It’s no secret that a year ago, when the Toronto Raptors set the franchise record for wins with 56, they owed a lot of that success to a bench unit that could be relied on, night after night, to out-play the benches of opposing teams. The best variation of that bench was consistently Kyle Lowry, Cory Joseph, Terrence Ross, Patrick Patterson and Bismack Biyombo. When Biyombo left last summer, there were questions over whether they’d be able to find, once again, that level of success from their second unit.
Early in the season, it looked like the group of Lowry, Joseph, Ross, Patterson and Bebe Nogueira would be the replacement as they once again dominated early second and fourth quarters and the team raced out to a 22-8 record at Christmas time. Shortly thereafter, Patterson went down with an injury, though, and the struggles began. The bench couldn’t find their consistency without him and the team went just 11-16 between Christmas and the arrival of Serge Ibaka, after the trade deadline.
Since Ibaka and PJ Tucker’s arrivals, even with Kyle Lowry missing time due to injury, the team has been able to find success, with a 10-5 record since the All-Star break. That bench unit from a year ago is gone though, with Cory Joseph starting in the place of Lowry(and largely struggling, especially defensively), Terrence Ross having joined Biyombo in Orlando as part of the Ibaka trade, only Patterson remains a bench player in the current rotation.
Since the deadline Patterson has seen a reduction in both role and performance though, averaging just 20 minutes a game while shooting 39.2% from the field and only scoring in double digits twice in that 15 game stretch. He hasn’t looked the same player he was earlier this season on either end of the floor, frequently struggling with his shot and looking a step slow defensively, and the coaching staff seems to have noticed, with him being replaced more and more often in critical situations by either Tucker or Ibaka, as they’ve shown impressive defensive chemistry and closed out games well in smaller lineups.
The schedule is somewhat easy through the remainder of the regular season, and with their recent success, the Raptors look to be at least the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference, perhaps even with a shot to move up in the standings. With this success coming during the same period as Patterson’s struggles, it’d be hard to say he’s been critical to the team’s performance. However, the player he was earlier this season and a year ago, a guy who could be frequently depended to bring up the defensive intensity of his teammates and switch onto opponents on the perimeter with success, guarding at times the best players in the league with some level of success, could be important looking forward to the later rounds of the playoffs.
Part of the attraction of the Ibaka acquisition was the potential for Ibaka/Patterson frontcourts to switch against small-ball opponent lineups and guard everywhere efficiently. To his credit, Ibaka has been fantastic against smaller teams and has, more often than not, hit the open shots generated for him on the perimeter. The Raptors just need Patterson to hold up his end of the bargain to fulfill that potential. He’s fallen in love with trying to take guys off the dribble of late, rather than taking(and hopefully making) the open shots provided by teammates’ passes, and while it can be entertaining, he’s not the type of player you like to have working off the bounce frequently.
At the outset of the season, the challenge for the Raptors this coming summer was how to re-sign both Lowry and Patterson with little cap space and both players set for large paydays, but with Tucker and Ibaka both also free agents, it sets a new challenge for the team. Bringing all of them back would set the team way into the luxury tax, likely farther than MLSE would be willing to go, and Lowry has been the heart and soul of the organization for the best stretch of seasons the franchise has had, so it’s an easy lock that he stays. Ibaka has cemented himself, in a very short time, as the best option in the frontcourt for this team as currently constructed, while Tucker’s toughness and defensive intensity has been critical to the team coming back in several games since arriving. This leaves Patterson’s fate somewhat in limbo, as he looks the most expendable of the four, and hasn’t played up to the level fans have learned to expect from him.
At the end of the day, Patterson finding his way again might not be at the center of the Raptors getting out of the first round again – this team is good enough, even with him struggling, to get past an early playoff opponent. However, without him at his best, it’s hard to imagine them having much shot of getting past the Cleveland Cavaliers to win the Eastern Conference, and with Lowry and DeMar DeRozan solidly in their primes, this should be the best shot the franchise will have. Patterson has been among the team’s most dependable, prior to his Christmas injury, and needs to return to that player to both improve the ceiling of the team.
