Fan Duel Toronto Raptors

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Raptors Mailbag: A lot of power forward talk, Chuck the Condor, Domonic Brown, and more

Answering your questions. A day late, but they're all in there.

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With back-to-back days off, the plan was to drop the usual #RRMailbag on Tuesday. Then stuff kind of hit the fan, what with Axel Toupane getting signed, Bruno Caboclo getting assigned to the D-League, and the Jason Thompson signing becoming official.

So here we are, running it on a game day instead. It will probably be the last one for a while, as the Raptors don’t have two days in a row off for three weeks. If you want to catch up on all the previous mailbags, you can find them here.

Before we go ahead: We’ve started a Patreon page at patreon.com/RaptorsRepublic. If you appreciate the content we produce, want to support RR, and have the means to do so, any contribution is greatly appreciated and will help us continue to do what we do (and try to do even more).

Alright, let’s make this money.

Raptors in the present day

Wrote about this plenty a week before the signing. To refresh, I think he’s an insurance policy. He’s not being brought in to take minutes from Patrick Patterson or Luis Scola, and while he’ll see time down the stretch, that will primarily be aimed to get him comfortable and get Scola some rest, which seems necessary.

Thompson’s a solid player who could produce in reserve minutes, but that’s not why he’s been brought in. The Raptors didn’t have a deep enough rotation of usable players in a playoff series, and Thompson is a huge upgrade over Anthony Bennett in the event Scola or Patterson get hurt. He could not play a minute and still have been a worthwhile addition.

The Raptors should be making Patrick Patterson the starter regardless, but again, Thompson isn’t here to usurp anyone. Scola was good for a while, may have hit a wall or a slump, and will likely come out of it at some point, perhaps after some rest. He’s also bringing a ton to the team off the court, and I doubt head coach Dwane Casey is comfortable cutting Scola from the rotation. And he shouldn’t, because again, Thompson is depth and insurance, and Scola will probably round out of his funk, especially if moved to a more suitable bench role.

I get the logic here in terms of not making too many changes and doing a wholesale change all at once, but Carroll’s return actually makes me think a power forward swap is less likely. A big part of the issue is spacing and defense, and Carroll is an upgrade over James Johnson in those regards, so I could see Casey looking at Carroll as a means of improving the starting unit. I think that would be wrong, mind you, as I’ve thought since opening night that Patterson was the more logical starter, even alongside Carroll.

Updates from practice on Tuesday suggest he’s getting closer but is still a ways away. He hasn’t gotten to the point of contact drills, and while his teammates were raving about how good he looks, he’s still a few steps – contact drills, 3-on-3 or 1-on-1, actual practice – from returning. The team’s original timeline had him back roughly some time on this home-stand, but the end of the month might be a more reasonable target at this point. That’s still enough time to let him shake the rust off, but it’s cutting it close.

The lineup with Kyle Lowry and four reserves has been one of the very best in basketball, and their playing time together has increased accordingly. Another group that’s really been thriving is a DeMar DeRozan with four reserves lineup, which hasn’t been quite as good as the Lowry-led one but is incredibly encouraging given how much non-Lowry lineups were struggling earlier in the year.

Casey’s rotations have mostly been solid, and looking at lineup data runs a lot of small-sample risk – a 2,000-minute player season sometimes isn’t even enough to accurately evaluate a player, and we’re talking about 50-minute samples of five-man groups without controlling for opponent or situation. Still, there are two lineup iterations I’d like to see a bit more of, if for no other reason than to see how they look in a larger sample.

One is Casey’s “quick hook” group, where he inserts Patterson and T.J. Ross for Johnson and Scola. That unit is a plus-30.7 points per-100 possessions in 63 minutes and has played the bulk of its time against starter-heavy opposition. If Casey’s going to stick with Scola, quicker hooks might be a means of preventing early-first and early-third stall-outs. (There’s only a 31-minute sample of Patterson alone joining the starters, and the defense has been bad, but Patterson’s shown a good chemistry with Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas before, so I’d like to see this one a bit more, too.)

The other is giving Valanciunas an earlier hook, not because he hasn’t been playing well, but because I think he and the second unit might be best-served with him helping prop up bench groups. With Lowry and DeRozan on the floor, Valanciunas doesn’t see a ton of touches, and when those two sit, Cory Joseph occasionally struggles in a Bismack Biyombo pick-and-roll. Having Valanciunas feast on second units might help keep him going (and improving) without taking shots from the stars while also easing the shot-creation load on Joseph. Valanciunas has only played without Lowry and DeRozan for 19 minutes all year – logical, given that you don’t want to sit those two together much – but the logic holds for playing Valanciunas even just when one of the stars sit.

Most definitely. Prior to that shot, here are probably the five biggest shots in Raptors’ history:

  1. Alvin Williams’ game-winner in Game 5 against the Knicks.
  2. Vince’s miss from the corner in Game 7 against Philly.
  3. Lowry’s blocked shot in Game 7.
  4. MoPete’s Michael Ruffin shot.
  5. Chris Childs’ way-too-early missed heave.

Lowry’s big shot is certainly a more positive one than most of those, but while it was huge in the moment, we probably won’t look as fondly on it in retrospect as we do today. Right now, it probably ranks second after Williams in terms of “good memory shots” and fourth in terms of meaningful or memorable moments.

Powell, for sure. He’s ready to defend two positions at the NBA level already, and he’s taken great strides as an attacker and playmaker in the D-League. If the Raptors didn’t have such tight spacing, I’d be pushing for him to see some minutes. As it stands, he’s a tough fit, but the Raptors found something in the middle of the second round, which is great.

Wright, meanwhile, is ready for backup minutes at the offensive end but has a long way to go in terms of pick-and-roll defense. Opponents would really key in on running him through a pick-and-roll ringer if he saw meaningful minutes, which is a little disappointing given how well he used his length and feet at the defensive end in college. He’s still a solid prospect, just not as advanced as initially expected.

It’s something to do with inconsistencies in how possessions are calculated. Basketball-Reference’s numbers align better, but NBA.com’s have a big discrepancy (the two sites calculate possessions differently). What’s especially weird is that free-throw rate seems like the one thing that could wreak the most havoc on possessions calculations, but the Raptors and Clippers are remarkably close on offense and close enough on defense that this isn’t enough of an explanation.

clips raps

Just to make things even more confusing, Nylon Calculus has different numbers still, which favor the Raptors slightly (5.5 to 4.9).

My answer, then, is “shrug.” Let this serve as a reminder not to take any single stat as all that reliable without the proper context.

Definitely not. Scola and Johnson aren’t going anywhere, nor should they – the former brings a ton to the locker room and is the team’s starting power forward, the latter is Carroll insurance and a potential defensive matchup piece. The team would be insane to cut a rotation player at this point in the season unless something happened behind closed doors.

And as for the names you mentioned…woof. Kevin Martin is a one-way player who offers something the Raptors don’t need at a position they’re deep at, and Thornton is the same but hasn’t been particularly good this season.

Raptors looking forward

I have no idea what “3-7” and “8-0” refer to here. Those aren’t the Raptors’ records against those teams, anyway, and I couldn’t figure out what they might be referring to.

To answer the second part of the question: The Raptors swept the season-series against Wizards in the regular season last year. Statistically, there is evidence that the regular-season series between two teams matters (it matters most in the first round and declines in importance from there). Personally, it’s not something I put a lot of stock into unless there’s good qualitative information that comes along with the head-to-head outcome.

Atlanta, and they scare me even more than Chicago. The Raptors’ biggest issue defensively is stretchy bigs, and the Hawks can go five-out at times, plus have the benefit of Mike Budenholzer. The Hawks are currently fifth in the East, only a game-and-a-half up on seventh, and while it seems unlikely they’d slide, that’s the one that would worry me most.

WORRIED: Hawks, Heat with Bosh
CAUTIOUS: Bulls, Heat without Bosh
COMFORTABLE: Hornets, Pacers, Pistons
PREFERRED: Wizards

There’s still no firm update on Daniels’ timeline. I’m hoping to needle him into giving me one on Thursday, but every time I’ve talked to him, he says he’s getting closer. Foot injuries are really tough. Hopefully he can get a few games in this month before the 905 season wraps.

Upgrade? No. The chances of finding a rookie, with any pick, who can come in and contribute meaningfully to a playoff team’s rotation are slim. People tend to overstate the impact of rookies in their first season, and your hope in Year One, in most cases where you’re not a rebuilding team, is that a lottery pick can just give you minutes.

Now, there might be power forwards available in the six-to-12 range where the Raptors will pick, with Henry Ellenson and Ivan Rabb lurking in that territory, but…

Best player available. With a few exceptions, I’m always of the mind that teams should draft the player they deem to be the best player and figure out the fit after the fact. The truth is that rosters turn over so quickly that by the time a draft pick is ready to contribute in a meaningful way, the hole they were perceived to be filling may or may not exist. Wright, for example, looked like he fit a need on draft night, then the Raptors signed Cory Joseph.

Things change too quickly and talent is too important. Unless there’s no chance of a player ever seeing minutes, or the team is supremely confident in a player contributing right away, I’m taking the better overall prospect, with perceived fit as a tie-breaker.

You’d have to think so, although getting players over the wall to come for visits could be difficult.

I wrote a little about Caboclo’s progress over the weekend, and it’s encouraging. The joke that he was two years away from being two years away wasn’t really an overstatement on draft night, and the game-plan for his development is decidedly a long-term one. But he’s improving, and he’s much better now than at Christmas, better then than in October, better then than in summer league, and so on. It’s tough to project how very raw players will come along, but the presence of the D-League is paying major dividends.

In terms of developing him in the NBA, my best guess is that that’s a 2017-18 goal. This hasn’t been confirmed to me, but I’d guess the 2016-17 plan is for him to be in a bit of a Wright/Powell role next season, seeing regular run in the D-League but also mop-up or spot duty in the NBA at times.

That’s going to disappoint some, especially since the Raptors will need to make a decision on an extension by Oct. 31, 2017, and Caboclo may be ready to contribute right as he becomes more expensive. It remains incredibly frustrating that the Raptors didn’t have a D-League squad in place for last season, when Caboclo could have been developing off of the salary cap without burning a year of his rookie deal, but better late than never, I suppose.

Miscellaneous

It’s unclear how they fare, because the Raptors would need to change their style dramatically. They’d probably play a faster tempo, require a few more corner shooters to really get the most out of Wall, and probably play a spacier game in general. Lowry’s having a better season than Wall, but Wall’s also dragging around a downtrodden, oft-injured Wizards team and keeping them on the fringes of the playoffs, so in terms of overall impact, they’re probably about even. I just think, understandably, both are better fits for their current rosters, since each roster was built with the point guard in mind.

We’ve been over this. Talent isn’t going to matter all that much. Sure, maybe you get an early basket or two, but what I lack in skill make up for in annoying defensive effort. Once I get the ball, I’ll just run until you’re out of gas, then shoot 11-of-75 on my way to an offensive rebound-heavy victory.

Worse in what sense? Aesthetically? As a corporate decision? As an abstract idea? To be honest, I love Chuck. I loved Pierre, too. I think they’re hilarious, and I think if social media were as popular when most of the other mascots around the league came out, they’d all be put through the ringer.

Chuck is awesome. He’s colorful, goofy looking, has dead, soulless eyes. Bold prediction: Chuck is actually Pierre, just dressed up in a more kid-friendly costume to help lure his prey.

We’ve had a season of Stripes, and I’ve gotten a second season of him with the 905. He’s fine, and he’s made some nice progress in the D-League this season. But I’ll take Chuck, because again, weird is good.

Sell you on a seriously flawed lefty power bat in a corner outfield spot? Surely, you have the wrong baseball analyst. Nope, no Travis Snider/Jay Bruce/Dom Brown belief here….

Seriously, Brown’s probably not going to be anything. He’s been above replacement level once in six seasons, and even his once-prodigious power dried up last season, as he hit six home runs in 452 plate appearances over three levels. Prior to that, he had a brutal 2014 where nearly every indicator in his profile went in the wrong direction. He’s basically had two good months, a 12-homer May in 2013 and a strong June to follow it.

But. BUT. There’s always a but with this player type.

He’s shown that power before. Once you display a skill, you own it, and a change of scenery and the chance to start fresh might be exactly what he needs to rediscover it. Will his OBP be .300? Maybe not. But he might ISO .150 in Toronto, and he’s not terrible as a corner outfielder (he’s not good, to be clear, but he’s not terrible). He made way less hard contact the last two seasons and pulled the ball far less, which explain his drop in batted-ball distances and home run per-fly ball rate, and maybe there are mechanical tweaks that can return him to form.

The Jays don’t have terrific outfield depth and Saunders is made of silly string, so it’s conceivable Brown sees time at some point. If he does, there’s just enough power there to sell yourself on him, and the risk here is absolutely zero.

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