The Toronto Raptors are on an emotional high right now. They’ve won six straight games – three shy of tying the franchise record of nine in a row – and are now celebrating the announcement of Kyle Lowry’s second-straight all-star start. You know who’s on the opposite end of that emotional high spectrum? The Miami Heat – they’re not so cheery these days.
The Heat have somewhat exceeded expectations this season, and their emergence overall is a reason why the East has improved as a whole. Wade has been healthy and playing well, while Bosh is having another really good season and continues to be one of the most underrated players in the league. The Raptors saw first hand how good the Heat really can be in a 20-point loss at American Airlines Arena back in November where Hassan Whiteside went off for 20 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 blocks.
The Heat have simmered since then, though. They’re riding a three-game skid and have lost six-of-seven. Also important to note: They’re plastered with injuries.
OUT: Andersen (Knee); Dragić (Calf) Whiteside (Oblique). QUESTIONABLE: Deng (Eye).Green (Knee) McRoberts (Knee) Udrih (Neck) Wade (Shoulder)
— Ira Winderman (@IraHeatBeat) January 21, 2016
There’s no question that the Raptors have plenty to take advantage of match-up wise tonight. The Heat were going to struggle in the back-court defensively even with Dragic, Udrih, and Wade healthy – let alone now with Tyler Johnson starting against one of the top-5 back-courts in the league. If Wade gets the green light to play tonight, he’s not going to have it easy against a fierce-slashing DeRozan who attacks the rim aggressively.
Missing Whiteside will hurt Miami too. Interestingly enough, there is a notion gaining momentum now that somehow the Heat actually play better without Whiteside. Yes, he’s a walking double-double and is protecting the rim at an elite level, but he struggles in defensive sets, and while he protects the rim well (really well), he doesn’t do much else defensively that’s conducive to Spoelstra’s defensive scheme. Smaller teams can easily lure Whiteside away from the basket now to make him really uncomfortable, and overall, the Heat actually concede 5+ points per 100 possessions with Whiteside on the floor as opposed to without him. The fact that Whiteside struggles defensively away from the rim is quite true, and it’s why Spoelstra doesn’t fully trust the Heat center in late-game scenarios.
Still, given the Heat’s depletion of players, missing Whiteside really stings, especially against the Raptors who ride DeRozan’s rim attacks for huge chunks of the game.
Since that 20-point shellacking in Miami in November, the Raptors have improved, and eventually had their revenge on Miami in December where they took down the Heat 108-94 and got a really solid contribution from James Johnson who made a surprise start over Terrence Ross. It was a surprise start then, but it wouldn’t be now. Sliding in JJ at the starting-three slot gives Dwane Casey the ability to bring Ross’ spacing and scoring off the bench while having a sound man-to-man defender in JJ to guard opposing swing-men. The cons to this are pretty clear – spacing gets suffocated in a DeMar-JJ pairing, and Johnson – while pretty solid in his man-to-man defense – does tend to take defensive gambles. However, he brings plenty of good to the table too. Case-in-point, in the win over Miami in December, Johnson put Luol Deng in his pocket, and was really efficient offensively carving up Miami’s defense to get inside en route to going 5-of-9 from the floor.
A hidden lining in the absence of Dragic and Udrih tonight is that it’s good for Cory Joseph who needs a bounce-back game. Dragic thoroughly got the best of CoJo in the last Raptors-Heat match-up, and if CoJo needs some extended burn against scrubs in order to regain his MoJo, then so be it. This is one of those games that the Raptors bench can really take advantage – a scenario which rarely pops its head. Miami’s bench is putrid, and I don’t mean just tonight with their injuries. On the season, the Heat rank 25th in the NBA in bench scoring, and their mark of 9.3 FGM off the bench is second-worst in the league. But it’s defensively, where the Heat bench really struggles.
Both the Raptors and Heat dedicate the same amount of time to fielding their bench players, but there is a sharp difference in defensive effciency between the two. Even if the Raptors are not hugely efficient when they drop down their depth chart (they have a deff of -.5), they do a much better job than Miami’s 2nd unit, who have a deff of -5.4.
This should be a fun one at the ACC tonight as the the game will be aired on ESPN Prime Time, and it’s a chance to beat up on the Miami Heat in front of a National audience. Tip-off is at 8 pm EST.
