With ten games remaining in the Toronto Raptors regular season schedule the squad is playing arguably their best basketball of the season.
Following the All-Star break teams enter the segment of the schedule better known as the stretch run. During these 25 games teams attempt to integrate new roster additions, tweak areas of weakness and ultimately get their stars as much rest as possible. All while trying to retain or improve playoff seeds and most importantly head into the post season with momentum.
Its the time of year when daily checks of the standings occur to gauge where teams will land come season end. Without the services of Kyle Lowry and having to integrate Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker the Raptors entered the stretch run with a myriad of questions. Concerns loomed over whether the Raptors could retain a home court seed and better yet improve upon their fourth seed with hopes of avoiding the Cavaliers until the Eastern Conference Finals.
Now, with ten games remaining the Raptors have moved within a half game of Washington and appear poised to overtake them. If we are to believe Adrian Wojnarowski’s initial report, Lowry should be close to a return which would allow time to get the offense back on track and get him time to mesh with Ibaka and Tucker. Moreover the squad is playing the best defense we’ve seen, arguably since Dwane Casey took the head coaching reins. Years of ‘pound the rock’ advertised anthems feel palpable as the squad looks closer and tougher than any previous iteration.
Analyzing the Schedule:
Although the top four seeds appear locked into their home court positions precisely where they’ll finish is still up in the air. Although the Cavaliers remain atop the Eastern Conference (a position they’ve held all season) they hold a precarious one game lead over the Boston Celtics who have the easiest schedule remaining.
Digging into the numbers of the season and post All-Star break offers reason for further optimism:
Ironically, as the Raptors set their sights on the third seed, the Cavaliers could potentially fall to second given their tough remaining schedule compared to the Celtics easy schedule. Surely Casey is telling the team to focus on what they can control. Besides, odds are LeBron James will do what is necessary to retain the top seed.
Creating the above chart offered some interesting takeaways:
Defensive Improvement:
The Raptors are the only team of the four Eastern Conference home court seeds who have made dramatic improvements following the break. While the Raptors began the season on fire offensively, they labored in the basement defensively. To put into perspective just how great Toronto’s defense has improved, their overall season rank now ranks in the top 10 for the year (9).
In contrast, the Cavaliers and Wizards have regressed dramatically on the defensive side while the Celtics offense has dissipated. Sure, the Raptors offense has also regressed, but has shown signs of improvement lately and Lowry’s return should provide another lift.
DeRozan Ascends:
In all his years in Toronto no one has ever questioned DeRozan‘s work ethic, offensive production or heart. That said, DeMar’s ability to defend or incorporate his teammates has been the focus of post game recaps aplenty. Again, the absence of Lowry has worked as a benefit to DeRozan who has raised his level of play across the board. Perhaps Tucker was the perfect elixir for the shooting guard who seems to be embracing his new found defensive aptitude. Regardless of the reason, the Raptors are the benefactors of his efforts.
Performance against top squads:
Miami have been the hottest team in the Association, but the Raptors dispensed of them with relative ease last night. This is a squad who ranks in the top six in the three key categories post break. Last evening’s come from behind victory reminded fans of the Toronto team from last season, when no matter how great the divide, there was a belief this squad would be in it to win at game end. For the record, the win last night was the 19th occasion (League leading) the Raptors have come back from ten or more points to win the match.
Youth Rising:
Although the absence of Lowry certainly wasn’t ideal, in hindsight it may be considered a blessing given the experience Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet and Jakob Poeltl have gained. Each of these youngsters has played meaningful minutes during the stretch and could easily be inserted in clutch situations in the post season. This became most apparent last night in Miami when the Heat youngsters who’ve provided the lift in South Beach had no answer for Wright or Poeltl.
Games versus top 4 seeds:
If there is an area of concern it would be how the Raptors perform against the top 4 seeds in each conference. Notably, Toronto lost all three meetings with the Cavaliers as well as both games versus the Warriors and Spurs. If there is a sliver lining, the revamped roster has not not faced those teams nor were the Raptors playing their current top three defense at the time.
Milestone Wins:
During the stretch the Raptors have garnered some major victories, in some cases of the psychological nature. Getting the monkey off their backs versus the Bulls served to erase a three plus season dilemma. Toronto has also demonstrated a toughness which says “don’t mess with the bull if you don’t want the horns” in wins versus Boston (Isaiah Thomas finger gun incident), Detroit (prior to break when Jodie Meeks tossed Lowry to the court), and most recently the Bulls game where Ibaka showed the Raptors won’t take a punch lying down.
This might not seem important, but from this scribes perspective it showcases how invested the team is in one another. I’ll point you to the incident at Oracle where potential MVP candidate Russell Westbrook lay splayed on the court with fake tough guy Zaza Pachulia looming above him and Westbrook’s teammates stood watching. Can you imagine if DeRozan or Lowry suffered the same disrespect the number of suspensions likely to be levied?
Who will the Raptors Face?
all stats via nba.com
If the playoffs were to start today the Raptors would face the Atlanta Hawks. Not exactly a scary proposition given their current 5-game losing streak. Yet, with the 5-10 seeds so tightly bunched, Toronto’s post season opponent won’t be known likely until the last evening of the regular season. Avoiding the Bucks would be wise as other than the Heat they are the one team who is playing well post break (of the lower seeds). Plus there is that matter of Antetokounmpo to deal with. Over a 7-game series I hesitate to think of the damage the young Greek Freak might do.
In all seriousness, there isn’t a squad in the lower tier (including the Heat) who should scare Toronto. None of the lower tier squads can match the Raptors depth or possess solid 2-way games other than the Heat and over a 7-game series the Raptors should prevail. However, the odds Miami will ascend to the fifth or sixth seed seems unlikely given their remaining schedule. Six of their final ten games are on the road. Of those, six are against playoff seeds (5 versus the top EC seeds). And another two are against teams still trying to get into the playoff mix.
In Closing:
Ultimately the stretch run may work to iron out kinks, rest players and get healthy to the post season. In reality however, this period often dictates how a team will perform in the post season. Finding the perfect compliment of above factors and combining it with a view to a slow build of momentum is key.
If I told you pre All-Star Break the Raptors would rank within a fraction of the Spurs defensively, would you have bought my argument? Yet, there they are.
In the post season teams may be able to isolate on Lowry and DeRozan. But, can opponents stop Toronto’s offense for an entire contest? More importantly, can opponents mount a defensive presence to beat the Raptors, or counter the current best fourth quarter defense in the NBA? Sure, LeBron James is the best at flipping the switch. However, can James older cohorts raise their defensive prowess from their basement rank to meet the Raptors.
Each day I scour the media in eager anticipation of announcements of Kyle Lowry’s return. If Woj’s prediction is accurate, fans could expect to see him sometime shortly after the calendar switches to April. My gut says the Philly boy would be thrilled to come back facing his home town. Don’t hold me to this, it’s merely a hopeful guess. Should that be the case he’d be able to get in 6 games prior to the playoffs.
With ten games remaining the answers to all these questions will come shortly. What I do know is the Raptors will enter the post season having faced and beat stiff competition, on a defensive terror, and deeper than any team in franchise history. Moreover, Toronto enters on a steady climb upward seemingly hitting that delicate balance of momentum at the perfect time.
