The Toronto Raptors may be a little worse in 2016-17 than they were in 2015-16. They’re still going to be very good.
That was the general expectation at the end of a franchise-best season and heading into an offseason where they lacked the flexibility to make a big leap, and it appears to be the belief now that the larger parts of the offseason have played out. ESPN’s annual Summer Forecast for the Eastern Conference was released Monday, and the group of rankers have the Raptors pegged for a 51-31 record, tied for second in the conference with the much-improved Boston Celtics.
That shouldn’t be all that surprising. Yes, it’s a five-win drop-off, but there’s a lot at play here.
Reasons for improvement
*DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas may not miss a full season combined
*IN: Jared Sullinger, Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet/Jarrod Uthoff/15th Man TBD
*One of the youngest contending teams in the NBA
*Chemistry, consistency, culture, low turnover
*Norman Powell
Reasons for decline
*Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan were able to play top-10 minutes
*OUT: Bismack Biyombo, Luis Scola, James Johnson, Anthony Bennett, maybe Jason Thompson
*One of the youngest contending teams in the NBA
*Atlantic Division improved
*Regression to the mean (may have outperformed talent level/expectations)
Some of those points are up for debate or mean more/less to you, but it’s easy to look at where the Raptors are and conclude that they should be somewhere in the area they were last year, give or take a few games based on variance/injury/regression/whatever. And it’s not as if 51 wins is a negative prediction – the Raptors would still be favored to win at least one playoff series, and if ESPN’s predictions played out correctly, there would be an awesome (and likely heated) second-round showdown with the “prove it in the playoffs” Boston Celtics.
Here’s how ESPN’s predictions for the East stack up next to the latest odds to win the conference outright, per Bodog.
| Team | Bodog Odds to Win East | ESPN Win Prediction |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland | -250 | 57 |
| Boston | +500 | 51 |
| Toronto | +1400 | 51 |
| Atlanta | +2500 | 44 |
| Chicago | +2500 | 40 |
| Indiana | +2800 | 45 |
| Detroit | +4000 | 45 |
| Miami | +4000 | 36 |
| New York | +4000 | 40 |
| Milwaukee | +5000 | 39 |
| Washington | +5000 | 41 |
| Orlando | +6600 | 35 |
| Charlotte | +10000 | 43 |
| Philadelphia | +15000 | 20 |
| Brooklyn | +20000 | 20 |
Among the things that stand out is the Raptors having such longer odds at an East title than their win total would suggest. This could indicate a belief the Celtics are a better matchup for the Cavaliers, that they’d beat Toronto in a playoff series, that they may take a while to reach their peak, that there’s a lot more public money on a “sexy” team that made some noise this offseason, even if DeMarre Carroll would warn they’re not playoff-tested yet, or any number of other things.
What’s clear from both the bookmakers and ESPN predictors is that there is the Cavaliers, there’s the Celtics and Raptors, and then there’s a jumble of teams jockeying for standing beyond the top three. That feels right as a broad stroke to paint the East with right now.
Any early predictions on how many games the Raptors will win, or which Raptor will hit the game-winner in Game 7 of the second-round series against the Celtics?
