The last time these two teams met it was the opening game of the season for both. By night’s end the result of the game would spearhead each teams’ start to the season with the Toronto Raptors going on a 5-0 start while the Pacers lost 3 in a row.
Since then Toronto has survived a hellish road heavy schedule and just completed their first run of consecutive home games. Conversely the Pacers and Paul George who earned early praise for their balance of offense and defense have suddenly shown they are more vulnerable now that they’ve begun playing Western teams, hit the road and are facing teams prepared for George and C.J. Miles perimeter attack.
The old adage of appearances can be deceiving is applicable as first glance of the Pacers is deceiving. To wit, Indiana continue to rank among the top ten leaders in offense, defense and net rating but are precariously close to falling out of this upper sanctum. An easy assumption was Frank Vogel still had his team functioning at a high end defensively, however the Pacers have ranked 28th defensively in December allowing 110.1 points per 100 possessions.This dip in the Pacers defensive performance coincided with the team hitting the West coast. The Pacers lucked out facing the Clippers without Chris Paul and J.J. Redick to register a win, but since then have lost 4 of their next 5 games.
In their past 5 games the Pacers have allowed 114.1 points while scoring 104.9 whereas the Raptors have limited teams to 98.2 points per 100 possessions while scoring 106.9. Heading into this evening the Pacers have been off since Saturday, so are on rested legs and are looking to get back on track. Conversely the Raptors arrive on a 4-game win streak tired from playing last night and having to over utilize the starters due to the bench not producing versus Philly.
Game Day Details:
Time: 7:00 P.M. EST
Venue: Bankers Life Fieldhouse
TV: Sportsnet One – Toronto, FSI – Indiana, League Pass – National
Radio: TSN Radio, 1050 – Toronto, 1070 The Fan – Indiana
Walking Wounded:
Indy:
- Myles Turner remains out with an injured thumb, targeting January return
Toronto:
- DeMarre Carroll – knee, day to day
- Jonas Valanciunas – hand, targeting late December, early January
- CBS Sports lists Lucas Nogueira as being questionable despite the fact he played versus Philly (so I’m guessing they are late on the update).
Key Stats:
A quick look at the above chart shows the Raptors have the edge in both offensive and defensive categories. As I highlighted above the Pacers have slipped defensively in December while the Raptors have improved, so this match literally comes down to the Raptors being able to maintain a defensive edge despite being tired.
Three Count:
The other key category for the Raptors to focus on will be perimeter defense given the Pacers second ranked efficiency (38.6%) from behind the arc. And while the Raptors have work to do to improve in this area the Pacers again have dipped facing stronger competition allowing teams to shoot 42% from the perimeter in December.
Breaking down the three point focus of the Pacers, Paul George attempts 7.4 threes a game connecting on 3.2 while C.J. Miles accounts for another 7.3 attempts and connects on 3 per game. So these 2 players take 14.7 of the teams 24.1 attempts or 60% of the Pacers attempts and connect on 6.2 or 66% of their successful three point makes. Obviously it doesn’t take a brain surgeon to figure out if you control those 2 players from behind the arc your shot at winning the game increases exponentially.
Key Match-ups:
Guards: George Hill, Monta Ellis vs Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan
Last time out Lowry and DeRozan made Hill and especially Ellis’ evening hell. Lowry simply has too much speed for Ellis to guard and the Pacers need Hill to guard DeRozan. Watching George Hill it’s easy to understand why he was a Popovich favorite: he is steady, reliable and intelligent, in essence he’s the perfect Spurs back up point guard, but he’s the Pacers starter so barring an unusual break out performance the Raptor guards should easily hold the advantage here.
Forwards: Paul George, C.J. Miles vs. Terrence Ross, Luis Scola
Frightening to think the game may come down to whether Terrence Ross can keep George from exploding and also contribute offensively, but in essence that may well be the deciding factor. Look for Scola to have a better outing than his opening night contribution, but the Raptors bench ability to defend Miles (and Ellis) will also play a factor. Edge: Pacers
Center: Ian Mahinmi vs Bismack Biyombo
I’d call this one a wash given neither will be an offensive juggernaut and Biyombo will hold the defensive edge.
Reserves: Jordan Hill, Rodney Stuckey, Solomon Hill, Lavoy Allen vs. Cory Joseph, Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, Lucas Nogueira, Norman Powell
If the Raptors keep it close the bench will play a factor with Joseph being an obvious contributor. The question is can someone else help offensively? Though Patterson had an off night vs. Philly he’s mounted some strong efforts specifically vs. the Spurs and Bucks (and historically he plays well against Indy). With 4 games on tap this week it sure would be nice if Patterson could produce a consistent 8 – 10 points and 5-10 rebounds per game average.
Casey has continually referenced utilizing Powell yet we haven’t seen much from him so far. Will he release the reigns tonight? More likely will be additional minutes for James Johnson who could be the x factor especially versus the undersized Pacer front court.
Rodney Stuckey is the x-factor for the Pacers and always plays the Raptors well (notably scoring 16 points vs. Toronto in the home opener).
Edge: Raptors
Raptors have wins over the Spurs, Cavs, Thunder, Pacers, Mavs, Hawks and Clippers. They're 7-3 vs the NBA's top-12 teams
— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) December 10, 2015
Prediction:
The odds makers post Indiana as the 5 point favorites with a projected over/under of 202 points. Early action is falling on Toronto.
If this weren’t a second night of a back to back with two starters out for the Raptors I’d be inclined to lean heavily toward the Raptors, but their 3 losses to Utah, Phoenix and Denver remind me the Raptors will be in tough tonight. Still, I can’t ignore how poorly the Pacers have been playing defensively in December and specifically the past 5 games. While the Raptors are tired and short handed if they maintain their defensive identity they’ll give themselves a shot at the upset.
In the first game between the clubs DeMarre Carroll provided solid defensive effort keeping Paul George in check (for the most part), so the main issue will be addressing how to manage George’s production while not letting Miles or Ellis go on a scoring terror in place of him
Since I don’t like ever betting against a streak I’ll take the Raptors by a point.
