Morning Coffee – Mon, Jan 18

DeRozan won't leave the Rapotrs (probably...) | Grades at the half | Patterson hates fan voting | Raptors vs Nets | Kyrie hates Canada

Why DeMar DeRozan isn’t leaving the Raptors | Getting Benched

Surrendering flexibility, however, still beats the alternative. If the Raptors let DeRozan walk, Ujiri would only have roughly $15 million to make an addition. That’s how much it cost for a decent starter like DeMarre Carrolllast year, and now the cap has jumped and every team has space. There’s no sense in swapping out DeRozan for a lesser player just to massage the cap. Even if they end up capped out, Ujiri will still have options. He can rely on internal development from the likes of Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross,Bruno Caboclo, Delon Wright, and Lucas Nogueira (all signed to cost-effective long-term deals), or trade those prospects, along with any or all of the four first-round picks they own in the next two drafts, to grab a star.

Toronto Raptors top trade targets, assets | ESPN [insider]

The Raptors’ shooting guard hits free agency this summer if he opts out of the $10 million final year of his deal, and it’s a virtual certainty that he will do so. DeRozan has pledged his love for Toronto, but he’s from Los Angeles and the Lakers will be able to throw max money his way. One crucial factor in Toronto’s decision: As much as DeRozan has improved, his perceived value still exceeds his value as measured by advance metrics, including real plus-minus. (Check out his current RPM.) This feels like a sell-high opportunity for Toronto general manager Masai Ujiri, especially if the Lakers are ready to make a move. It’s a difficult spot for Toronto, a contender in the East, but a team that naturally doesn’t want to lose a starter for nothing.

Toronto Raptors’ first-half report card: First 40 games have to be looked at as a success | National Post

This might be this iteration of the Raptors’ best chance to make it to the conference final. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry are playing among the best basketball of their careers, and they are both in their primes. More to the point, these Raptors have proven they can hang with any team, even giving the Warriors two of their closest calls during their 24-game winning streak to start the year. The presence of the Cleveland Cavaliers should give the Raptors some pause, but not stop them in their tracks. Given the way the first half of the season — minus a game — has gone, the Raptors could clearly use an upgrade at either of the forward spots. DeMarre Carroll’s eventual return, assuming he is healthy, will address some of that, but the Raptors’ bench gets thin awfully quickly. Regardless, the first 40 games have to be looked at as a success. If anything, the team was so good that they have made being aggressive on the trade market an even more feasible proposition.

Letter at the Half: Here is the Raptors mid-season report card | Raptors HQ

Bonus Coach Grade: Dwane Casey – A- This has been a really inexplicable Raptors season for stretches. The team couldn’t start games well, and now has problems finishing them (as always). There have been injuries and inconsistencies and irrational anger. For his part, I believe Casey has done a lot more good than harm and maintained solid relationships with all of his players (well, ahem, except maybe with James Johnson). So, what do you guys think: Fair or unfair? How do you grade the Toronto Raptors so far

Toronto the good might only get better | Toronto Star

They are about to begin a schedule-friendly stretch of seven games at home; they are ensconced in second place in the conference and there is no reason to think they won’t maintain that unprecedented level over the final 42 games. If the Toronto Raptors were another local sports franchise — perhaps one that plays a game on ice — there would be flags adorning almost every car on the road as they hit the midway point of the regular season, and if Tim Leweike was still around he’d be polishing the championship parade route application for City Hall and figuring out how often the celebration would snake its way past Drake’s house and/or restaurant. But despite all that — and it is impressive where the Raptors are today — the playoff failings of the past two springs are foremost in their minds. The Raptors’ satisfaction level is not high. “We’re doing some good things but there’s always areas as a team — defence and offence — that you can get better at,” coach Dwane Casey said. “You play well and then all at once you play like you’ve never seen each other the next four or five possessions, so that goes to the word consistency. Always work to be consistent in all the things you do.”

Kyle Lowry Could Make Toronto An NBA Finals Dark Horse | FiveThirtyEight

So this season should be encouraging for Raptors fans, at least by this metric. But after years of watching Chris Paul-led teams underachieve in the playoffs, it’s fair to ask whether this algorithm oversells the title chances for a point guard-driven squad. And as it happens, controlling for the entire skill set of a team’s best player, we found a slight tendency for teams led by players with a lot of value tied up in passing to perform worse in the postseason than we’d expect from their BPM. This could be due to any number of causes — from defenses keying in on passing patterns in a long playoff series to the way a playmaker’s value is only maximized when complemented by other skills (or perhaps it’s just random noise) — but it’s one (albeit minor) reason to consider lowering expectations for Lowry. Except that this season, Lowry’s game has been extremely well-rounded — he ranks in at least the 78th percentile of all NBA players in scoring efficiency, possession usage, assist rate and defensive BPM. Historically, teams whose best players excel in the first and last of those categories tend to exceed expectations in the playoffs at a rate far greater than any penalty that’s levied against passers.

Raptors seek spark from seven-game homestand | Toronto Sun

Staring down the back half of the season with the first half behind them, the team is confident they won’t have a repeat of last year. All-star Kyle Lowry acknowledges there were a few games they lost that they should have won but, “we just have to create better habits going forward. It’s just growth. “Fourty one games is half of the marathon, so you just have to keep tinkering and getting better. Game 55, 65, once you get there you should know what kind of team you should be.” Entering the homestand, the longest the Raptors will see this season, is welcome relief to a team that has been on the road for the majority of the year. Lowry, along with Patterson and Cory Joseph are all more than happy to be able to sleep in their own beds for an extended amount of time and have some semblance of a normal routine.

Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors: Monday game preview | Toronto Star

Key matchup: Brook Lopez vs. Jonas Valanciunas. The Nets centre is about the team’s only redeeming quantity, averaging 20 points, eight rebounds and two blocked shots a night and should be a load for Valanciunas to handle; last time they met, Valanciunas had 22 points and 11 rebounds.

Brooklyn Nets at Raptors: Preview & 3 keys to win | Raptors Rapture

The Raptors should be able to punish this sad excuse of a team, and will if they…: 1) Play all four quarters. Yes, it’s a hackneyed expression, but excellence is a habit. Toronto has come out flat in so many games, and recently has been unable to maintain Q4 leads. They need to be merciless. I’m tired of seeing the Raptors allow teams to hang around. 2) Roll over their rotation. Our second unit guys are overdue to establish their own identity, and the best way to do that is to be more than a “hold the margin” group. Terrence Ross and Patrick Patterson need to establish the long ball, then dribble past their defenders when they venture out to the 3-point line. Penetrate and dish to the waiting hands of Biyombo. Good things will result. 3) Pack the paint on D. Brooklyn is next to last in 3-point shooting percentage, so they can only stay in the game when their big men score. They also grab a significant 10.9 offensive rebounds per game. If our defenders sag correctly, and minimize second chance opportunities, the Nets won’t have much of a Plan B.

Raptors’ Patterson critical of All-Star fan voting | TSN

“At the end of the day that’s one thing I feel like they should take away, is the fans voting,” Patterson said following the Raptors’ Sunday morning practice. “Fans just vote for their favourite player, regardless of how many games they’ve played or regardless of their team’s position in the conference or the division. So I just feel like the voting should be left in the hands of the players, NBA staff and coaches.” Should the NBA continue to forfeit control of its annual mid-season showcase over to the public? Patterson’s is an argument we’ve heard before, one that regularly incites debate across professional sports. Over the summer it was ballot-stuffers in Kansas City that threatened to monopolize baseball’s All-Star Game with Royals players. Most recently, fans have had some fun at the expense of the NHL, selecting John Scott – a career journeyman currently in the minors – and prompting them to consider their own format changes for next season. In comparison, the failings of basketball’s fan vote are not nearly as egregious. For starters, everybody that is slated to represent the Eastern and Western Conferences in Toronto next month are at least on an NBA roster, which is ideal. Fan voting, as Patterson alludes to, is more or less a popularity contest, one that favours notable names and guys playing in big markets or for buzzy teams. It’s not exactly designed to fairly reward the deserving. In the past, its made an All-Star out of an injured Yao Ming (2011: played just five games) and an aging Allen Iverson (2010: averaged career-low 13.8 points). Soon, you can add Kobe Bryant to that list. The 20-year vet is leading all players in votes despite putting together the worst season of his career for a truly terrible team in Los Angeles. Consider it a lifetime achievement selection or it’s tough to justify.

#NBAVOTE Kyle Lowry | YouTube

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