Against the Bucks, the Raptors’ starting lineup struggled to open the series. This isn’t some big secret, and shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone. Toronto was two missed, wide open 3s in game 2 away from going down 3-0 against Milwaukee, and then Casey made the adjustment of making Norman Powell a starter, the change which spurred the Raptors to win the next three games and capture the series, setting up the second round matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers. It was a great adjustment, and full credit to both Casey for making it and Norman Powell for his play which spurred the team on to those wins. After monday night’s rough loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers, it’s clear that if the struggles continue for the team, that adjustment is probably coming in this series too. After all, the Cavaliers dominated the minutes played by starters, and with DeMar DeRozan a -32 in 35 minutes and Jonas Valanciunas -21 in 21 minutes, those players need to be put in a better position to succeed.
The next change for the Raptors is a complicated one, because the solutions to this Cavaliers team aren’t immediately obvious. The problems are much easier though to identify, although there are many of them. DeMarre Carroll didn’t provide much offensively and clearly can’t keep up with LeBron James defensively, leading to questions of what his value is in this series. Patrick Patterson struggled on both ends of the floor, but most notably on offense, where he couldn’t find his stroke on frequent wide open attempts when the team needed scoring. Cory Joseph hasn’t looked himself, and the two-point guard lineups with Kyle are a complicated proposition in this series anyways, because of how big Cleveland can run while still maintaining quickness.
Jonas Valanciunas was a big problem, too slow-footed to protect the rim, and his inability to post up against Kevin Love is both puzzling and frustrating. If Valanciunas can’t score against Love, his value has to be questioned in this series. You can’t bring him off the bench, because he’s not quick enough to guard Channing Frye and you run the risk of having Frye feast on wide open 3-point attempts in that matchup, which begs the question of what JV’s role is in this series if he can’t compete against the starters and can’t play against the Cavaliers’ bench.
DeMar DeRozan was unable to bring his usual offensive game, and although the line isn’t terrible with 19 points on 16 shots, that simply isn’t enough for this matchup, even ignoring his defensive impact in the same way he ignored playing defense. DeRozan had the 5th highest points-per-game in the league this season, and he needs to be that scorer, needs to find a way to break through the traps and score. At the same time, and I know he’s not a player known for his defensive effort, but this Cavaliers team simply has too many weapons for the Raptors to not have all five players working as a unit defensively. It’s not about being a good defender against this team as much as it’s about being there for your teammates and helping when it’s necessary, and DeMar simply wasn’t making those rotations in game 1, leading to a lot of defensive problems when he was on the court.
The same applies to Kyle Lowry, who might’ve been the best Raptor and led the bench units that had Toronto’s runs in this game, but when he’s matched up with Kyrie Irving, an explosive scorer and lackluster defender, Kyle needs to do more. Maybe it’s not fair to ask Kyle and DeMar to be dominant scorers, distributors and hold their own defensively, but with the offensive systems the Raptors have, that’s what they are tasked with, and neither one of them brought what was needed in this game, as Kyrie equaled Kyle’s output.
With that many problems, the next move is a hard one to figure out. Start Norman Powell in place of Valanciunas, and you’re left with the unpalatable options of DeMar or Norm guarding either Kevin Love or LeBron, where they both would give up a lot of size and strength and run serious risks of being overrun quickly. If you, as I had preferred in both series, start the lineup with a PJ Tucker, Patrick Patterson and Serge Ibaka front court, you have a much emptier bench and those dangerous Kyle and the bench minutes are much less threatening.
That being said, I picked the Raptors to win this series, and still believe the talent is there. The Raptors certainly need guys to step up, and I would definitely say that the starting lineup with both DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas in it won’t work against Cleveland, a perimeter defender who struggles to keep guys in front of him with a center who can’t defend the paint is a recipe for disaster against an offense this potent. Maybe the answers lie in opening up the rotation, despite their inexperience both Delon Wright and Jakob Poeltl have impressed when used in the playoffs. With Poeltl there is always the legitimate concern of foul trouble, given that he frequently got a very unfriendly whistle during the regular season, but he might be worth that risk as a quicker option at center when Serge Ibaka is out of the game. Poeltl is a similar player to Valanciunas in many ways, but he has shown better footwork and defensive instincts, and maybe that makes him worth the risks. Wright gives the Raptors another option beside Kyle Lowry who can run the offense, and as a longer point guard he doesn’t create quite as many defensive mismatches if used in two point guard sets.
But really, what that adjustment will be will be a question asked frequently over the coming days, especially should the Raptors run out the same group and drop game two. The more important question though isn’t what the adjustment is, but when it comes, because even just one game into the series it’s hard not to feel like the pressure is heavily on the Raptors. This isn’t an inexperienced Milwaukee Bucks team that will get flustered when confronted with something they weren’t initially prepared for, this is the defending champions with one of the two best players of all-time. Expecting that you can drop two or three games early in the series while you’re trying to find the adjustment necessary to even the playing field probably isn’t an option here. That adjustment needs to be found quickly, because if Toronto drops game two, they find themselves needing to win three of the next four games against LeBron James, just to get to a game seven in Cleveland.
