Terrence Ross is a polarizing figure among Raptors fans. Some despise him and suggest that he’s an outright bust, a player that will never find himself in Toronto, and a player with too many flaws to warrant keeping around. Don’t get those fans started on his contract. Some fans, though, are more moderate. They’ll tell you he’s simply the product of a flawed system, and that if the Raptors made meaningful changes to their offense, Ross could flourish.
On the season, Ross is averaging 7.4 points on 39.4 percent shooting, 2.2 rebounds, and just under a steal in 22 minutes per game. He struggled early in the season, though, and we’ve seen him come around a bit in December. This month, his shooting percentages jumped to 43.2 percent from the field and 41.1 percent from behind the arc. What changed, if anything?
With DeMarre Carroll out, Ross is averaging 27.8 minutes per game in December. Given more time to feel out his offense and get into a rhythm, it shouldn’t be surprising that Ross’ shooting percentages have responded positively. He’s still a streaky shooter, however, and will go 2-of-9 one night and 8-of-11 the next. That inconsistency has hurt the Raptors at times, and it’s a major reason some fans can’t wait to see him go.
Still, I wasn’t satisfied with simply labeling Ross inconsistent, so I decided to do a bit of digging through statistics and film to figure out why he’s unable to string together good games. But first, let’s take a look at a relatively common Raptors “play”.
In this play, only two players touch the ball — DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry — while the other three move around to provide the Raptors’ backcourt duo with adequate spacing to make a play. While DeRozan and Lowry are both incredible offensive players, possessions like these are extremely easy for opponents to guard. There’s no ball movement, and more often than not you know who’s going to take the shot well in advance of the shot being taken. Ross moves from the high post to the opposite wing to accommodate a Lowry drive after DeRozan was unable to get to the rim. Once he’s on the wing, though, he just stands there, waiting.
There’s not much he can do in this situation but remain ready for a pass. Even if Lowry made a pass, though, Omri Casspi would have deflected it. That’s generally what happens when your offense is predictable: Teams let your primary option do what it wants while closing off all other options. To Lowry’s credit, he’s capable of making plays in isolation. But from a team perspective, possessions like this help no one.
Here’s another play where Lowry’s ball dominance hurts the team:
This isn’t a set play with options; it’s Lowry calling for a pick from Bismack Biyombo and trying to create something from nothing. Much like in the previous video, there’s a lot of standing around from the Raptors’ other players. Ross isn’t part of the play at all, and again stands on the wing, waiting, praying. It’s no secret that the Raptors’ offense is iso-heavy, but the degree to which it hinders other players — and the team as a whole — is at times remarkable.
Let’s take a look at a possession where Ross was involved in the offense:
Here, the Raptors run a variation of a floppy set. DeRozan and Ross set screens for each other before sprinting to opposite wings off of pindown screens from the Raptors’ bigs. Ross loses Rajon Rondo and fires up a wide-open midrange jumper. While floppy sets are easy to defend if a team uses them often enough, the Raptors executed this one perfectly, albeit with some help from Rondo.
One thing I’d like to highlight in the above play is that Ross is on the move when catches the ball. He’s not standing still. He’s running to the ball, and ultimately has to drift a bit to get his shot off. While I was unable to find statistics on this, the good ol’ eye test suggests that Ross is more likely to hit shots when he catches the ball on the move. Check out the following play, for example:
The play itself isn’t pretty — it’s a Lowry iso from the corner — but Lowry’s wicked bounce pass punishes Darren Collison for rotating to help on his drive. Cory Joseph receives the pass and quickly throws it to a moving Ross, who catches the ball in rhythm and rises up for a picture-perfect 3-pointer. Keeping Ross engaged in the offense is a major key to getting him to perform well. When he’s ignored or decides to stand motionless, things like this happen:
Here, Ross sits in the corner as Lowry dribbles the ball in place on the right wing. I’m not sure why the play was broken, but Lowry reverses the ball through DeRozan, who completes the movement with a touch pass to Ross. Ross, however, already has his feet planted. They weren’t square to the basket, and as a result he has to contort his body a bit to balance himself.
This is something Ross should work on himself (jump-stopping before shooting a spot-up attempt), but in the meantime, the Raptors need to give Ross the ball in positions that exploit his strengths and hide his weaknesses. As a young player, Ross struggles to stay engaged at times. This is most telling in his field goal percentage in relation to the amount of time left on the shot clock for December.
| Time on shotclock (in seconds) | Frequency | FG% | 3P% | Total attempts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22-24 | 4.2% | 50 | – | 4 |
| 22-18 | 12.6% | 75 | 66.7 | 12 |
| 18-15 | 10.5% | 40 | 33.3 | 10 |
| 15-7 | 48.4% | 45 | 48.3 | 46 |
| 7-4 | 8.4% | 25 | 33.3 | 8 |
| 4-0 | 5.3% | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| No time | 4.3% | 33.3 | 20 | 6 |
| Uncaptured | 4.2% | 25 | 0 | 4 |
While the sample is relatively small, Ross tends to shoot better the earlier the Raptors are in the possession. This can be interpreted in a number of ways, but two stick out most. First, if Ross gets down the floor quickly enough, he’s going to be open. This can be via fast breaks or his defender not getting up the floor to contest a shot. Second, when Ross anticipates that the ball’s coming to him, he’s just going to hit the shot more often. These trends hold true for his entire season, too.
As a young player, Ross is far from the player he will inevitably become. How good he’ll be remains to be seen, but we’ve seen evidence that when he’s focused and committed to the task at hand, he can play at a very, very high level. The trick is keeping him engaged and maximizing his talent and he slowly blossoms into a veteran player. Do you remember your attitude and perseverance in your early 20s? I do, and that’s why I’m reluctant to label Ross a lost cause. He’s growing, and it will take time.
Until his motivation is intrinsic, though, Dwane Casey and the Raptors need to put greater emphasis on getting him the ball where he performs best: on the move and early in the clock. That’s not easy with the Raptors’ iso-heavy, DeRozan-and-Lowry offense, but if the goal is to maximize Ross’ ability and ultimately, win more games, then these are changes that need to be made. Don’t get me wrong, you shouldn’t have to accommodate a professional basketball player. Unfortunately, the Raptors are likely keeping Ross around at least until the end of the season, so to get the most out of the team, you need to get the most out of Ross.
