Jonas Valanciunas will miss the remainder of the Toronto Raptors’ series against the Miami Heat due to a sprained right ankle, the team announced Sunday.
This comes on the heels of the news that Heat center Hassan Whiteside has a sprained right MCL and is day-to-day, though precedent with that injury suggests he could be done for the series, too. The series, then, has just changed dramatically and fundamentally
Valanciunas suffered the ankle sprain in the third quarter of Saturday’s game, stepping on Dwyane Wade’s foot as he landed after contesting a layup. He had the ankle re-taped and tested out but was ultimately ruled out, and context clues after the game made it seem as if the injury wasn’t all that serious. That’s obviously not the case, as the Raptors are essentially committing to sitting Valanciunas for at least a week with the sprain (Game 7 would go next Sunday, if the series gets that far).
The impact of this announcement really can’t be overstated. If Whiteside is out, Valanciunas would have represented a massive advantage inside for the Raptors, as he would have been up against a rotation of flawed centers and small-ball lineups. If Whiteside is in, Valanciunas is the team’s best option to combat him on the glass and make him work at the defensive end, and Valanciunas was decidedly winning that matchup at the time both went down. Whatever the Heat chose to do, Valanciunas was going to be a major part of the counter, and he was playing perhaps the best two-way basketball of his career over the last week. In three games, he totaled 55 points on 24-of-37 shooting while adding 38 rebounds, six assists, six steals, and four blocks, all in just 101 minutes. He was awesome, and the Raptors are 41.6 points per-100 possessions better with him on the floor in this series and 7.1 PPC for the entire postseason.
We’ll have more on the fallout from this news tomorrow, but it’s going to have major trickle-down effects on the rotation.
For one, Bismack Biyombo is now the starting center. He’s been ineffective in the series but has been great in his backup role for most of the season, and he’s already shown he can step in and start in a pinch. He’s a great rim protector and allows the Raptors to be a lot more aggressive in their pick-and-roll coverage and assignment switching on defense, and he could stand to have a few massive rebounding nights if Whiteside’s on the shelf. The issue is that offensively, the Heat will load up off of him to make life difficult on the point guards, and he’s less of an over-the-top lob threat if the Heat go super-small, as they almost surely will.
The answer to that could be one of two things: Go super-small themselves, with Patrick Patterson essentially becoming the backup center in rangy, switch-everything groups opposite Miami’s Luol Deng-at-center groups, or play Lucas Nogueira. The small lineups are going to be a factor at some point, and the Raptors have shown some comfort playing that way. They may even get really aggressive and slot DeMarre Carroll in as the de facto center in an effort to get more wings on the floor when the Heat are mega-small. The Heat are still going to play Udonis Haslem, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Josh McRoberts, but Erik Spoelstra is going to try small looks, and Biyombo doesn’t have much utility there. Nogueira is more of a pick-and-roll threat on offense and nearly as rangy, if much less savvy, on the defensive end. Nogueira is an over-the-top threat, a really strong passer, and a quality finisher around the rim, and he offers some semblance of rim protection. He’s flawed, and playing an ice-cold sophomore in a major playoff role is risky as all get out, but you don’t have perfect options when you lose your starting center, who happens to be in the process of devouring opponent souls.
The Raptors could also give Jason Thompson and Luis Scola looks as small-ish centers. Thompson has some defensive agility and has looked decent in that role in spot duty, and he’ll get first crack at the backup center spot if the Heat stay big or Dwane Casey really doesn’t trust Nogueira. That might be fine, but Thompson’s a bit of a half-measure at both ends. Scola probably shouldn’t get another look, but Casey will almost surely try him at some point – that turned out horribly on Saturday and probably would again Monday, or any other day, but I’d expect to see Scola as a small center at least once more. That’s…not great, so hopefully Casey moves away from it quickly.
My personal preference would be for Biyombo to start, “small lineups” to take the backup role, and Nogueira get a try in Game 4. The Raptors have to lean more Nogueira/Thompson if Whiteside returns at any point, but for now, it’s probably easiest to assume Whiteside isn’t playing, at least for Game 4. Smaller groups are something I’ve long been in favor of the Raptors trying, and to their credit, they’ve managed to build up a bit of experience playing that way. And I’m not talking just a Carroll-Patterson frontcourt – I think you could try some Carroll at center with two guards and two wings (including Norman Powell, probably) around him, and you may even give James Johnson a shot at the pivot. Johnson is someone I’d actually give a look to pretty early in these groups, over Scola and Thompson, because he’s not going to be giving up much functional size to anyone but Stoudemire, who may not even factor in much. Those groups will sacrifice rebounding, but the Heat will be doing the same, and going five-out really opens up defensive coverage options, adds extra ball-handlers on offense, and could fuel the transition game both ways.
It’s a minor concern that the Heat are probably just as comfortable playing that way, but with both teams lacking the requisite frontcourt depth to simply soldier on, the guess here is that we’ll see a lot of small-versus-small looks in Game 4. That’s a whole new feeling out process, and each coach may decide to adjust from there, so Game 4 is probably going to have the feel of a Game 1.
In terms of the overall impact of the two injuries together, it’s tough to figure. Valanciunas was playing better, but the Raptors have superior depth, and can match the Heat small if Casey wants to. Whiteside may return at some point, sure, but the Raptors also have the 2-1 series edge right now. The Raptors will probably remain slightly favored in the series from here, having taken home court back, and Game 4 should be pretty telling.
What’s clear before anything else, though, is that this sucks. Whiteside is an exciting young player about to hit free agency, Valanciunas was playing the best ball of his career, and the series is significantly less fun without that matchup on the marquee. This is really, really unfortunate, and hopefully both players recover quickly for a potential Eastern Conference Finals appearance.
