For the first time in five seasons the Toronto Raptors will not improve their win total from the previous year. In spite of that, Toronto have posted their second consecutive 50-win campaign and enter the playoffs with arguably their most versatile roster and in the best health of the past four seasons. Prior to preparing for Giannis Antetokounmpo however, the squad has one game remaining to complete their 82-game campaign.
The Raptors arrive at Quicken Loans on a 3-game win streak, coincidentally the same number of games since Kyle Lowry’s return. While there are obvious kinks to work out in terms of rhythm, timing and meshing with his new teammates, overall the signs have been encouraging. In three games Lowry has posted averages of 18.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, 9 assists and 2.3 steals. More importantly his shooting stroke hasn’t seemed to suffer coming off wrist surgery as he’s shooting 47.5% from the field and 36.8% from deep. Obviously this is a small sample size and includes a cold performance in Miami, but having a healthy Lowry entering the first round is a bonus the Raptors weren’t afforded the past two seasons.
Per our FATS calculator, the Toronto Raptors play like a 51.8-win team with Kyle Lowry. Without him, they play like a 40.6-win team. pic.twitter.com/wNSozM8X9U
— NBA Math (@NBA_Math) April 10, 2017
Finishing Strong:
Offseason preparations focused on the desire to return to the Eastern Conference Finals for a rematch versus the Cavaliers. Although Cleveland won the 2016-17 season series 3-0 (by a cumulative 11 points), all three games occurred in the first quarter. Since then, the Cavaliers have shown steady regression defensively and the Raptors have added valuable roster talent and depth. Tonight’s game won’t offer much in terms of a litmus test given reports several Cavaliers won’t dress. Most notably LeBron James is definitely out. Conversely, based on Dwane Casey’s post practice comments the Raptors should have all hands on deck.
On preparation for game 82:
“We’ll prepare for it like we do the other 81, its one of 82 games and we got to go in and work on our habits, offensively and defensively and go into the weekend with some momentum.” – Casey
On who will play (rest versus rust):
“Everybody is going to play. We need repetitions with each other. Rest versus rust is a huge issue. All I know is we’ve struggled going into that first game, we’ve rested guys and it didn’t help going into the playoffs. We’ve got a lot of issues we are working out, combos who haven’t been together, different things we want to do with those combos. Whether it’s 15, 20, 25 minutes, we got to get a little work in.” – Casey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKPmOZgGqso
Playoff Seed Updates and Implications:
Although the Raptors know their position (third) and their opponent (Bucks) tonight offers some suspense with both Toronto and Milwaukee being able to effect the ultimate result.
Eastern Conference top two seeds:
Boston controls their own fate as a win versus the Bucks will afford them the top seed. If the Raptors beat the Cavs the Celtics also snare the top seed. In order for Cleveland to ascend to the top spot they’ll need to beat the Raptors and hope the Bucks also beat the Celtics. Both games have a tip-off time of 8:00 p.m. ET, so watch to see if you catch players during the game looking up at the scoreboard. It does seem like a long shot for the Cavaliers, especially with reports Antetokounmpo, Dellavedova and possibly others won’t play in Boston.
Seeds 3 – 6 are set, Raptors will play Bucks:
The Raptors, Wizards, Hawks and Bucks are locked into the middle of the bracket. With Atlanta’s victory on Tuesday over the Hornets they secured the fifth seed since they own the tiebreak over the Bucks and the Pacers can’t match Atlanta’s win total. This means the Raptors will face the Bucks in the first round. While RR will dive into this matchup in depth in the coming days the Bucks weren’t necessarily the ideal opponent.
That said, the Raptors hold the season series 3-1 and the Bucks enter the post season with very little playoff experience outside of Matthew Dellavedova. Like the Raptors (17-7 or 70%), Milwaukee have played well since the break (17-9). Although many were hoping for an Atlanta first round match, it should be noted the Hawks rank third defensively since the break and first overall in the past ten games (98.8), so maybe this was a blessing in disguise.
Seeds 7-8:
It feels unfair the Miami Heat will likely be the odd man out after their surprising second half. Certainly injuries and schedule weren’t kind to the Heat down the stretch. Entering game 82 the Heat will need to beat the Wizards and then hope for some help from one of the Bulls or Pacers. Chicago looks to be a lock since they own tiebreaks over both the Pacers and Heat and finish the season hosting the Nets. A Heat win over the Wizards and Pacers loss to Atlanta gets Miami into the playoffs.
While these teams may not play a factor for the Raptors, if the eventual seventh seed were to upset the two seed they would advance to play the winner of the Raptors – Bucks series. That might send shudders through Raptorland especially since it’s the Raptors nemesis Bulls who are most likely to capture the seventh seed. But, if the Cavaliers end up second I’m sure there would be rejoicing in the 6ix if the Bulls advance.
Raptors and Cavaliers Stat Comparison:
You’ll note I’ve added a segment to my usual stat comparison. The fourth and fifth columns demonstrate how the teams have fared since the All-Star Break. Notably the Cavaliers faced the majority of their Western Conference road trips in this period, but the Raptors were also without arguably their best player (Lowry) in the same time frame. At first glance it’s easy to isolate two teams headed in opposite directions. The one negative for the Raptors is their assists per game. Although this roster will never compete with the Warriors in the assist category the ball movement has been showing signs of improvement recently, especially since Lowry’s return. The other factor to keep in mind is while the Raptors improved to top five in many key defensive categories, with Lowry back there is room for the Raptors to grow or return to their early season offensive prowess.
Conversely, the Cavaliers have been abysmal defensively, especially since the break. Sure, the narrative exists for LeBron and company to simply flip a switch to get back on track. But, assuming a squad who lounged in the defensive basement for over 3 months can snap out of their funk seems like a tall task. Furthermore, expecting Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, Channing Frye and Kyle Korver to suddenly become above average defenders also feels like a stretch.
Focus for Game 82:
Finish strong: There are two sides to the scoreboard watching coin. For the Raptors, winning the game could possibly offer a psychological edge and momentum to finish the season. But, without LeBron playing, how much gravitas can seriously be gained. On the other hand, if the Bucks do the unthinkable and hold a healthy lead nearing game end, should the Raptors oblige by taking their foot off the gas? There are those who opine it doesn’t matter when you face the Cavaliers – – whether it’s in the East semis or in the finals. But, my thinking is I’d rather face a Cav’s squad who’ve had to battle through two rounds of play as opposed to one who might very well sweep their first round opponent.
Extra Repetitions: Based on Casey’s post practice comments, we can expect to see the starters on the court at least for the first half. Lowry and company need to utilize this time to gain more minutes figuring out their timing and building momentum.
Health: The main goal of the squad should be to get everyone off the court healthy. To that end, let’s hope Casey doesn’t over extend any of the starters. Let the youngsters gain some valuable playing time and finish out the second half.
Per our as-of-yet-unreleased FATS calculator, the @cavs play like a 51.3-win team with LeBron, and a 26.2-win team without him. pic.twitter.com/K1vjauRujJ
— NBA Math (@NBA_Math) April 6, 2017
Lineups:
Although a good portion of the Cavaliers starting rotation may be out for rest the big news is the changes at the back end of Cleveland’s roster. Larry Sanders has been waived and Raptors 905 center Edy Tavares was inked to a multi year deal late Tuesday evening. Get the entire story via Blake’s article.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are planning to sign center Edy Tavares to a multiyear contract on Wednesday, league sources tell @TheVertical.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) April 12, 2017
RAPTORS STARTING 5:
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan
Small Forward: DeMarre Carroll
Power Forward: Serge Ibaka
Center:Jonas Valanciunas
RAPTORS RESERVES:
Point Guard: Cory Joseph, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
Shooting Guard: Norman Powell
Small Forward: P.J. Tucker
Power Forward: Patrick Patterson,
Center: Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
Notes: Assigned to Raptors 905: Bruno Caboclo, Pascal Siakam have been with the D-League Raptors 905 squad participating in the first round sweep. As per Blake, it’s unknown if they’ll remain with the squad or if Fred VanVleet will join them. The likelihood is VanVleet remains with the varsity squad given Casey’s comments on uncertainty of how long the starters will play.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daUzMnrdWhQ
CAVALIERS STARTING 5:
Point Guard: *(Kyrie Irving), Deron Williams,
Shooting Guard: J.R. Smith
Small Forward:*(LeBron James), Iman Shumpert
Power Forward: Kevin Love
Center: *(Tristan Thompson), Channing Frye
CAVALIERS RESERVES:
Point Guard: Kay Felder, Jordan McRae
Shooting Guard: Kyle Korver,
Small Forward: Richard Jefferson, DeAndre Liggins
Power Forward: James Jones
Center: Edy Tavares
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJMaU5TbZWU
Walking Wounded:
Raptors: none (and let’s keep it that way!)
Cavaliers:
- LeBron James will miss game to get additional rest (though some reports also list a calf injury)
- Kyrie Irving may also be held out for rest and to deal with a nagging knee injury
- Tristan Thompson (thumb) questionable
- Kay Felder (lower leg) game time decision
Game Specifics:
Recent History: The Cavaliers hold the all-time record 46-36. Cleveland lead the season series 3-0 and are 7-3 in the past ten games.
Referee Assignments: Ken Mauer (#41), Brian Forte(#45), and Kevin Scott (#28)
The Venue: Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, Ohio
The Tip: 8:00 PM EST
TV: TSN
Radio: TSN Radio 1050 Toronto
The Line (updated): The odds makers favor the Raptors by 3.5 points with an over-under of 206 points.
In Closing:
Although the Raptors want Lowry to get in some sets and shake off the rust odds are (fingers crossed) neither he or the starters will play extended minutes. Furthermore, don’t expect Casey or Lu to tip their hats in the last game of the season by showcasing something different given the hopes are these two teams will meet sometime this spring.
While the Raptors won’t match last season’s 56 win total, they enter their final game looking strong, healthy and deep. For a day one Raptors fan I’m more optimistic than I’ve ever been about the team and their post season chances. So, let’s get this game over with and bring on the Bucks!
Make sure to check back 75 minutes prior to game start for Blake’s News and Notes Game Updates.
Follow me on Twitter @TTOTambz and my facebook page Tamberlyn’s Tip-Off. When I’m not writing for Raptors Republic I’m passing my days as Editor for Thunderous Intentions as well as 16 Wins A Ring. My articles appear at both sites and coming soon, I’ll be relaunching my podcast at 16 Wins A Ring.
