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Raptors Mailbag: Lineups, the offense, and Ryan Anderson

Answering reader questions on a second consecutive off-day.

Heyo! It’s a second consecutive day off for the Toronto Raptors. While that thankfully means a bit of rest for Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, plus some additional healing time for DeMarre Carroll, it also (along with some minor computer issues preventing video work) leaves me without as many big picture topics to cover in depth.

In times like these, I find it better to hit a lot of smaller topics more succinctly. And so we opened up the Twitter feed to questions for a mailbag. I think this is going to be something I’ll regularly do on the second day of back-to-back off-days, so keep a heads up for that next time around if you have questions.

Let us.

There’s no chance this happens, and it shouldn’t. Jonas Valanciunas is the team’s best center, and you (usually) start your best players. There’d be an argument if the current starting unit was thriving, but it’s decidedly not – while the starting group with Carroll and Valanciunas was being outscored on a per-possession basis, that same group with Biyombo has been even worse. The current starters have been decent, but Carroll is definitely returning to the starting lineup, and so Valanciunas is the best option as the anchor.

People forget some because of the injury, but Valanciunas was playing really well before going down/. He was still a black hole on the block, but his post offense was solid, he’s the team’s best dive man, and he was much improved at disguising (or at least not telegraphing) screens. He was also playing much better defensively, with the new scheme better suiting his strengths and weaknesses.

Look, I get the whole “Valanciunas can pick up the second-unit offense” thing, and I know he has his detractors. But the bench production is on the bench to figure out; you don’t ask your third-best player to make a fundamental change to try to get other guys going, and the starters need him, especially in the first quarter. This feels a bit like cutting off the nose to spite the face.

Want a solution that would help the starters and the bench unit? Start Patrick Patterson over Luis Scola, helping the floor balance to start and letting Scola create for himself and others off the bench.

Potential Starting UnitsMinutesO-RtgD-RtgNet
KL-DD-DC-LS-JV173100.9105.2-4.3
KL-DD-DC-LS-BB116101.4111.7-7.6
KL-TR-DD-LS-JV4107.551.556.0
KL-TR-DD-LS-BB66100.499.70.7
KL-DD-DC-PP-JV1315.10105.845.2
KL-DD-DC-PP-BB35108.395.812.4

Dan is a nice a guy and probably a decent baller. I’m less of a nice guy and probably a much worse baller. But my hustle is unrelenting, my energy unending, my mercy nonexistent, my spirit unbreakable. I will crush him.

Enough so that if they had dealt Lowry to the Knicks in 2012-13, they were going into a full-blown tank for Andrew Wiggins. Lowry has only gotten better since then and is a bonafide MVP candidate so far, non-Steph Curry category. This team without Lowry, even with Cory Joseph and even in the Eastern Conference, isn’t a playoff team. I know that sounds a bit odd since they’ll probably make the playoffs with an 8-10 game cushion, but Lowry’s that important. (ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus already has him at worth near seven wins, for example.)

The Raptors don’t have much in the way of trade assets, something that’s exacerbated by the Knicks getting out to a good start to the season. They appear to be at least a fringe contender for a playoff spot, which would serve to decrease the value of the pick the Raptors are owed (which, as a reminder, could also be the Nuggets’ pick, as Denver has first dibs after the draft lottery).

Part of the issue with including so many prospects on the 15-man roster is that those players don’t have a great deal of value. Most teams tend to value their own assets more than other teams would, a bias known as the endowment effect. The Raptors have more information about their prospects, a better idea of where they are on the development curve, and perhaps a subconscious pull to see them through, lest they trade away an asset that ends up flourishing elsewhere. Young players also have small salaries, making it hard to work out deals for key contributors involving only a prospect and a pick.

So making a deal will be tough, especially if you’re averse to surrendering draft picks, the likely cost of involving a third team to help with salary matching. But there are moves to be made, even marginal ones, and I’m sure Masai Ujiri is looking. A power forward upgrade is the most obvious, but getting anyone that Casey would trust in his 10-man rotation would be a plus.

There are 28 other options! If I had to put money on an outcome, I’d say he remains a Raptor. I don’t think he’s blowing smoke when he talks about being a Raptors lifer, and I believe the organization thinks the world of him (and trusts that they can continue to build around a player with a somewhat archaic, if effective, offensive skill set). But suitors loom, perhaps his hometown Lakers among them, and a maximum contract starting around $25 million annually may cause the Raptors to balk.

Unfortunately, I have no inside information on the intentions of the Raptors, Lakers, or DeRozan. Gun to my head, I say there’s a 25-percent chance he signs at slightly less than the max with the Raptors, a 25-percent chance he signs for the max with the Raptors, a 15-percent chance he signs for the max with the Lakers, a 30-percent chance he signs for the max with another team, and a five-percent chance he signs for less than the max with another team.

I didn’t listen (I’m bad for that. Bad managing editor. Bad.), but I’d assume whoever it was just quickly looked at the “3FG%” column. Scola is technically hitting the highest percentage of his threes so far at 42.1 percent, but that comes on 38 attempts. That’s not enough to qualify for the 3-point shooting leaderboard and, more importantly, not enough to force teams to adjust their gameplans yet. I’ve written a lot about how shooting isn’t important just for knocking down shots, but for the impact the threat of shooting has on a defense and, as a result, driving lanes. It’s awesome that Scola’s knocking down open looks, but it’s hard to call him a 3-point threat at least until teams stop helping off the strong-side corner against him.

As it stands, Lowry is the team’s best long-range shooter, a bit of a problem since he handles the ball so much. T.J. Ross will shoot his way out of his slump and Patterson is rounding out of his, plus the return of Carroll will help in that regard. “We’re not a catch-and-shoot team,” head coach Dwane Casey said recently. He’s right, but having shooters around helps the drive-heavy offense.

I’m torn on this one. I think the offense is better balanced than we’ve seen so far since some of the “shooters” have had sustained slumps. The idea of free throws drying up in the playoffs is mostly a myth, too, even if teams may be better game-planned for Lowry and DeRozan. This team has hardly played it’s best ball yet, and when healthy they have a nice mix of attacking, ball-control, and offensive rebounding. They’re also surprisingly one of the league’s best transition offenses, easy points that flow from a much-improved defense.

My biggest concern about the offense is actually Lowry holding up. I know he’s in better shape, but better shape doesn’t preclude a player from injury or fatigue. I want to have faith, but every 38-minute night terrifies me after what we saw late last season. As Lowry goes, so go the Raptors, and he’ll need to be in peak form for the offense to continue flowing at a high level.

Related to the above question, I’d like to see a few games with a healthy Carroll and Valanciunas before diagnosing this one. The hope was that Carroll’s presence and Valanciunas’ improvement would help, but we didn’t get to see that quite yet. Zarar has a piece coming tomorrow on the play type distribution of the offense, so let’s maybe build off of that post for a more robust discussion on this one.

I’ve written a ton about why James Johnson doesn’t play more. I believe he should, but there are fair reasons why he doesn’t. You can read more here. Lucas Nogueira was beginning to earn more minutes before getting hurt and then turning in his worst performance of the season. It’s on him to show consistency with Valanciunas out lest he be back in the D-League in a few weeks.

But the real answer to your question of why not bench Ross and Patterson is “spacing.” The Raptors drive more than almost anyone, and driving lanes become cramped if there aren’t shooting threats on the floor. People don’t like to hear it, but you can’t play without shooters, unless you want DeRozan and Lowry to take a heavier percentage of their shots from the mid-range. Ross’ defense has picked up some of late and Patterson’s has been the best we’ve seen from him over the last few weeks, so at least they’re trying to contribute while their shots have been cold.

I’m a big Anderson fan. He’s an elite shooter for a big and a quality (though declining) rebounder despite spending time away from the rim. He’d be a great fit with the current starters at the four on offense, and he could probably even man the pivot with smaller bench units (a Joseph-Anderson pick-and-roll would be great off the bench).

The issue is that Anderson is a pretty terrible defender. He doesn’t have the lateral quickness for great pick-and-roll defense and he’s not strong enough to guard bigger players on the block. The Pelicans actually messed around with him at three positions last year to try to work around his deficiencies, but the Raptors wouldn’t be so lucky (you can hide him on whoever Scola hides on now, but there aren’t always great options).

Overall, he’d be a worthwhile upgrade. He’d be the Raptors’ best power forward and as an impending free agent, he wouldn’t hamper any offseason plans. He would almost certainly cost a first-round pick, though, so you’re interest in him will be inversely proportional to your willingness to surrender one of the team’s firsts in the 2016 draft.

See the last two questions, I guess. I’m open to making a deal but I’d sure like another month’s worth of information before diagnosing exactly what would help this team, how high it could lift them, and how much they should be willing to pay.

I know the question is mostly a joke, but trading Ross is a bit complicated before the offseason. Read more here.

“A wise man once said, ‘we all dead, f— it.'” – Killer Mike

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