The Miami Heat may have dodged an enormous, series-defining bullet.
An MRI on Sunday confirmed that Hassan Whiteside is dealing with a right MCL sprain, nothing more serious, and he’ll be listed as day-to-day.
While that’s a better outlook than maybe initially anticipated, it still leaves his status for the series in jeopardy – such injuries take a couple of weeks to heal from in many cases, and while “day-to-day” sounds good, there are only eight days left in the series. He can probably be considered unlikely for Game 4 on Monday, with his status worth monitoring each day at practice and shootaround. Without knowing the grade of the sprain, projecting a return is even more difficult – Steph Curry was set to be re-evaluated in two weeks after suffering a Grade 1 MCL sprain, while Marc Gasol and Rudy Gobert suffered Grade II sprains this year and missed a combined 41 games, per Tom Haberstroh. “Day-to-day with sprained MCL” is simply not enough information to accurately project a return date for him.
Still, at least there’s no structural damage in the knee. There was concern Saturday that Whiteside may have suffered a more grave injury, as he left the arena following Game 3 in a soft cast on his entire right leg, telling reporters he had never felt pain like that and that his “knee went two different ways.” Whiteside, who has been dealing with a right knee issue since Game 3 of the Heat’s opening round series against Charlotte, banged knees with Luol Deng in the second quarter on Saturday, then fell awkwardly and appeared to know immediately that something was wrong. He’s also dealing with a right thigh issue, a left elbow injury, and a cold, so it’s a tough time to be Whiteside (and that’s before considering that the injury trouble may stand to cost him some money as a free agent this summer).
The loss of Whiteside for any amount of time is huge for Miami, who lack the center depth to survive without him (unless Jonas Valanciunas, who suffered a sprained ankle on Saturday and is likewise day-to-day, sits). Udonis Haslem is a solid post defender and mid-range shooter, but it’s a win for the Raptors at the defensive end if he’s out there. Amar’e Stoudemire is the opposite, a zero defensively who can still score around the rim some. Josh McRoberts could stretch the Raptors’ defense out in a five-out attack, but he’s been up-and-down for two seasons due to injury issues of his own and is a mediocre defender despite his best efforts. The Heat would likely toy with super-small lineups if Whiteside’s out, with Luol Deng essentially playing the five and the Heat switching everything all around the floor with five like-sized players (they’d also really dig in to Valanciunas post-ups, trying to force turnovers or at least making the Raptors move away from that advantage on the block).
Through three games in this series, Whiteside has scored 28 points on 10-of-16 shooting, adding 30 rebounds, five steals, and four blocks in 87 minutes. The Heat have been outscored by eight points with him on the floor thanks in large part to the dominance of Valanciunas, but his presence has still had a profound effect – the Raptors’ ball-handlers have essentially accepted the restricted area as a no-fly zone when Whiteside’s in the game. That makes sense considering he turned away 9.7 percent of opponent 2-point attempts while on the floor this year, leading the NBA with 3.7 blocks per-game. Still, you’d like to see the Raptors get more aggressive attacking him if he returns, especially if he’s at less than 100 percent.
For the playoffs, the Heat have been essentially neutral with or without Whiteside on the floor, as they were for the bulk of the season. Those on-off numbers perhaps don’t do his play justice, and rest assured that life is more than a little easier for the Raptors with Whiteside on the shelf. You don’t want to win that way or ever wish injury on an opponent, but for the very short-term and egocentric, this is a plus for the Raptors, so long as Valanciunas is fine. If Valanciunas isn’t, things get murkier, and the Raptors will have to think long and hard about dusting off Lucas Nogueira or matching Miami’s super-small groups with ones of their own featuring Patrick Patterson (or even DeMarre Carroll) as the de facto center.
