The Raptors look to finish off the extended road trip that started off as the week from scheduling Hell with a happy ending tonight in Milwaukee. Having played in Cleveland against the defending champs, in the altitude against Denver, against justice in Sacramento and against both the first and second best teams in the league in point deferential in the second night of back-to-backs, the Raptors have to be pleased to be ending this road trip and doing so against a team like Milwaukee.
That isn’t to say that Milwaukee is a pushover by any stretch of the imagination, but the Bucks have not figured out how to be a very good team right now. They rank 16th in the league with a -0.92 scoring margin. While Giannis Antetomounmpo is blossoming into a star, the Bucks haven’t been able to turn the statistical nonsense machine that he’s become into team wins. Yes, Giannis looks to be making a leap, yes, Jabari Parker has been looking better and better and yes, the Bucks did try and address shooting in the off-season by bringing in Teletovic, Delevadova and Tony Snell. But the Bucks are still worst in the NBA in team 3pt%, bricking a remarkably bad 30% from outside. The Bucks also get to the line at a below average rate. When Giannis sits, the Bucks score 98 points per 100 possesions, a rate just fractionally better than the league worst offenses in Dallas and Orlando.
Defensively, the Bucks have been league average(ish), hinting at an ability to be above average on some nights. In the last few games, Greg Monroe has been taken out of the lineup entirely, garnering multiple DNPs, as the Bucks have experimented with playing Antetomounmpo at the point guard offensively and centre defensively. It’s an interesting look, and Giannis certainly has the length to pull it off somewhat. The lineup with Giannis-Parker-Teletovic-Snell allows the Bucks to essentially switch defensively on any action, simplifying the attack-style defense that the Bucks initiated two years ago into much more man-on-man coverage. There are definite advantages to being able to play this way. However, the Raptors pose two particular problems to this plan of attack. The first one is Jonas Valanciunas. Kidd has banished Monroe, the only body big enough to effectively bang down low with Jonas. The big man has struggled at times playing against stretch lineups, but that’s not what this Milwaukee lineup actually is. Everyone of those guys can handle the ball, and everyone of them can switch defensively, but while Teletovic and Parker have been good from 3 this year, Giannis, Snell and whoever the Bucks have been playing at point have been abysmal. Without the ability to punish the Raptors with spacing, it allows Valanciunas to go to work on the offensive end, bullying around the much smaller and weaker player who has the misfortune of guarding him. That’s a big plus for the Raptors, but there is an even bigger windfall for this matchup. While the Bucks defense has been OK, their downfall has been their inability to keep opponents off the free throw line. The Bucks give up more free throws per opponent field goal attempt than any other team in the league. Do you hear that? That’s the sound of DeMar DeRozan heading to the free throw line already. DeRozan is one of the last people a foul-happy team wants to see. His ability to get to the line against the Bucks has helped him lead the Raptors to a four game sweep of the Bucks last season, and wins against Milwaukee in 10 of the Raptors last 11 games against them.
While the last game of a long road trip can sometimes be a bit of a trap game, I would be shocked to see this Raptors team treat it as such. The Raptors had an extremely frustrating week between the Sacramento screw-job and playing tired and losing against the league’s top 3 teams. This is a squad that (rightly, I think) probably envisioned themselves getting off to a better than 9-6 start, and who showed a ton of focus and dedication in their last, and possibly best game of the season against Houston. Milwaukee is a smaller, foul-happy team with bad 3 point shooting, and the Raptors are hungry. It’s time to eat.
