Entering the season a significant portion of the Toronto Raptors fan base felt Dwane Casey should be fired and Terrence Ross relegated to the D-League or traded. Cut to present and both have delivered performances well above expectations.
What adds credence to their contributions is they’ve occurred during adversity. While the primary emphasis was to improve defensively, the Raptors are succeeding in this area despite missing the key player brought in to assist with this goal (DeMarre Carroll).
The team was also without Jonas Valanciunas for 17 games and additionally had to integrate close to half a roster with 7 new players on this years’ squad: rookies Delon Wright and Norman Powell along with new signings Carroll, Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, Luis Scola and the recently waived Anthony Bennett replaced by Jason Thompson (Blake’s article on Thompson signing).
Regarding Carroll it sure would be nice if he returned during the 7-game home stand, and based on what Patrick Patterson said following practice yesterday that might not be a stretch:
“I bug him every day asking him when he’s coming back. He’s improving; he’s getting better every single day. His body looks almost fully healed. He’s on the court doing drills –ball handling, shooting, running up and down, so his return is hopefully very soon.”
Conversely when told of Patterson’s response Casey smirked and asked
“is that coming from the University of Kentucky medical school”.
Regardless of when Carroll returns he’ll join his team in full stretch run preparation. With between 20 -24 games remaining this is the time of year teams jockey for playoff positioning and look to enhance their winning habits. For the Raptors they have 24-games left to tweak strategies and tonight they begin their last long home stand (7-games) where they currently hold a 10-game winning streak.
This time of year is also when conversations surrounding individual awards begin to heat up. Some might say 4 of the 6 awards are already locked up with C.J. McCollum and Karl-Anthony Towns virtually having sewn up Most Improved Player and Rookie of the Year. Further, it could be concluded Stephen Curry and Kawhi Leonard look likely to repeat in their categories of MVP (Most Valuable Player) and DPOY (Defensive Player of the Year) respectively. Like every year there will be arguments made these two awards shouldn’t automatically go to the best player on the team with the best record and best defensive team. In fact, there is a strong case to be made for Kyle Lowry and Chris Paul to win MVP given what they’ve accomplished with depleted teams. But that debate can be saved for another day.
This leaves two awards: Coach of the Year and Sixth Man. Again, the two teams chasing 70 or more wins will certainly offer candidates to claim this hardware but they are by no means set in stone.
To that end, let’s examine coach Casey and fourth year Raptor Terrence Ross who offer compelling arguments at the very least:
Casey Merits COY Consideration:
Historically COY tends to go to the head coach of the team with the best record. Sitting at 54-5 the Golden State Warriors are primed to surpass the Bulls 1995-96, 72-win season. Therefore it might be logical to hand Steve Kerr this award. The problem is the Warriors first 43 games were handled by Assistant Coach Luke Walton (who led them to a 39-4 record). Since Walton can’t win the award and Kerr wasn’t physically on the sidelines it presents a bit of a pickle when selecting the COY.
Certainly Gregg Popovich who also has his team on pace for 70 wins would be a deserving recipient. But, that’s like saying Steph Curry is a good jump shooter. Popovich has won COY on three previous occasions and could win every year given his prowess at the position. Pops’ team has only failed to post 50 wins once in the Tim Duncan era, and that occurred in the strike shortened season of 1998-99. Of note, over the past 23 seasons the Spurs have recorded 50+ wins in all but two with the other being the year David Robinson was injured (1996-97) which led to the Tim Duncan lottery. Apparently the Spurs even know how to tank with perfection.
Popovich has a solid argument to win given he’s had to restructure his Spurs heavy three-point offense to incorporate new additions LaMarcus Aldridge and David West. He’s also implementing an increased emphasis on Leonard’s offense while tweaking the Spurs system to focus more on defense. Should Popovich win he’ll become the first 4-time COY winner.
Outside of coach Pop there are three other viable candidates of which Dwane Casey is one. Brad Stevens merits a look given what he gets from his roster. His young team is performing well above preseason expectations. Currently the Celtics rank third defensively, just outside the top ten offenses and sixth in point differential. Boston’s performance stands out based on the personnel Steven’s is doing it with. That said, with the Brooklyn draft pick sure to bring in a top lottery pick and Danny Ainge waiting to make his big off season move it’s only a matter of time before Stevens becomes a perennial candidate for COY.
The other coach who should draw major consideration is Portland Trail Blazers Terry Stotts who has led his team to a playoff seed. Currently the Blazers rank seventh by virtue of holding an identical record with sixth seeded Dallas who won their lone meeting. The Blazers have decent positioning ranking 7th on offense, 19th on defense (though they rank 11th post All-Star break) and 12th in net differential.
While it’s true the back court of Damian Lillard and McCollum have eased the transition away from Aldridge what this team is accomplishing is no less impressive. Let’s not forget the Blazers lost four of their five starters in the off season as well as Arron Afflalo, their top bench player. In fact the entire roster almost turned over considering last season at one point Will Barton, Alonzo Gee, Chris Kaman, Joel Freeland, Thomas Robinson and Steve Blake all played significant minutes. The only players who remain from that squad are Lillard, McCollum, Allen Crabbe and Meyers Leonard. What other team in the Association could lose 6 of their top 7 players while enduring an almost complete roster turn over and recover as quickly? If Portland ends up hanging on to a playoff seed Stotts may well be the sentimental favorite to win.
https://twitter.com/TheNBAHub/status/617512493305348097
You may notice I’ve not included Tyronn Lue in the COY candidate mix and that’s because he was an Assistant Coach for the first half of the season. Furthermore, David Blatt amassed a 30-11 record prior to being fired or a 73% winning percentage whereas Lue’s record of 12-6 has a 66% win percent; with Cleveland’s defense regressing since he took over. Suffice to say he doesn’t merit consideration.
.@_sgennaro @raptorsrepublic @BlakeMurphyODC @allinsportstalk @LeighEllis @TasMelas CONFIDENCE BABY CONFIDENCE! pic.twitter.com/Sf528lw8jx
— Tamberlyn Richardson (@TTOTambz) February 27, 2016
And finally I come to the Toronto Raptors head coach Dwane Casey. Like Stotts he’s integrated a heavy roster turn over with 7 new players. Factor in he began the season knowing 5 players would see limited to no time with the 2 rookies, 2 Brazilians and Anthony Bennett. On top of this he’s had to manage the squad keeping them focused on a renewed commitment to defense without their top defender available. The Raptors are on pace to win 55 games this season, a mark that would shatter their previous best and be the first 50-win season in franchise history.
Currently the Raptors rank 5th on offense (2nd since the All-Star break), 11th on defense and 6th in net differential. Though their defense has slipped a bit since the break it’s not an identical situation to last season. Rather, it has more to do with a poor effort in the first game back from the break (something all but one of the top teams encountered) and includes the game in Detroit without Lowry.
Though the Raptors can’t afford to let their foot off the pedal they’ve demonstrated an ability to focus defensively especially at home where they’ll be for the next 13 days. Also of note will be how Casey leads the team as they progress through the season. ESPN noted the top teams from late January through to the start of this week. I looked at each of the teams schedules over this period and it offered some interesting data:
Warriors: 13-1 since Jan 25, 10R/4H:
- 117.6 ppg, opp ppg 108.9, Diff: 8.7
- In their 13 wins they held opp under 100 just 3 times
- 8 of these 13 were vs +.500
Spurs: 12-3 since Jan 25, 11R/4H:
- Only 2 wins vs teams +500
- 7 vs seeded teams and 5 vs +500
- 107.3 ppg, opp ppg 100.4 Diff: 6.9
Blazers: 13-2 since Jan 23, 11H/4R:
- Both losses were to seeded teams (Toronto was one)
- 6 of 15 were vs. +500 (3 games vs Houston)
- 110.3 ppg, 100.8 opp ppg, Diff: 9.5
Celts: 12-4 since Jan 22, 7H/9R:
- Only 4 vs teams +.500
- 112.2 ppg, 105.18 opp ppg, Diff: +7
Raptors: 12-4 since Jan 22 8H/8R:
- Of these 5 teams, played the most games vs +.500 (9)
- 105.93, opp ppg 99.62 (only team with sub 100 opp ppg during this period)
- Diff: +6.3
Notes: H = Home, R= Road, opp ppg = opponent points per game, ppg = points per game
The main thing to take from these numbers was the Raptors defense was actually better than the small sample size of the post break games as 2 games represent almost half the sample. Let’s revisit these numbers following the home stand.
The other worthy point to make is how the top 4 teams in each conference perform versus the other top teams:
It’s no surprise the Warriors rank extremely high regardless of the competition. What may be surprising is the Raptors are the second best team versus the top ten teams by more than 10% over the Spurs. They also rank third versus the top 16 teams. Further, only 4 teams have a winning record versus the top 10 and the Cavaliers just barely squeak by with 52%.
In terms of road victories it’s not surprising the only teams with winning road records are the top 4 teams in each conference. Again Toronto factors predominantly posting the best road record in the east at 18-13.
Bottom line, the stats speak for themselves and offer a valid argument for Dwane Casey as COY. What may be the determining factor could well be whether Toronto is capable of overtaking Cleveland for the top seed. And, once Carroll returns if Casey gets his squad to return to the defensive prowess they were demonstrating with him in the line-up at season start.
If the Raptors can improve and build defensively through the final games, Casey won’t care about hardware, but it would be a nice talisman for the winningest coach in Raptors history.
Mr. Consistency?
The other Raptor who has completely turned his fortune is Terrence Ross. Not since the vitriol Andrea Bargnani faced has a Raptor been more maligned than Ross. Most felt he didn’t belong on the Raptors 905 roster, let alone on the varsity club. Yet, shortly after signing his rookie extension contract the proverbial light turned on for the wing who suddenly is playing with confidence and contributing, dare I declare, consistently on both ends of the court.
Worth noting is his growth especially in the past 18 games. During this time frame he has averaged 12.5 points per game and registered double digit scoring on 13 occasions. His shooting during this stretch has been extremely hot: 85 for 169 for 50.2% from the field and 43 of 94 from behind the arc for 45.7%.
Ross isn’t just playing with confidence he’s added versatility to his offense finally mixing in drives and pull up shots in the paint. His defense has been more on than off and his 3-point shot taking has progressed to a level where he can spot up or dribble to a spot on the court he prefers and hit from there.
Another aspect of Ross’ game which has showcased growth is his defense. While many don’t hold much stead in the use of the plus – minus differential stat, the leaders on this board give reason to reconsider its validity. To wit, the top 3 plus–minus leaders are all Warriors (Curry, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson) with Kawhi Leonard right behind them. Of the top 25 plus-minus leaders 8 come from the Spurs and 5 from the Warriors. As for Toronto, the top ranked Raptor is Patterson at 17. He is joined in the top 25 by Lowry (23) and Joseph (24). Ross is then next ranked player (32).
It bears repeating when reviewing these stats to keep in mind the return of Carroll should conceivably allow everyone’s production to improve on both ends. His presence defensively will offer an easier time for the squad as a whole, both in terms of man to man and help defense. Moreover, his ability to hit the three not only spreads the floor, but offers yet another player the opposition will need to account for.
Looking back at season start the 5 man rotation which was killing clutch minutes was often comprised of Joseph, Lowry, Carroll, Patterson and one of DeRozan, Ross or Valanciunas depending on the opponent. The significance of this is the versatility of these 7 players, 8 if you add in Biyombo. With DeRozan now showing the capacity to hit the three with more consistency, it offers Casey 5 capable 3-point shooters and 3 who are capable of creating shots for themselves or the others.
Given Ross would be among the players directly benefiting from Carroll’s return he should be dialed in to improve certain aspects of his game through the final 24 games. Aside from a defensive focus he should work on ball handling, creating for himself and others and continually mixing up his offense via drives to the basket. Though I pulled numerous stats from the nba.com stat tracking page I began to feel like an analytics professor as I had 15 pages written covering the data. Suffice to say Ross is often the third option on the team for shooting plays. The other main point to derive from the stats is there is actual offensive sets in place for him given 73.1% of his points come from plays run off screens. For those interested in digging into the numbers here’s the direct link.
As far as looking at Ross as a Sixth Man candidate, he might not even be that on his own team. Certainly Cory Joseph’s performance would vault him ahead and the work of Biyombo who filled in admirably while Valanciunas was out can’t be overlooked. Odds are none of them will be true contenders, but considering players like Will Barton and Ryan Anderson are being bandied about as potential winners did give my argument more credibility given the Raptors record. Of the top teams, the player I’ve seen mentioned most as a potential winner is Andre Iguodala. His credentials are more from the perspective of a well rounded game: 7.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists while shooting 48% from the field and 35% from three, all while providing a solid defensive presence.
I guess my point was the fact I could even make an argument for Ross speaks to how much he has grown and how far he has come in terms of how the fan base views him.
In terms of Dwane Casey while his argument holds merit he’ll need to overcome the two western juggernauts and a sentimental choice in Stotts. That said, the fact he has entered top COY candidate consideration speaks to how quickly perspective can change.
At the end of the day, the only merit the Raptors themselves are truly seeking is a post season banner to drap from the ACC rafters. Here’s hoping they can claim a couple of those by season end.
