2015-16 DeMar DeRozan was a beast. It was a contract season for him, he had his best statistical season to date, and was one of the Raptors best players on route to their first Eastern Conference Finals appearance. It was without a doubt a huge season for him, and he reaped the benefits of his body of work in the offseason signing a five- year $139 million dollar deal. He’s come a long way from his rookie days where he was afraid to put the ball on the floor, or even shoot at times. Most fans were ecstatic that DeRozan was staying at least another four years (fifth year is a player option), another vastly different feeling than the one felt when he signed a four-year $38 million dollar contract in the 2012 offseason.
This was a well deserved contract for DeRozan, who has grown his game every offseason, adding more and more tools to his offensive arsenal. It was difficult to think about him taking another step forward, considering his play in 2015-16. But this season, DeRozan has taken five steps forward. His game has reached heights that most people couldn’t possibly predict when thinking back on that young rookie out of USC.
DeRozan has gotten a lot of credit for his play this season, starting in the All-Star game is a huge honor considering all the competition the guard position has is in the Eastern Conference. All-NBA honors are even more credit to a players great season, it’s not just a first half of the season popularity contest, it credits a roster of 15 players who showed that their entire season of work was good enough for them to be considered one of the top players at their position.
DeRozan is definitely a deserving candidate for All-NBA, with six spots up for grabs in the guard category the competition is tough. Russell Westbrook, and James Harden are locks for the two guards spots in the All-NBA First team, from there the other four positions aren’t as easy to predict. You could make a case for players like John Wall, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Isaiah Thomas, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Lowry, Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, and Kemba Walker. With all these great seasons to sort through statistically, it’s interesting to note how past voting results could play a factor into this years results.
Since 1988-1989 when the NBA added the All-NBA Third team, 100 of the 140 players selected to All-NBA honors have made the playoffs. Of the 40 players who missed the playoffs 4 got selected to the first team, 17 to the second, and 19 to the third. Players like DeMarcus Cousins, who put up monster numbers, averaging 25.6 points, and 12 rebounds in the two years he made it on teams that had no chance of making the playoffs, are the exceptions here. For the most part, voters will tend to pick players on playoff teams, giving even more preference to players in top seeds. Giving players like Kemba Walker, or the lower seeded Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum a distinct disadvantage in All-NBA voting.
Missing time due to injuries can also play a factor in voting. Minus the two lockout seasons in 1998-1999, and 2011-2012 only 23 players have made All-NBA while playing 65 games or less in a season. 4 from the first team, 6 from the second, 13 from the third, and Scottie Pippen in 1997-98 playing the least amount of games with just a little more than half a season at 44 games, but still received honors for All-NBA Third Team. Missing time as a guard is more detrimental in voting than missing time as a forward or a center, only 6 of the 23 players listed were guards, the remaining players are mostly centers. With missing time playing a big role on who gets voted in, Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry might be at a disadvantage having only played 60 games this year.
Looking through stats and putting an emphasis on team success, I would say the final four spots should be (in no order) John Wall, DeMar DeRozan, Stephen Curry, and Isaiah Thomas. DeRozan is fifth right now in the league in scoring, on a team that just won its 50th game, locked up third place in the Eastern Conference, and he did a lot of the heavy lifting without Lowry. He’s posting career highs in points 27.3, rebounds 5.2, USG% 34.3%, and FG% 46% (didn’t hit statistical minimums in 2009-2010). He’s hit the 40 point mark seven times this year, and the 30 point mark 32 times. Theirs no question that DeRozan deserves a lot of consideration for making an All-NBA team this season, with the numbers he’s posting, and the team success the Raptors are having, I would say he’s a lock. Their still is stiff competition, and surprises happen all the time. It will be interesting to see how the voting results shake out, but I would be surprised if we saw DeRozan’s body of work this season go unnoticed by voters.
Signing a new contract can usually go one of two ways: players can feel a sense of security, they can feel as though their play in their contract season was enough for them to celebrate, take a break, and perform close to that level in following seasons. Then their are players like DeRozan, who went into the gym the next day to get better. They feel as though expectations come with a new contract that need to be met. DeRozan is deserving of a lot of credit for his play this season, going forward I don’t doubt that he will take another step forward next season or even this postseason, and I can’t imagine what his game will look like in years to come.
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