, Powell vs. Thompson, Barbosa, Rush
The absence of Ross looms in this one, not because he could be trusted to stay engaged chasing Thompson around off the ball, but because high-variance 3-point shots are a reasonable David strategy up against the Warriors. Instead, DeRozan will be tasked with leading another David strategy – slowing the game down and grinding out possessions. DeRozan played maybe his best three quarters ever on Sunday before falling into bad habits in the fourth, taking contested early-clock jumpers and ignoring his teammates. Hopefully the Warriors’ ball movement is infectious and DeRozan returns to his more complete ways of late, attacking the rim and distributing off the bounce rather than shooting over all of the length and athleticism he’ll face.
SF: Carroll, Johnson, Caboclo vs. Barnes, Iguodala
How the Raptors opt to deploy Carroll is going to be very interesting. There’s no safe spot to hide someone against this team and the Raptors will be on the smaller side when they play two point guards, so asking Carroll to deal with Curry is probably out of the question. Thompson makes the most sense as a check to start, letting DeRozan take the effective but less dangerous Barnes. Carroll could also see time on Green so that the Raptors avoid Scola being switched on to Curry out of those pet Curry-Green high pick-and-rolls. It’s on the Raptors guards to fight over screens on those sets but I trust Carroll to prevent the potential four-on-three off of a hard hedge more than any of the team’s power forwards. Barnes does good work on the block but is generally the team’s fourth option, making him a reasonable check for Scola if there’s help behind him. This all changes if both sides go small, as the Raptors don’t have the option of Carroll on Green unless they want to roll the dice with Valanciunas on Iguodala elsewhere, though the Warriors obviously won’t have that option themselves if Green can’t go.
PF: Scola, Patterson, Bennett vs. Green, McAdoo, (Jason) Thompson
Patterson needs to knock down his threes. Scola’s probably not going to be able to work his old-man post-game much against savvy defenders like Green and Bogut and it’s tough to find somewhere to put him on defense against this team, so I’d guess Patterson sees appreciable run. If green can’t play, it’s unclear who will start at the four, but Scola should have a size edge against whoever it is (Speights seems a likely candidate, but the Warriors could opt to go small from the jump). Patterson’s appeared to gain confidence in his outside shot the last few games, so here’s hoping he lets them fly instead of going back to his failed attempts at being a destitute man’s Green by putting the ball on the floor against closeouts.
C: Valanciunas, Biyombo, Nogueira vs. Bogut, Ezeli, Speights
When Bogut’s on the floor, Valanciunas actually stands to have a more certain role, strange as that may sound. Bogut’s a terrific defensive presence but Valanciunas is a capable scorer against just about anyone. The question for Casey will become how best to keep Valanciunas on the floor if Green moves to center, as the team’s more conservative pick-and-roll approach probably needs tweaking against Curry-Green sets. Ezeli, by the way, has been great this year, more or less relegating Raptor-killer Mo Speights to deep reserve duty.
The Line
I’m writing this Monday afternoon, so there’s no line available yet. I’d bet the Warriors come out as heavy favorites even with Green’s status up in the air, maybe in the eight-point range. Barbosa isn’t a line-mover if in or out, beat reporters seemed very confident about Thompson’s status, and neither team is in action Monday, so it’s really just Green’s status that could push points. Expect a high over-under, too, as the Warriors play a top-five pace and spit napalm on offense.
Sorry guys, I can’t be an optimist for this one. Warriors 110, Raptors 99.
