So here we are, in Jonas Valanciunas’ 5th NBA season with more questions than answers. It’s been a whirlwind of emotions since the amazing playoff performance from the 2015-2016 season, that saw Valanciunas turn heads and silence some of his doubters. In multiple playoff series, when given the ball he could score against some really good defensive centers, he could put a teams rebounding needs on his back, and could be a pretty good defender at times. This outbreak/performance changed the expectations on him entering the next season. Maybe Valanciunas could finally become the consistent third option the Raptors had been looking for.
There was an interesting hiccup in his offseason though. When playing with the Lithuanian Olympic Men basketball team, a team where Valanciunas has usually been one of the main centre pieces. After a disappointing effort in the Olympic tournament, his coach Jonas Kazlauskas, had some somewhat harsh comments about JV’s performance and work ethic, “I believe Lithuania will be his team in the future and he’ll be fine. But he has to dedicate himself to basketball more.” These words were shocking to hear for Raptors fans, our editor Blake Murphy had an interesting opinion on Kazluaskas’ comments, Blake wrote in an article –
“Kazlauskas, for what it’s worth, is in his fourth summer with Valanciunas, so he ostensibly knows the player well enough. ‘Dedicate’ here is an interesting word choice, because Valanciunas has played with the Lithuanian national team every offseason…I’ve never heard much internal criticism of Valanciunas’ work ethic (much the opposite, if anything, and I’ve always gotten the impression he takes playing poorly pretty hard).”
Now in his fifth season, the big step forward we thought he would take this season hasn’t quite happened. There are two camps fans seem to be in when it comes to Valanciunas; 1. He isn’t utilized as a scorer enough, and isn’t given a fair chance to prove himself down the stretch of games. 2. He is still a poor defensive player who is still inconsistent on the offensive end and deserves the amount of time he currently gets. Whether you see him as someone who has the potential to be a very good offensive weapon on a good team, or a Lithuanian Jahlil Okafor, both sides have legitimate arguments to how they view Valanciunas as a player.
Looking at some of his numbers, Valanciunas’ is having a pretty similar season to last years regular season. He’s averaging about the same amount of minutes, points, field goal attempts, TRB%, TS%, USG%, and pre Ibaka his role hadn’t really changed all that much. Post Ibaka, those numbers have changed drastically. His minutes are down from 26.1 minutes to 21.1, this including his breakout game against the Pelicans last night where he played 8.6 minutes in the fourth quarter. The Raptors style of play and matchups usually call for a player like Ibaka, and Valanciunas’ role may change within the rotations because of this.
One of the areas where fans feel that Valanciunas is potentially underutilized continues to be his lack of playing time in the fourth quarter, where the addition of Ibaka will see Valaciunas play even fewer minutes down the stretch of games. This season, he has played in a total of 61 games, only seeing time in the fourth quarter 36 times, averaging 6 minutes when he does see floor time in the fourth.
There are reasons for his lack of playing time in the fourth quarter. The biggest reason being Valanciunas’ lack of consistency on the defensive end. The Raptors post a +4.8 defensive rating when Valanciunas is off the floor (per bball reference), pick and roll defense continues to be his greatest defensive knock (not getting out on shooters, being helpless when switched onto players who are smaller then him), and protecting the rim where shots 6ft within the basket opponents are shooting 62% when he is defending the rim. The Raptors have been a stellar fourth quarter team this season, they have also been very efficient in clutch situations. Parts of the game that Valanciunas usually effects positively for the Raptors like rebounding, go unchanged without him in the fourth quarter.
In certain matchups, he can be extremely effective. In the previous game against the New Orleans Pelicans (one of his best games of the season), Valanciunas was the Raptors best option down the stretch guarding low post technician DeMarcus Cousins. But when teams decide to go small, Valanciunas can sometimes be a liability, and the Raptors coaching staff usually decided to send out their own small lineups. Offensively, when Ibaka has been in the lineup compared to JV, the Raptors are able to space out a bit more allowing players like DeRozan open lanes for penetration, and easy drive and kick opportunities. Casey has been pretty open on why he goes small rather than have Valanciunas play late in games. In an ESPN article, Casey was quoted as saying, “If your big guys don’t dominate, you have to go small..I tell Jonas (Valanciunas) ‘Oh, you want to play more? Then dominate. I don’t want to see fadeaways over 6-8 guys. Get to the rim. Get every offensive rebound. If not, you’re coming out.’” This is a very fair assessment of why Casey will continue to opt to use Ibaka over Valanciunas late in games. The Raptors most of the time, have no option but to go small in these situations.
Offensively, Valanciunas is a fairly one dimensional center, but his skills on the offensive end still have great value. He is still a very efficient scorer when the ball is dumped to him on the low block, where he shoots 61% on shots near the rim and he continues to show great touch around the rim when given the opportunities. One problem this season, is the career low amount of post touches he is getting. The chart below shows the amount of post touches Valanciunas sees per game throughout his career. Whether or not Valanciunas is getting the proper positioning in the post to get more opportunities to isolate and score, the Raptors might need to make more of an effort to let him get into that area and show his best weapon on offense, simply because it’s an efficient shot to take in any possession.
His pick and pop game has improved a lot this year. The first shot chart below is from the 2015-2016 season. The top of the key area, where he would receive the ball the most on the pick and pop opportunities, he shot only 16 shots all season. In the second picture which is this season, he’s already taken 49 shots, making 51% of them.
In the video below you see the two sides to his pick and pop game. The first clip against the Wizards, Valanciunas hesitates on his shot slightly and loses his opportunity to shoot an open shot. Instead, he fakes and settles for a contested jumper. In the second video, he quickly recognizes Jusuf Nurkic drop down to far on the pick and roll, and he gets a nice wide open shot, without any hesitation he rises up and hits a pretty confident looking jump shot.
While his shooting touch is improving, the hesitation we see in some of Valanciunas’ lack of shot selection is what we see more often than not. When showing confidence in his shot, Valanciunas has shown that he has the ability to be able to be pretty effective in catch and shoot situations.
One other part of Valanciunas’ game that might go unnoticed in the box score, is his ability to set great screens. He is often tasked to run to the baseline, sprint back up to the ball handler, set a good screen, and role back to the basket. Being a center who doesn’t get the ball often can sometimes be a mundane job on the court, and for someone with Valanciunas’ slow foot speed, he ranks 24th in the NBA in all centers in miles run on the offensive end this year, which is a lot considering he’s playing 26 minutes per game. It’s a lot of back and fourth, but Valanciunas never shies away from setting hard screens for the ball handler. This season he is averaging 3.7 screen assists, which ranks him 12th in the NBA. This is a underestimated piece in the Raptors offense, as a good screen can be the difference between an open shot, and a play completely collapsing, wasting precious shot clock seconds. Setting good screens might go unnoticed at times, but they are absolutely vital to a teams offense in their half court sets.
For those of you who may follow me or interact with me on Twitter, it’s no surprise I can be tough on Valanciunas at times. It’s not because I dislike him as a player, it’s because his performances can be underwhelming for what most of our expectations of him are. He shows a ton of potential in his skill set, and has plenty of opportunity to showcase that, but more often then not he hasn’t stepped up.
Games like last night against the Pelicans make me so happy. I was fist pumping every offensive rebound and put back, every time JV would pass out of a postup confident he was going to get another one, rolling hard to the rim after setting a screen, and making smart decisive defensive coverages. While sometimes I feel as though Valanciunas isn’t used properly, most of the time I see the reasons why he isn’t out there late in games. Last night, the matchup suited Valanciunas and he took advantage and gave one of his best performances of the season. Dwayne Casey had no option but to play him for a majority of crunch time.
After the Pelicans game, Valanciunas had some interesting comments that make you believe that he himself is still feeling underutilized. “I’m ready every night, I’m waiting for that chance, give me a chance and I’m gonna go and fight hard.” It says something to be in his fifth year in the league, spending a large part of that time being a starter, and he still feels as though he’s waiting for some sort of chance.
Valanciunas has been given plenty of opportunities to step up into the player he has shown flashes of being. If he wants that chance in the fourth he needs to continue to do some of the dirty work that goes largely unnoticed, capitalize on matchups that favor in his directions, and put in a consistent effort on the defensive end. It’s hard to imagine him not getting a bigger role if he strings together some more games like he did last night, but then again, that’s not the first time I’ve written that sentence..
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