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On Valentine’s Day 2017, I remember when I was at work. I was just going through a usual day, and making Valentine’s plans last minute like every other guy out there. With the NBA trade deadline approaching, I was obviously tuned to my phone for updates, but in a brief break where I wasn’t aware of what was going on, a huge trade had materialized. Serge Ibaka was on his way to TO.
I was a bit stunned when I saw that notification, not only with happiness, but because I was genuinely in a state of shock. Masai Ujiri has made a name for himself in Toronto as a GM. A shrewd propagator of patience, development and building internally, Masai Ujiri had always marketed himself as “not a trade-deadline type of guy.” I mean, if you draft well, develop well, and sign guys appropriately in the off-season, sure…who needs trades. But the way things were going mid-season last year, it was about time the Raptors did something – and Ujiri took notice.
Shipping Terrence Ross and a first-round pick didn’t seem pricey at all for a power-forward that was a clear upgrade from Patrick Patterson; Ibaka was a rangy defender, and someone who can knock down 3’s. Regardless of how this was all going to turn out, at that moment, I know we would’ve all thought “where do I sign?” when the prospect of that deal first surfaced. So for that alone, you had to love Masai’s ability to identify the issue with the Raptors (a desperate need for a starting caliber power-forward), his adaptability from the usual tactic of patience, and whatever you want to say, this was probably one of the best trades in franchise history (from a talent-acquisition perspective) since maybe when the Raptors picked up Jalen Rose and Donyell Marshall from the Chicago Bulls back in 2003, both in the twilight of their careers with some ball left in the tank.
In his very first sequence making an impact after being acquired, against the hated Celtics at home post all-star break, Ibaka blocked an Isaiah Thomas shot emphatically and capped it off with a smooth transition jumper on the other end. It was like (pardon the pun) watching magic unfold on the court.
But in the back of our minds, we knew this guy would probably regress to something normal, and he did. Given a green light on offense, Ibaka was often a black-hole and had a quick-trigger, making him a volume outside shooter. This was both good and bad – bad when he’d miss, but good when the space offered could be used as an offensive tactic.
STRETCHING BEYOND THE ARC
Since the 2013-14 season, Ibaka’s fifth year in the league, we’ve seen a remarkable increase in the amount of 3’s taken – both in terms of volume, and as a percentage of his overall shots.
2013-2014 season (with Thunder)
2014-2015 season (with Thunder)
2015-2016 season (with Thunder)
2016-2017 season (with Magic/Raptors)
By 2016-2017, 3-pointers accounted for more than 32% of Ibaka’s offensive attempts, and he shot it at a 39% clip (124/318 on the season). He’s a stand-still shooter that takes a bit of time to gather and release, making him an ideal pick-and-pop shooter in Lowry or DeRozan screen scenarios. He was also the beneficiary of passes in the “swing-and-find” plays where an initial hockey assist leads to an open shooter on the next pass. I love Ibaka’s shot when it comes off of that kind of ball movement, but I don’t really want to see those long-range attempts off the dribble or from too deep.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=886LdTym9E8
His other “sweet spots” on the court last year were at-the-rim (73% from this area, for obvious reasons) and from mid-range, between 16-feet and the three-point line (49% from this area).
In Dwane Casey’s new three-point-oriented system (at least in theory), we should see a lot more attempts this year for Ibaka, but don’t be surprised if we see similar, or even slightly worse percentages from long-range (maybe 36% – 38%). I’d expect a drop-off in attempts of those mid-range 2’s this year, in favour of shots going toward or at the rim.
As the third-option in the Raptors offense, Ibaka’s consistency will be key in keeping the Raptors in the top-5 in the league on that side of the floor. We’ve seen all-time levels of offense from this team before, so if Serge can keep things up, I won’t at all be worried about our offense…dare I say, even in the playoffs.
DEFENSE
In the immediate month after the trade that brought over Ibaka and PJ Tucker (who also deserves credit), the Raptors shaved nearly 5.0 points from their defensive rating, going from 106.4 points-per-100-possessions in February to around 101.7 in the month of March. About 50% of that credit had to go to Serge’s presence, who’s rangy defensive abilities, combined with his rim-protection offered a fresh look that confused some offenses.
I like the look of Ibaka at the 5 in certain situations (to close games especially), where the Raptors can offer a more versatile look defensively, that can stretch the floor offensively. That would require CJ Miles to slide down to the 4 most likely, leaving questions as to whether the Raptors can naturally fit that with that lineup, as a loss of size has gone on to hurt Toronto in similar situations in the past. There are still some questions there that need to be answered, but I’m confident that lineup can figure itself out by season’s end.
Ibaka’s defensive rebounding will be key, especially if the Raptors plan on playing small-ball. He averaged a total of 6.8 rebounds per game last year, with 5.5 of those boards coming on the defensive end. That won’t be nearly enough if the Raptors hope to play Ibaka at the 5. Granted most of those numbers were with him at the 4, alongside a more rebound-prone big-man playing at the 5. But I still need to see better numbers from Ibaka on the boards – and I think in the situations where it’ll be needed with him at the 5, I’ll be confident that there’s a great chance we will see it.
LOOKAHEAD AND SEASON PROJECTION
I’ve got Serge having a good year this year, but with some caveats. Namely, I think his three-point shooting percentages will see a dip, and we could see further regression on the defensive end (at least in terms of blocks and at-rim presence) as Ibaka attempts to cover more of the floor in a more spaced, and hopefully “switchy” defense.
Having said that, I expect Serge to earn his paycheck’s worth this year. The dude probably won’t be an all-star, but if there was a tier just below all-star, to me, he falls in that category. Let’s go with a projected stat line of about 15 and 7, with just over a block a game. One thing is for sure though – with the increase in 3-point shooting volume I definitely see coming, if he can sustain solid three-point shooting close to 40% or above, the sky will be the limit for the Raptors’ offense.
All stats sourced from basketballreference.com
