We can all agree that regular season performance comes very much second to what’s going to happen in the post-season. That if the Raptors won 42 games and won a playoff round, it would be incomparably better than notching 50 and getting knocked out in the first round. So with that in mind, a regular season win or loss shouldn’t have a big bearing on what we think of this team. That’s how logic works, right? Right, except that the human mind is not logical and I can’t help but think about last night’s loss in Chicago as a symptom of a larger problem for this team: the bench.
Granted, a “scheduled” road loss where you’re integrating a starter back into the rotation should not be a cause for alarm, and it isn’t. It’s the constant theme of the bench underperforming that’s getting to be annoying. Since there isn’t a clear and present solution to how best to fix the problem (other than to hope that players simply start playing better), it’s ought to creep into Masai Ujiri’s mind that he may try to at least see what can be done to instill some consistency in the unit.
In simple terms, for the Raptors to make an Eastern Conference finals appearance, they need Patrick Patterson, Terrence Ross, and Cory Joseph to be firing on all cylinders. If they have a hope of making it to the second round, they need two of them to be performing at consistent levels that hit peak a couple time a series. Currently, they’re lucky to get a good game out of one of them, and in Chicago, the trio were 7-25 FG, and heavily contributed to the second and fourth quarter disaster stretches that cost the Raptors the game.
If you’re a believer of averages coming through in the end, you’ll agree that Ross will finish the season shooting around 37-40% from three, frustrate you with his defensive inconsistency, and have a passable game every fourth game. That’s what we know about Ross and I’m confident he can deliver on that. Expecting him to surge higher than that is setting yourself up for disappointment, and when placing your playoff chips, that’s all one can responsibly expect from Ross, at least this season. We can analyze his game to death, re-brand the hell out of his name, and it wouldn’t change the simple fact that he’s consistently inconsistent, so let’s leave it at that. BTW, did you check out his close-out on Tony Snell?
This, kids, is how you don't close out. pic.twitter.com/Puc06pFDn8
— Raptors Republic (@raptorsrepublic) December 29, 2015
Cory Joseph, after a hot start is in a bit of a slump. His assist rate is down, his turnover rate is up, his FG% is down by more than 5%, and the amount of shots he makes that are assisted have gone down from 40% to 12%. He’s morphing from being a Spur into a Raptor (and a similar comment can be me made about DeMarre Carroll), and last night against Aaron Brooks was his worst defensive performance of the season. This is the guy that I think has the potential to be the most consistent bench player, and December has hit him like a ton of bricks: 39% FG and 26% 3FG, with only one game with 5 assists.
Joseph’s hasn’t developed a chemistry with a big that could result in a consistent 1-2 punch off the bench, much like the bond Jose Calderon and Amir Johnson forged as part of the second unit in years past. He tends to keep the ball after making use of the high screen and playing with inconsistent shooters like Patterson and Ross has meant that his kick-outs aren’t being converted. Part of the rationale of bringing Luis Scola off the bench is giving Joseph someone to play with, much like how he had Boris Diaw in San Antonio. Patterson being a poor roll-man has meant that Casey doesn’t even bother putting Joseph and Patterson in any sort of two-man set because they would be predictable and easy to defend. Joseph’s not playing with anyone on the bench who can finish in the paint, essentially forcing Casey to play him as part of a three-guard lineup with DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. This might work if your starter/bench minutes are spread out to create mix-and-match lineups, but as we saw in Chicago, when Casey goes full-bench or even 4/5 bench, things go south fast.
The biggest surprise of this season for me is Patrick Patterson because he’s playing like he doesn’t belong in his skin. The jumper hesitations are what get me the most. Even when he has space to fire, his instinct is to pass, not because another guy is open but because he doesn’t want to shoot. Seriously. He. Doesn’t. Want. To. Shoot. He doesn’t have the shooter mentality of miss-till-you-make, and you can almost see him trying to tell himself to miss-till-you-make, only that he, deep down, doesn’t really believe that he’s a shooter (I know, I’m going armchair psychologist here). His misses should make him want to get the ball back on the next possession but they’re dissuading him from shooting.
When he does attempt to put it on the floor, his drives result in runners that have the worst angles off the glass, or floaters that back-rim. I haven’t even seen a marginal improvement in that area of his game, so I’m not sure if that’s a shot he practices much. Worst of all, unlike Terrence Ross, teams are starting to play him less and less as a three-point shooter, which means we now have to look to the defensive side to find his value.
Patterson being a great team defender is the current narrative, and sure, he does expend energy and try to aggressively rotate, partially motivated by the fact that he’s doing zilch on the other end. However, that’s not good enough to warrant the minutes he’s getting.
I’m not proposing any solutions in this post, only pointing out that in order for us to reach our goal (i.e., win a playoff series), our key constraint may not necessarily be how well Lowry and DeRozan are playing, but how our bench is performing. We need consistent production from the second unit and right now the permutations that Dwane Casey is using (credit to him for trying, though), haven’t solved the puzzle which unlock our post-season hopes.
