I would like to formally welcome Nerlens Noel to the Kenneth Faried Perpetually Almost Raptors All-Stars.
Yes, Noel and the Toronto Raptors are back in the rumor mill together, the latest in their JD-and-Elliott level will they or won’t they dance. This time, news of the Raptors kicking the tires on the high-topped center come courtesy of ESPN’s Marc Stein. Stein writes:
The Raptors are among the teams that have expressed interest in Philadelphia’s very available Nerlens Noel, but sources say Toronto’s initial preference in the wake of losing Jared Sullinger (foot) to injury is to give more minutes to various younger players (such as rookies Pascal Siakam and Jakob Poeltl) so they get first crack at filling the void.
It’s worth noting out of the gate that Stein almost shoots down his own rumor, or at least pours some cold water on it for the short-term. Team president Masai Ujiri was clear that the team will be patient in the wake of Sullinger’s injury, and general manager Jeff Weltman doesn’t seem like the type to limp into trade negotiations showing an obvious weakness, at a loss for leverage. The Raptors have instead put their trust in the rookies, and so far the returns have been varying degrees of encouraging. The better the freshmen play, the less the Raptors may perceive a need for Noel, but the better their leverage would be in a negotiation, so Siakam and Poeltl playing well is a positive no matter your feelings on Noel (shocking that players playing well is a good thing, right?).
Noel being tied to the Raptors once again is at the same time interesting and frustrating. I note it’s frustrating mostly because the chatter almost surely isn’t coming from Toronto’s camp, and Bryan Colangelo has been known to try to control his message and play the public perception game when working the market. That’s entirely fine and justifiable, but sometimes I wonder if people leak the Raptors as potential trade partners knowing the team isn’t going to say anything about it either way.
Assuming there’s at least some interest, Noel would be a decent swing for upside both in Sullinger’s stead and when he returns. He’d immediately become the team’s best rim protector, at least on potential, and while he and Jonas Valanciunas would be an awkward fit offensively, Noel is capable of guarding the perimeter, too. There’s a scenario where he fills Sullinger’s perceived role as the starting power forward and the backup center, with head coach Dwane Casey staggering rotations to leverage Noel’s versatility for the second unit. Teams would really gum up the paint with Noel and Valanciunas on the floor together, but it’s not as if Siakam is a floor-spacer right now, and the Raptors may trust their offense enough to roll the dice on those lineups to improve the defense. I’m of the mind Noel’s value would be maximized as a center, but the Raptors don’t need to worry about him reaching his overall ceiling in a vacuum if he makes their team better in whatever role he’d play.
Noel’s price tag could also be pretty reasonable for a 22-year-old who’s shown as much potential as he has. He’s clearly on the outs in Philly, unhappy with his lot and proving redundant with so many forwards and centers in the wings. That he’s also the closest of the prospects to free agency makes it likely he’d be Philadelphia’s preferred outbound big, too, and cashing out on him before he hits restricted free agency this summer would be a process-style move (if there are any leftover remnants of that philosophy). Toronto wouldn’t pay a price tag commensurate with an assumption they could re-sign him – they’d want to see how the fit plays out, anyway, and measure how Siakam and Poeltl develop to evaluate their long-term needs – but if they wound up liking the match, they’d own his Bird rights and the ability to go over the cap to re-sign him or match an offer sheet.
The question then becomes one of what the 76ers are asking for. Colangelo drafted Terrence Ross, but a swap of those two players likely leaves the Raptors too thin on shooting and DeMarre Carroll insurance. The Sixers have a need at point guard, but Delon Wright or Fred VanVleet don’t make enough money to make a straight swap work. Lucas Nogueira and the lesser of Toronto’s two 2017 first-round picks might be proper value given Noel’s depressed trade value, but even Nogueira’s salary isn’t enough and would require the Raptors to send out a second piece (Wright or Bruno Caboclo) in the deal to make the math work out.
There’s also the matter of Noel not suiting up yet this season as he works his way back from minor offseason knee surgery. He might not be back until December based on the most recent estimates, and the Raptors would have to be very comfortable with his medical records to be comfortable surrendering an asset for an injured player to plug an injury hole.
You can spin these risks and trade-offs however you see fit. I can see the argument both for and against moving assets for a Noel rental to supplant one or both of the rookies in the rotation. Personally, I think this is probably 900 words about nothing, and we’ll hear about the Raptors’ tepid interest in Noel again in February ahead of the trade deadline, assuming he hasn’t been dealt by then.
