I don’t know about the Toronto Raptors, but I’m sure going to be tired by the time tip-off rolls around on Friday. The Raptors went to overtime to defeat the Indiana Pacers on Thursday night, tasking three starters with 40-plus minutes in the process, and then they flew home. Your own bed is nice and all, but with a fourth game in five nights coming, not even the most baller of mattresses could get someone the requisite rest they need.
The Raptors, in other words, might be a little sluggish for the visiting Boston Celtics. Down a Jae Crowder, the Celtics don’t necessarily come in sluggish themselves, but they come in shorthanded and having lost three in a row.
There’s certainly an argument to be made that the Raptors should rest Kyle Lowry, given the recent heavy schedule, how banged up Boston is, how physical Boston’s guards are, and how the matchup doesn’t mean a ton to Toronto. At the same time, I’ve kind of given up trying to predict when guys may sit, and you could convince me that giving Lowry the day off on Sunday instead, thereby giving him four days in a row off instead of two. And it’s always possible they just keep playing him, as he’s taken one game off and only had to play 28 minutes on Tuesday (though, you know, he’s still third in the NBA in total minutes played). I’m more risk-averse than most in this regard, so I will digress and continue as if everyone is playing.
Except for Jonas Valanciunas, who remains day-to-day with a hand contusion. He was a game-time call Thursday but considered doubtful throughout the day, and it would stand to reason the Raptors wouldn’t bother risking it Friday, but I am not a doctor. I don’t even have health insurance. Or hands.
The game tips off at 7:30 p.m. on Sportsnet One.
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To help set the stage, we reached out to Michael Pina of even more sites than yours truly, and he was kind enough to help us out.
Blake Murphy: Bruh, what is going on in Boston? 130 points at home to the Thunder to extend the losing streak to three games and drop Boston from the three-seed. I know Jae Crowder is hurt – more on him in a second – but is this recent slide something to worry about for the Celtics?
Michael Pina: I don’t think so. Crowder’s absence really magnifies itself when Boston is up against guys like Kevin Durant, James Harden and Paul George. Combine that high-ankle sprain with Kelly Olynyk’s shoulder injury, and Brad Stevens has been forced to lean on seldom-used players who wouldn’t crack their playoff rotation—Terry Rozier, James Young, Coty Clarke, etc.
Blake Murphy: OK, so Crowder’s out, which is huge. He’s been terrific, playing versatile lock-down defense around the perimeter and knocking down 34.8 percent of his threes. My question is this: Which high-end 3-and-D player’s health is more important to their team, Crowder’s or DeMarre Carroll’s?
Michael Pina: Not to say Carroll isn’t critical if Toronto wants to make a meaningful playoff run, but they’ve been really good without him. On the other hand, Crowder is either Boston’s first or second best player. Since the All-Star break, Boston outscores opponents by 5.1 points per-100 possession with Crowder on the floor, and gets outscored by that very same margin when he sits. So even though his positional versatility and two-way strengths make Carroll the logical comparison, Crowder’s bottom-line value should be measured against Kyle Lowry or DeMar DeRozan instead. And, obviously, the Raptors aren’t doing anything of note if one member of their starting backcourt gets hurt at the wrong time.
Blake Murphy: Boston has struggled a bit at the offensive end, even with Crowder. They rank third in pace, which masks that some, and by offensive efficiency they’re 11th, which is hardly bad, but there seems to be a sense they’re a team that could be easy to defend – outside of Isaiah Thomas – come playoff time. They’re 26th in effective field-goal percentage and 21st in true-shooting percentage – essentially, they’re not shot-makers, but they protect the ball, hit the offensive glass well, and make opponents pay for mistakes. Is that a sustainable way to live in the postseason?
Michael Pina: Probably not, as we saw in last season’s first-round sweep against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers. This year’s group is much more cohesive; they share the rock, leverage Thomas’ big-play ability in nifty ways off the ball, and have more talent. But the Celtics still lack a secondary crunch-time ball-handler. Evan Turner is a liability whenever he isn’t dribbling, and neither Avery Bradley nor Marcus Smart has the playmaking chops to consistently make good things happen off the bounce.
Blake Murphy: It’s not going to happen in round one, but maybe it will in round two. If they met, who do you like in a playoff series between Toronto and Boston, and what’s the biggest factor in the series?
Michael Pina: Toronto would head in as the obvious favorite. Lowry and DeRozan—the two best players in a hypothetical series—spearhead a razor-sharp bench mob. But if Carroll isn’t healthy enough to slide up and play power forward in small-ball lineups, Boston would probably stay tiny the entire series and then, um, pray?
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Raptors updates
DeMarre Carroll remains out, we can probably assume Valanciunas is doubtful, and we have no intel on potential rest. Until we hear otherwise, the rotation will look something like this:
PG: Lowry, Cory Joseph, Delon Wright
SG: Norman Powell, T.J. Ross
SF: DeMar DeRozan, James Johnson, Bruno Caboclo
PF: Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson
C: Bismack Biyombo, Jason Thompson, Lucas Nogueira
Given that Powell started against Indiana, and head coach Dwane Casey opted to shift DeRozan onto the larger Paul George, I don’t see many matchups in which Johnson is going to start from here on out. Powell has been providing really solid defensive minutes, Johnson’s play has been uneven, and there’s more reason to see what they have in Powell and continue to develop him rather than have information they already have about Johnson affirmed. Boston is starting small with Crowder out, too, so Johnson would lose utility.
Thursday’s starting lineup has now played 25 minutes together over three games, outscoring opponents by 16 points in that time. That hasn’t been because of great spacing, but the defense has been really good, they’ve hit the offensive glass well, and they’ve rarely coughed the ball up. We’re talking the tiniest of lineup samples here, though, so take that success with a grain of salt.
I’m also listing Thompson ahead of Nogueira with Valanciunas out, because that seems to be the plan right now. It makes sense, though it’s disappointing not to see Bebe. Thompson needs minutes and reps in a new system, can masquerade as a center, and was going to struggle to get minutes when the entire frontcourt was healthy, save for occasional rest days for others. I know some want Nogueira to get the reps for development and to see what he has for next season – not dissimilar to Powell’s situation – but Nogueira isn’t playing in the playoffs, and getting Thompson up to speed for potential matchup-specific duty in the postseason is a more pressing matter.
Celtics updates
Jae Crowder (ankle) is out
Jonas Jerebko (ankle) is questionable
Kelly Olynyk (shoulder) is probable
Jordan Mickey, James Young, and R.J. Hunter are up from the D-League, as is Coty Clarke, on a 10-day contract
With those notes, the rotation will look something like this:
PG: Isaiah Thomas, Terry Rozier
SG: Marcus Smart, Evan Turner, Hunter
SF: Bradley, James Young, Clarke
PF: Amir Johnson, (Jerebko), Mickey
C: Jared Sullinger, Olynyk, Tyler Zeller
Those positions look a little weird, and they’re not how the Celtics’ rotation will really flow. Like always, they’re just a means of listing players. Realistically, if Jerebko can’t go, the Celtics may be pressed into playing two centers together (they did so for about 10 minutes on Wednesday). The Celtics use weird lineups all over the place, running multiple point guards, playing Bradley at forward, letting The Villain run the point. They’re malleable and fun like that.
They’re also a giant pain in the ass to score on, no matter the iteration. Their perimeter defense is strong enough to help make up for a lack of rim protection, and while the Celtics do well limiting shots at the rim, they don’t do a great job defending those attempts. Crowder’s absence looms large, as Turner and Thomas are both sub-par defenders who could be forced into time on Lowry or DeRozan, unless Brad Stevens nails Smart and Bradley to them minute for minute.
The line
The line is off the board as of 1 a.m. I’ll try to update in the morning.
Update: The Raptors opened as three-point favorites on most books, but there were two sites that saw them open at -6 and then quickly switch to -3. Maybe this is because of information coming out (the change happened around 8 a.m.) or perhaps it was just a mistake initially. Raptors -3 feels about right if Valanciunas sits, given the four-in-five scenario and travel.
