Can James Johnson take one more shot at the Toronto Raptors in 2016-17?
Remember how Johnson went lightly used in last year’s playoffs before the team’s series against LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers? Brought back after two years away from the team for matchups exactly like that, Johnson fell out of the rotation entirely by the postseason, with injury, conditioning, performance, and the presence of DeMarre Carroll and Norman Powell conspiring to limit him to two four brief appearances over the first two rounds. With James opposite them, the Raptors tasked Johnson with 13.6 minutes per-game against the Cavaliers and got a nice spark in Games 1 and 2.
That Johnson’s time didn’t work out in Toronto is something I’ve written about on a couple of occasions here, and the blame is shared across player, coach, and system. That Johnson’s found success in Miami is a credit to him, his dedication, and the Heat staff, the marriage a much better one than Johnson-Toronto ever was. These things aren’t worth giving a lot of mental energy to at this point in time, because what was was and what is is. Johnson, though, may feel differently, as evidenced by his 8-of-10 close to the Heat’s loss to the Raptors on Friday. Johnson wanted it, surely not just because Miami needed the win desperately for their playoff lives. Similarly, he’s definitely hitting a game-winner against James and the Cavaliers tonight, because now that the Raptors have locked up a top-three seed and Miami can’t catch up to sixth, this is Johnson’s last best shot at getting revenge on the Raptors – dropping Cleveland to second.
Okay, he probably wants to win just because the Heat desperately need it, separate of anything to do with the Raptors. Okay, not even probably. Definitely. Ain’t nobody hung up on exes they dated twice like that, not when they’ve found new happiness. But let us assign motivation and pretend like Johnson is out to get the Raptors and not just to help himself. Because it’s more fun that way, and there was no other way to lead into our off-day news and notes post, and it’s way more fun than focusing on whatever it is the Cavs are trying to do.
Cavaliers apparently planning to sit Big 3 tonight in Miami, possible punt on No. 1 seed @clevelanddotcom https://t.co/NwkxbauURS
— Joe Vardon (@joevardon) April 10, 2017
Resting players makes all the sense in the world. Doing so now, after James has been tasked with 216 minutes over an eight-day span, seems an odd time to start focusing on that. Why wasn’t this the plan the entire time? Why did the Cavs go full-out against Boston last week? Why did James play a combined 400 minutes over two losses to the Hawks? The Cavs have no logical reason to prefer the two-seed, to be clear, it’s just that they no longer seem to care about the one-seed. Which…sure, whatever. There’s nothing the Raptors could do about it now, and not being able to take advantage and grab the one-seed is a crime of January and no longer worth wringing hands about. They’re going to have to go through Cleveland eventually. Right?
Monday’s Seeding implications
We’re going to make this round-up a regular pre-game news & note feature the rest of the way:
- 1-2 seed: Cleveland visits Miami, Boston hosts Brooklyn. The Cavs are hilarious, man. There is no good reason they wouldn’t want the one seed, and they’re tasking LeBron James with a heavy workload, yet here they are, blowing winnable games and opening up William Lou conspiracy theories. As such, their hold on the one-seed has weakened – they still own the tiebreaker over Boston but close with at-Miami, vs-Toronto, while the Celtics have vs-Brooklyn, vs-Milwaukee, a slightly easier close-out. And now their four best players are sitting, waiving the Heat into the playoffs and possibly knocking the Bulls out. There’s a scenario brewing where the Raptors will be better off losing to Cleveland on Wednesday in order to keep the Cavaliers in the top spot. (Cleveland has a 49-percent chance at the one seed,per Inpredictable’s model.)
- Want Toronto in the two-seed? They have to win Wednesday while Boston goes 0-2.
- The Raptors can’t finish first (they could tie Cleveland, but the Cavs own the tiebreaker, and the Cavs would win a three-way tiebreaker).
- 3-4 seed: These are set now, unless Toronto jumps to two. Toronto is third, Washington is fourth, and both are just sitting around to see what happens in the two seeds below them. (Toronto has a two-percent chance at the two-seed, per Inpredictable.)
- 5-7 seed: Atlanta is off, Milwaukee hosts Charlotte, Indiana visits Philadelphia. The Hawks are back in control of fifth after knocking off the Cavaliers twice, and it now seems fairly likely Toronto will draw Milwaukee in the first round. But the Bucks have to deal with Charlotte (playing for nothing) and Boston (possibly playing for the one-seed), making it conceivable that Indiana could still creep up to sixth, particularly if Indiana-Atlanta on the final day of the season doesn’t mean much to the Hawks and does to the Pacers (figuring that out requires assuming the team’s preferences in opponent). This is a bit of a mess, and Indiana is kind of a big swing team with their two-way mobility in the standings. (Atlanta has an 89-percent chance of finishing fifth. Milwaukee has a 74-percent chance at the six-seed. Indiana has a 20-percent chance of jumping higher than seventh.)
- 8-9 seed: Chicago hosts Orlando, Miami hosts Cleveland. This group should maybe still include Indiana since the Pacers are the odd team out if 7-9 ends in a three-way tie, and FiveThirtyEight sees Indiana falling out 20 percent of the time. But that one-game edge looms huge, and the Bulls did Indiana a huge favor in losing to Brooklyn on the weekend. The Bulls own the tiebreaker over the Heat, but here’s hoping Miami finds a way in while Chicago coughs one up. (Miami has just a 32-percent chance of making the playoffs. Indiana has an 87-percent chance of getting in. Chicago has an 81-percent chance. All per Inpredictable – 538 sees it as slightly more open than those numbers would suggest.)
- Other relevant games: The Raptors have a draft pick to watch out for, too, and it will almost certainly fall in the 22-24 range. The Raptors get the more favorable of their pick and the Clippers’, and both teams are likely to finish in the 22-25 range. Just root for the Clippers to do the worst of the Raptors-Jazz-Clippers-Wizards group and Toronto will pick 22nd. Right now, they’d pick 23rd.
Raptors playoff schedule
We won’t know the Raptors’ playoff schedule until very late Wednesday night, but we have a good idea of when Game 2 will take place. The Toronto Maple Leafs play home games at the Air Canada Centre on Monday and Wednesday of next week, so the Raptors will almost surely be hosting Game 2 on Tuesday to accommodate. With a Tuesday Game 2, the Raptors could still open Saturday or Sunday, but the early Saturday tip seems a safe bet for a fourth year in a row. I suppose a Sunday-Thursday Games 1 and 2 is also theoretically possible, but Sat-Tues, or maybe Sun-Tues, seem most likely.
(I know this bothers some, especially since the Raptors are 0-3 in those games. Personally, I kind of think it’s a nod of appreciation to the Raptors fanbase, with the NBA trusting Toronto/Jurassic Park/the ACC to bring a playoff atmosphere so early. Maybe I’m being too positive.)
Sadly, I don’t think the Leafs will make it back home for a Game 6 the following Sunday, but the Raptors wouldn’t be slated for a Game 5 until that Monday at the earliest, anyway.
Raptors 905 playoff schedule
The Maine Red Claws host the Fort Wayne Mad Ants tonight. If Maine wins, they’ll see Raptors 905 in the Eastern Conference Finals as early as Wednesday. If the series extends to a third game, Raptors 905 will be stuck waiting to find out their opponent for a Friday Game 1 and a compressed round two schedule – the Mississauga Steelheads would play Games 6 and 7 against the Oshawa Generals on Sunday and Tuesday if the series extends that far (it’s 1-1 right now). There wasn’t a great deal of certainty as to the different scheduling scenarios when the 905 wrapped up their series Saturday, but they’re probably rooting for a Maine victory so that they can, you know, not take nearly a week off between playoff games. (Also, Maine isn’t significantly better than Fort Wayne, or at all.)
