Raptors-Bucks Series Preview: Outside perspectives

A little earlier, we went deep into the Toronto Raptors first-round matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks with our own writers, providing our perspective on the series. Then, we had a Q&A with a Bucks writer to get the alternate perspective on the series.

It can also be instructive to get perspectives from outside of the team-specific bubble. Those without a rooting (or writing) interest in the series have the benefit of more space, a balance of knowledge across both teams, and less potential bias. Getting their opinions can help further color the picture ahead of Game 1.

So we reached out to a handful of writers from around the league for their take on Raptors-Bucks, asking them two simple questions.

What is the biggest strength/opportunity for the Raptors in this series?

Michael Pina: They’re deeper, more potent, skilled enough to generate individual offense and possess unteachable qualities like continuity and playoff experience. Serge Ibaka and P.J. Tucker have really helped turn the defense around and Jonas Valanciunas will likely force Jason Kidd to start Greg Monroe before Thon Maker is killed.

James Herbert: If they’re patient and move the ball, the Raptors’ biggest strength — their elite offense — should be able to withstand the Bucks’ ultra-aggressive defensive style. Milwaukee is capable of disrupting teams and forcing turnovers, but if Toronto anticipates where the help is coming from, stays poised and uses the Bucks’ pressure against them, it will find open looks, especially from deep. It’s time to prove these dudes have learned from past playoff experiences.

Ian Levy: The Raptors are just so much deeper than the Bucks. There are some difficult matchups for them but they just have so many options to try and resolve those. Their defense has been terrific since the trade deadline and they have more than enough offensive firepower to survive. Giannis can put up enormous stat lines but the Raptors can focus on taking away Middleton and Brogdon and still feel confident about their chances.

Justin Rowan: The biggest strength for the Raptors in this series is depth. Unlike past versions of this team, the Raptors have versatility and the ability to effectively play multiple styles. This will allow Casey to have the ability to adjust throughout the series and make the appropriate adjustments.

What is the biggest strength/opportunity for the Bucks in this series?

Michael Pina: Milwaukee has enough length, versatility, and speed to ostensibly make life difficult for DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry. That’s a plus, but in the end it all comes down to Giannis Antetokounmpo potentially blossoming into the series’ best player. If he can take things over, dominate on both ends, and transform into a legitimate top-10 talent before our very eyes, Toronto will be in a little bit of trouble..

James Herbert: Milwaukee’s biggest strength is that it employs both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. P.J. Tucker can’t guard both of them at the same time, so the Raptors’ much-improved defense will be tested. On the other side, Antetokounmpo and Middleton are vital parts of Milwaukee’s defense, which is based on length, versatility and speed. The Bucks need to communicate and avoid fouling if they’re going to use all that to their advantage.

Ian Levy: Giannis. He’s a bear for any team to defend but he seems like a particularly bad matchup for the Raptors. Giannis averaged 25.0 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 7.1 assists per 36 minutes against Toronto in the regular season, shooting 58.8 percent from the field. He was at 23.2, 8.9, 5.8 and 52.1 percent, respectively against the rest of the league. He’s too long for Powell or DeRozan and too fast for Carroll or Tucker. In addition, the other wing matchups are tough for Toronto because Middleton and Brogdon have a size advantage on DeRozan and Lowry. But, as I mentioned above, there’s Joseph and Norman Powell and a variety of different ways to stagger their rotations and get creative solving these problems. If the Bucks make this competitive, it’s going to be because Giannis goes nuts. But even that may not be enough.

Justin Rowan: The biggest strength the Bucks have is length. They typically start games with four wings, which couldn’t cause a tremendous amount of trouble for Toronto’s starters. But despite this wing heavy look, they are still the team with more length and size.Toronto has the tools to counter these looks, but it may force them to adapt how they typically play.

Who takes the series, in how many games, and why?

Michael Pina: Toronto in 7. Lowry hasn’t even played 100 minutes with Ibaka and Tucker, and reintegrating him into the mix this close to a playoff series that whispers a few parallels between last year’s first-round battle against the Indiana Pacers is concerning. But the Bucks don’t have enough experience on the whole. Antetokounmpo will have to be the best player in the series and Khris Middleton can’t take his foot off the gas for a second.

James Herbert: Raptors in six because they’re the much deeper, more balanced team now that Tucker and Serge Ibaka are around.

Ian Levy: Bucks in 6. (Just kidding). Raptors in 6.

Justin Rowan: Raptors in six games. I think the first 2-3 games of this series might be rough. But I believe in Casey’s ability to make adjustments and ultimately the deeper and more talented roster will win.

Other outside opinions

FiveThirtyEight gives the Raptors a 78-percent chance to win the series and a five-percent chance to win the title.

ESPN’s Kevin Pelton ranks Milwaukee-Toronto as the third least likely series to result in an upset, pegging the Raptors with an 87-percent chance to win the series.

Basketball Reference gives the Raptors a 5.5-percent chance to win the title and a 30.6-percent chance to win the conference.

Bovada has the Raptors as +3300 to win the championship, sixth among all teams. They also have the Raptors at -400 for the first round win. Westgate Superbook has the Raptors at 40-to-1 for the title, which ranks eighth. The Raptors rank sixth in something called the Vegas Power Rankings at ESPN, just behind Cleveland.

Covers is projecting a Raptors -7 opening line for Game 1.

I don’t think I’ve come across a single expert picking Milwaukee.