DeMarcus Cousins is one of the premiere big men in the NBA – twice an NBA All-star, twice All-NBA, and a Team USA mainstay. He is a player who happens to be brought up in trade rumors each year, one whom Raptor fans salivate at the prospect of acquiring. The appeal is understandable – Boogie is a multi-talented scorer and rebounder, and is on track to record a fourth straight 20+ points and 10+ rebounds per game season. On paper, he resembles the cases of Chris Bosh and Kevin Love, All-star big men who couldn’t win on their own and joined other stars in an attempt to capture a title.
His statistics speak for themselves. Below is Cousins’ production against the top 3 teams in the NBA (Golden State, San Antonio and Cleveland) over the last two and a half seasons:
These numbers are very close to his overall averages against the rest of the NBA during the same time period, showing his ability to raise his game versus better competition (though Sacramento’s dearth of talent meant they were not in position to win said games). In addition, despite displaying what appears to be a disinterested demeanor at times, Boogie ranks impressively in a number of hustle categories – namely deflections (6th in the NBA this season, 1st among centers) and charges drawn per game (9th in the league and 3rd among centers). There is little doubt that he can put up numbers and dominate opponents, but all that glitters is not gold when it comes to Cousins.
DeMarcus is posting a 45.5% on field goals so far this season, ranking only 68th in the NBA in that category and 20th among centers (for comparison purposes, Jonas Valanciunas shoots 53.2%, ranking 16th overall and 11th among centers). One can rationalize this by his propensity to shoot threes, but his 55.8% true shooting figure only partly reflects that, putting him 66th in the NBA, 15th among centers. Cousins being the number one option on his team is the other part of the equation – his usage is a staggering 37.1%, 3rd highest in the league.
Meanwhile, DeRozan and Lowry’s usage rates are 34.2% and 24.3% respectively. This leads to the next problem – Toronto’s most successful basketball team in the franchise’s short history has been founded on the excellent chemistry between its two core pieces in DeMar and Kyle, and the willingness of the rest of the team to play peripheral roles around them. Adding another ball-dominant player risks disrupting the delicate chemistry the team developed over the last few seasons, and means the entire offense is to be re-engineered mid-season.
A significant portion of Toronto’s offense relies on JV’s much-improved screening (he’s 8th in the league in screen assists). This is something Cousins appears to have no interest in (at least with the Kings), ranking 82nd in the league in that category. To be fair, the possibility certainly exists that DeRozan would retain a similar number of open looks due to Cousins drawing more defensive attention.
However, once more the need to redesign the offense becomes apparent, an offense that has been tinkered with and perfected in its own unique way, without the advantage of a training camp. It’s no longer adding at the margins as Ujiri often does. Instead of having role players adjust their games to fit the Raptors style, the task becomes the addition of a whole new focal point to everything the club does. The resulting lack of familiarity with new offensive sets could prove to be the team’s downfall in the 2017 playoffs against a quality opponent. Ironically, the ultimate ‘win-now’ move would very possibly lead to failure to meet the current season’s objectives.
If the Raptors are willing to play out the 2017 playoffs with Cousins as a trial run with a view to being a serious contender in 2018, the pressure will be immense in that campaign – as it’ll be Cousins’ contract year ahead of unrestricted free agency, at which point the club risks losing him for nothing.
Setting that aside, let’s imagine everything plays out perfectly for Toronto in 2018, and they find themselves to be a well-oiled triple threat machine facing off against Cleveland in the Eastern Finals. Picture the 1st seeded Raptors drop game 1 at home to a vintage LeBron James performance, and enter a must-win game 2. The contest is a tight one, and the referees swallow their whistle for most of the night, allowing more contact than they should. In a tie situation early in the fourth quarter, 62-year-old Richard Jefferson elbows Cousins for the second time in the game without any of the officials noticing. In that moment, with an entire season, and in fact the entirety of Ujiri’s tenure with the Raptors hanging in the balance, do you trust DeMarcus Cousins to keep his cool? Do you trust Boogie to continue playing as though nothing happened? Because I don’t know if I do. Cousins has amassed 96 technical fouls in his 6.5-season career so far, getting ejected 10 (!) times. Just to draw a comparison to a certain bulldog who used to have a troublesome reputation before becoming The Man in Toronto, Kyle Lowry owns a total of 53 career technicals and 4 ejections, while playing 250 more games than Cousins.
The scenario above assumes every player gets in line, accepts their role and the team performs at an elite level within a year and a half of the initial trade. It assumes that Cousins is willing to significantly reduce his usage; that he’s willing to put in enough effort on the defensive end to stay in Coach Casey’s good books; that he’s willing to respect Casey enough to want to get in his good books in the first place (on more than one occasion he failed to do so with the Kings); and finally and perhaps most importantly, it assumes he will be able to translate his game effectively into the demanding environment of the NBA playoffs right away. This final point isn’t trivial – Cousins has zero playoff appearances to his name. That may not be his direct fault, but as his club’s undisputed franchise player, it’s not not his fault either.
In the DeMar DeRozan preview article ahead of the season, I wrote about the importance of playoff experience to subsequent success in that arena. It’s a different game, and both DeRozan and Lowry learned that the hard way, the former needing 4 full playoff series’ (25 games) before finally being able to efficiently translate his strengths to meaningful contributions in the third round. Kevin Love is a key comparison, as he struggled to show his quality in many of his post-season minutes (had none with the Wolves), so much so that he was a prime trade candidate before Cleveland came back from the grave to win the 2016 finals. Love had the benefit of a certain All-Time-Great carrying him to the Finals despite his ineffective play, a luxury the Raptors do not possess. With his tuition now paid, it’s more than likely that the sharp-shooting power forward will carry his improved form into this year’s playoffs, making the Cavaliers that much more dangerous. Like Love, DeRozan and Lowry gained valuable experience playing in April and May, while Cousins is yet to be tested in the cauldron that is the NBA playoffs. If the mega-trade happens, it’s the Raptors that would be paying for his inexperience, while risking his departure in 2018.
Finally, this brings us to the chip that many in Raptor land are ready to cash in for the possibility of adding Boogie – Jonas Valanciunas. With the exception of a few outings, JV has had a below-expectations season thus far, even sitting out the occasional fourth quarter yet again. He appears to be a poor fit within Toronto’s system, rarely sees the ball, and as a result appears less interested in doing the cleanup work asked of him.
It’s important to note that the Raptors’ offense is humming so far this year, scoring at a historical efficiency. At times, passes zip around the perimeter after the initial penetration until an open shooter is found, and JV rarely gets a touch. But the team’s recent success is akin to the winners of the undercard bouts of a boxing bill – though entertaining, it’s not what the people came to see. The people came to see the main event – the playoffs are where the Raptors will truly be judged. And in the postseason the game inevitably slows down, and the team’s regular season offensive rating proves unsustainable. It is in that slower game that JV excels most – he has shown that time and again, playing very well in his first series against Brooklyn, and recording career best performances against Indiana and Miami last season before getting injured.
When the open shot cannot be found under playoff pressure, it’s Valanciunas that has often bailed out the rest of the squad, and that cannot be forgotten. Yes, the Raptors are struggling to add wrinkles to the offense that would involve him more now, but the data would appear to point that when April comes around, if the big Lithuanian is still wearing Toronto colors, his contributions will once again make Raptor fans forget about his poor fit in the 82 games that precede them.
It cannot be denied that Cousins is a more talented and well-rounded player than Valanciunas is. And every time the Raptors play the Cavaliers it appears Toronto needs a quicker, more cerebral third star than Jonas to claim victory. But if DeMarcus Cousins is Masai’s all-in move, the question of whether he has the mentality necessary to win a championship as a key cog must be asked. If the JV, Ross/Powell and picks trade happens, I’ll be curious and excited to see what unfolds, hopeful of a Lowry-like transformation that will make Boogie an equal member of a first true Raptors big-three. But as intriguing as that possibility may be, it would be completely understandable if Ujiri prefers to wait out another trade deadline, as he scans within and without for the final piece of the puzzle.
