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Raptors trade talk, or ‘Blake shoots down all your ideas’

Raptors trade talk is heating up two months away from the NBA trade deadline. Here are some things to know.

With the Eastern Conference pecking order seemingly wide open after the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Toronto Raptors hanging in well despite injuries, and the performance of the second unit standing out as the team’s primary weakness, I’ve received a lot of questions lately about potential trades. I made the mistake of asking for specific targets to address on Twitter and was inundated with questions about all 430 players in the NBA not currently on the Raptors (I exaggerate, but not by much).

I’m going to do my best to touch on all of those (read: shoot down, because I’m the worst) at the end, but I wanted to address a few important points that need to be considered. There will be a few times I may use the example someone submitted to drive home a point. Don’t take that as an insult or being put on blast, the goal here is to narrow our focus on realistic options, and that will help.

By all means, go nuts with the ESPN Trade Machine between now and the trade deadline, but if you present me with potential offers, I’ll likely refer you to one of these subheadings.

Timing
The 2016 NBA trade deadline isn’t until 3 p.m. on Feb. 18. There are still two months to make trades, and as much as people want to fix things now, there’s not a pressing need. Making a trade earlier serves some ends – it’s more time for chemistry to be built, it could lead to a better playoff seed, it can get worn-down players additional rest – but the market is tougher right now.

The East, for example, has 13 teams that could reasonably think they have a chance at the playoffs; the fewer the sellers, the more leverage they have. Sellers also have the option to wait on better offers, letting the next two months dictate team needs and, possibly, a higher asking price.
The Nuggets and Suns stand as examples of trade partners who fall under this cautionary heading – neither seems a playoff team, to me, but they’re close enough in a surprisingly open West that they may stall on trade talks (at least one’s that aren’t win-win) until they have a better idea of where they stand.
So, when we discuss these options, remember that they may not happen immediately.
Roster and Salary Structure
This is the big one. In short, the Raptors simply aren’t built to make many trades. For one, the Raptors have five players on the roster who are essentially non-contributing prospects (those have salary and endowment issues, to be discussed). They also have a lack of mid-level deals for salary matching, and they have two players that fall under the Poison Pill Provision, making trades harder.

High Salary
DeMarre Carroll – $13.6M
Kyle Lowry – $12M
DeMar DeRozan – $10.5M

The easiest way to add a major piece would be to give up one. But the Raptors aren’t surrendering Lowry, DeRozan, or Carroll unless there’s some out-of-nowhere blockbuster. You’re free to discuss those, but they seem unrealistic for this season, even with DeRozan an impending free agent (you’d have to find a trade partner wanting to win now or surrender a ton of picks to make a DeRozan-for-Star X swap make sense).

This means that the only means of adding a high-priced talent is to add salaries together and/or get a third team involved. Those things are possible, but the Poison Pill Provision looms and can make things quite difficult. Finding a workable, reasonable trade for Dwight Howard, for example, is damn near impossible without trading one of the team’s top three players in salary.

Mid-Level Salary
Cory Joseph – $7M
Patrick Patterson – $6.3M

Landing a player in the middle tier for salary would almost certainly mean sending out Patterson. Patterson’s struggling some from outside right now and is a poor rebounder, but teams respect his outside shot (for the most part) and he’s a quality defender within the confines of the team’s system.

Dealing Patterson (it’s unlikely Joseph is on the table) means one of two things: Creating an even bigger hole at power forward to find help elsewhere, or surrendering something along with Patterson to upgrade him.

Ryan Anderson, Mirza Teletovic, and Markieff Morris are names that fall into the discussion here. I’m not sure that Morris is even better than Patterson right now, and the Suns would want more back in a swap. Anderson is probably going to command at least one first-round pick, so your mileage with a Patterson-plus-for-Anderson swap may vary. And Teletovic seems the type of piece the Suns would hold on to until they figure out what, exactly, they are, holding him as either a capable player or salary-matching chip.

Will and I talked about the Patterson trade situation on today’s podcast.

Poison Pill Provision
Jonas Valanciunas – $4.7M ($13.7M)
Terrence Ross – $3.5M ($8.7M)

If a player is dealt between the date of signing an extension and the date the extension kicks in (July 1 for Valanciunas and Ross), then a sparsely used rule called the “poison pill provision” comes into play. The poison pill provision prevents teams from signing players to an extension and then using their current rookie-scale salary for the purposes of matching salaries in a trade. More on this here.

What this does for the Raptors is change the accounting math around Ross and Valanciunas in a deal. For the purposes of matching salary in a trade, the Raptors would be “sending out” their actual 2015-16 salaries while the receiving team would have incoming salary of the average of the total years the player is under contract. Put in numbers that hopefully make that more clear:
ppp
This serves to make trading Ross or Valanciunas quite difficult. The Raptors would either need to find a trading partner with ample cap space, such that salary-matching is less of a concern (Philly or Portland), or trade either player in a more complicated multi-player package (or three-team deal).

Ross and Valanciunas aren’t untradeable, but finding a deal that makes sense for both sides is tough unless Portland or Philadelphia are included, which will require them to be paid off.

Add to Match
Luis Scola – $2.9M
Bismack Biyombo – $2.8M
James Johnson – $2.5M

These three rotation pieces might be the most valuable trade chips the Raptors have in terms of making small moves. They all have reasonable salaries, and with Biyombo likely to opt out after this season, they’re all essentially expiring deals. Biyombo may have played up his value, too, and Scola is the type of veteran presence who could be attractive to a rebuilding team or a contending one.

The issue with dealing these players is that you’re taking away from an already thin rotation to get help. If you’re moving one of these guys with a pick for a significant upgrade, then by all means, that’s justifiable. But the return you’re going to get on a player like this – I saw a Solomon Hill-for-James Johnson swap, for example – is more of the “shuffling deck chairs” type than a clear win.

If you’re talking a bigger, multi-team framework, these three probably figure in somewhere to make the math work.

Endowment Effect
Lucas Nogueira – $1.8M
Bruno Caboclo – $1.5M
Delon Wright – $1.5M
Anthony Bennett – $0.9M
Norman Powell – $0.7M

Part of the issue with including so many prospects on the 15-man roster is that those players don’t have a great deal of value. Most teams tend to value their own assets more than other teams would, a (fairly reasonable) bias known as the endowment effect. The Raptors have more information about their prospects, a better idea of where they are on the development curve, and perhaps a subconscious pull to see them through, lest they trade away an asset that ends up flourishing elsewhere.

Nogueira, for example, is a player Masai Ujiri was after for some time and the franchise surely likes because of the connection to Caboclo. It’s unlikely another team cares about the time and investment the Raptors have put into him or the value of him as a Brazilian brother, and so the Raptors are likely to value him more than someone else, on-court evaluations being equal.

Young players also have small salaries, making it hard to work out deals for key contributors involving only a prospect and a pick. Think Wright has higher value on the market than I’m letting on? Cool, go find a worthwhile deal that only brings back $2-million in salary.

Value of Picks, Other Assets
The Raptors have a few additional assets they can throw into a deal beyond their roster players. That doesn’t help for salary matching, but it helps for making marginal upgrades where a deal is workable financially but not in terms of overall value.

The Raptors own all of their own picks moving forward, save for a 2016 second-rounder owed to Utah or Memphis, depending on where it lands (Utah gets the more favorable of Boston or Toronto’s pick, Memphis gets the other; this is from a four-team trade in 2009 that saw the Raptors land Hedo Turkoglu, Devean George, and Antoine Wright for Kris Humphries, Shawn Marion, Nathan Jawai, cash, and the pick).

So Toronto can offer a first in any season, a second in any season from 2017 onward, plus two additional firsts – a 2017 lottery-protected first from the Clippers (Greivis Vasquez!), and the less favorable of the Knicks and Nuggets 2016 first-rounders, unprotected. The latter is a major asset, even with the Knicks and Nuggets over-performing so far, as it’s likely to wind up a low lottery pick.

It’s worth remembering that for as valuable as those picks are as trade pieces, they also stand to have immense value as the cap explodes, should the Raptors hit on the picks.

cappick

The Raptors also own the draft rights to DeAndre Daniels. I’ve spotted Daniels at the ACC and Hershey Centre recently, but he’s still not playing after suffering a Jones fracture in the offseason. It’s unlikely he has any value as a prospect, but the draft rights to players are often thrown into a one-way player dump to show consideration.

Toronto can offer up to $3 million in a trade, too, though it has no impact on salary cap math.

Multi-Team Trades
As discussed, a lot of trade scenarios are going to need to involve a third team because of the complicated cap situation the Raptors have themselves in. That’s especially true if Ross and Valanciunas are to be involved.

Adding a third or even fourth team is a lot of fun in the trade machine and for hypothetical discussions, as it vastly expands the number of possibilities. It’s important to recognize, though, that all three teams have to have a reason to do the deal, and you can’t just dump a player somewhere just because. The going rate for eating a salary in such a deal is a second-round pick, and the Sixers have commanded a first in some cases.

Two-Tiered Trades
Similar to the note above, you can get more creative by proposing two trades at the same time.

You could, say, move Patterson for bench help and then make a subsequent move to upgrade at power forward, depending on who you’re after and which trades make sense. Maybe the Raptors are surprisingly willing to flip Patterson for Kevin Martin straight-up (unlikely), and you’re cool with that so long as they make a subsequent deal of a wing for a power forward.

By all means, look at these options, but for as difficult as one trade is to make, making two is even tougher. (Luckily, it’s Ujiri’s full-time job and he’s [hopefully] smarter than your boy.)

One Man’s Trash (is Probably Still Trash)
This is the big one when it comes to proposing trades. The other team has to agree to it. It’s nice to dream on flipping guys straight-up for upgrades, but it’s always important to think like this: If I’m willing to do this trade as a Raptors fan, why would Team X be willing to do it? If you have trouble justifying the deal from the opponent’s shoes, then it’s probably not a good one.

An example that was proposed: Johnson for Andrew Nicholson. The salaries match and it would add another strechy four for the Raptors, at the cost of a player on the fringes of the rotation. If you like this one for Toronto, ask yourself why the rebuilding Magic would flip a young, pending restricted free agent having a breakout year for a veteran on an expiring deal who can’t get run with another team.

This isn’t the same as the endowment effect discussed above. Other teams may value a proven player to varying degrees based on team fit. Maybe the Magic are more willing to deploy Johnson as a four than the Raptors are. Maybe another team has a roster imbalance that lines up well with Toronto’s. There are possibilities.

Just don’t think another team is going to look past the flaws of a player or not see the upside in their own guys.

Examples
Alright, let’s quickly hit on some examples. Sorry in advance.

Will’s logic here is that the Heat can trim $2.5-million off of their luxury tax bill, an important consideration as they head toward the dreaded repeater tax, while getting two useful players in return. Deng’s ironman status is in the past, and the Heat may want to play Justise Winslow alongside Dwyane Wade on the wing. The Heat can’t play Deng at the four much, but the Raptors could.

Still, I don’t think the Heat are getting enough back here. We don’t know how much they value trimming the tax bill (without a subsequent move that gets them below the tax), and this trade makes a win-now team worse. I think the Pacers would probably have to send a pick to Miami as sweetener, and maybe the Raptors would, too.

Kyle Lowry and two first-round picks for Uncle Swag.

Young would actually be a welcome addition as a scorer off the bench, but as fun as it would be, there’s no deal to be had here. The Lakers could offer Young, Tarik Black, and some sort of future restitution for Ross, but the Raptors would be downgrading defensively while the Lakers tie up salary cap space into next summer. Nothing to see here, but I’ll keep dreaming.

I don’t love the idea of Randy Foye because I’m of the mind if the Raptors add a wing, it needs to be someone who can play the two and three capably, which Foye can’t do.

I doubt Kristaps Porzingis is on the market.

The Rockets are an interesting trade partner because they’re always trying to make moves. Everything kind of hinges on if they’re actually going to move Dwight Howard, and whether the return would be a win-now one or one aimed at competing in 2016-17.

I’m a big Terrence Jones fan (I like Donatas Motiejunas, too, but less so alongside Valanciunas), and even as a pending RFA he’d be interesting to me – the Raptors having his rights would be huge, because they don’t figure to have a lot of cap space.

What the Raptors could offer, I have no clue. The Rockets want to maximize cap space all the time, so Patterson would seem to be out as a return (the Rockets would also have to add K.J. McDaniels or other pieces to make the math work). I’m not sure they’d have any interest in Johnson, since he can’t shoot, or Scola.

The only workable deal here would probably involve a third team, or the Rockets conceding the 2015-16 season and being willing to take back picks. Johnson and the Knicks/Nuggets first for Jones might get it done if the Rockets decide to go that route, but I’m skeptical they’re willing to take back picks for current contributors just yet.

This is an interesting one. Davis is a four who can’t shoot or an undersized five, but he’s a decent all-around player and one I would have thought the Raptors would be in on in the offseason (with the roster spot that ultimately went to Scola). The Raptors don’t have a need for a fifth big and I doubt they’d swap Patterson for a non-shooting four, and that’s the only realistic deal given Davis’ $7-million salary.

He’s maybe a name to keep in mind if the Raptors did a separate Patterson-for-help-elsewhere deal. But non-shooting bigs probably aren’t the biggest need on this roster.

Any deal here starts around Patterson. The Suns would want more back. I am not convinced Morris is better than Patterson, even with the extra control. Pass.

A deal here starts with Toronto agreeing to say that Drake is a Bay-Area rapper. That’s a non-starter for Ujiri.

I’m 99.99-percent certain T.J. McConnell (a guy I really like) and Isaiah Canaan (I guy I, uhh, don’t) are jokes here, but let’s talk Sixers briefly. They’ve shown a willingness to flip productive young players for assets, and maybe Robert Covington is available. The question you need to ask in any case: Is the asset the Raptors are giving up potentially more valuable than the player under his current deal? In the case of Convington, I think the Sixers ask for a first (great for them, having flipped an empty roster spot into a first-rounder), but even then they might value two more years of Convington playing for peanuts more highly.

Talked about Jones and Morris above. I’m not sure the Raptors can get in the Anderson conversation – it’s going to cost Patterson plus picks, and Anderson is an unrestricted free agent. Would you surrender a relatively cheap 2016-17 season from Patterson and a first-rounder for the upgrade to Anderson and the resultant cap space this summer? That’s a tough call, especially with the East open beyond Cleveland. The tougher call may be when the Pelicans get an equal offer and come back asking for even more.

Martin is reportedly available and would certainly bring scoring to a second unit that needs it. The issue is that he’s a poor defender, and that the only deal that makes any sort of sense for Minnesota is Patterson. The Raptors would want something to sweeten the deal – and would have to make a subsequent trade to balance the roster – and I’d bet Minnesota balks at kicking in a pick or prospect.

Some of these are covered, but on Boston: The cap math on Lee is far too complicated, Sullinger is not good, and the Celtics are competitive right now, meaning you’re not adding either of those guys without taking something away from your rotation, too.

This is really difficult given the salary stuff discussed off the top. It’s more or less impossible without a third or even fourth team, assuming you won’t trade Lowry/DeRozan/Carroll.

Howard’s difficult for cap math, though a justifiable all-in if you can make a multi-teamer work. Morris, pass, as discussed above. Caron Butler doesn’t move the needle for this team and seems headed for Milwaukee.

Can’t imagine with the roster already so thin he’d add another piece that won’t contribute anything this season. Possible in the offseason, though.

If the Kings are willing to concede that they’re not competitive this year, Johnson and a pick for Casspi works. The Kings need to recoup some draft capital, and it would be a matter of figuring out which of the four firsts (in 2016 and 2017) is fair, or if Ujiri could negotiate it down to a second (the hope in this case). Casspi would be a nice upgrade at the combo-forward spot.

Be still, my heart. This would be great, but the Nuggets got him on a terrific three-year deal. With their intention to compete over the next two seasons, you’d probably have to blow them away with an offer. The Ross math doesn’t work because of the poison pill, and you’re talking a heavy price in picks if it’s Johnson-and-flotsam.

A Hill-for-Johnson swap works, but I’m not convinced Hill is a better version of Johnson. They’re similar and while it’d be a fair enough “challenge trade,” I’m not sure it moves the needle for either side.

Henderson is a wing who can’t really shoot, a tough fit on this roster. If he could promise to play FOR the Raptors the way he plays AGAINST the Raptors, then maybe.

Bojan Bogdanovic is an interesting one. Johnson (sorry to keep using him, but he makes the most sense as a moderate-salary piece for a wing upgrade…Biyombo and Scola mostly work the same but have made less sense for roster balance) works straight-up, and the Raptors would get an extra year of Bogdanovic at $3.6 million. Are the Nets eager enough for 2016 cap space to lose a productive, 26-year-old wing player without getting any compensation back?

Right, so here’s the thing: I’ve spent 4,000 words crapping on potential trades without suggesting much myself. Over the holidays, I promise I’ll throw up something with three-to-five reasonable deals. Ran out of time (and bandwidth) today.

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