Right when the Toronto Raptors look like they have an opening, they get in their own way some. It happened earlier in the year when they momentarily had the best record in the Eastern Conference, and it happened again Sunday when they were on the brink of catching the Boston Celtics once again, only to drop a tough but winnable game to the Utah Jazz. They remain in good shape. They’re just a game and a half back of Boston, they’re armed with a fringe MVP candidate, and while Boston was losing to Golden State a night ago, the Raptors draw a Los Angeles Lakers opponent down their star rookie.
All told, the Raptors are in a good position to make noise in the East, Sunday’s game part of a stretch of seven of eight at home. Oddsmakers have started to come around, too, as the Raptors are down to “just” +500 to come out of the Eastern Conference. For most of the year, those odds have been longer, but a weakened Cleveland Cavaliers outfit and some strong underlying metrics for the Raptors have apparently built some line momentum.
Taking care of business in games like Sunday’s against the Lakers will help their case, as will continuing to ascend the East table. The Lakers are hardly a joke, though. They’re 19-29, sure, but they’ve also won eight of their last 10, thanks in large part to a defense that now ranks 13th in the NBA. They also play at the league’s fastest pace, speeding opponents up and trying to make them play with the type of youthful exuberance most of L.A.’s roster plays with. Toronto can play that game, and in fact has embraced it more this year, and the Lakers don’t have any other glaring strength other than offensive rebounding. If the Raptors can match energy, on occasional struggle early in games, and take care of their own glass, likewise a consistent struggle, they can control this one from tip-off.
The game tips off at 6 on TSN 4/5 and TSN 1050.
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To help set the stage, we reached out to Darius Soriano of Forum Blue & Gold.
Blake Murphy: Obviously, all Lakers discussion begins with Lonzo Ball, even though he may not play here due to a shoulder injury. What has he shown since we last talked early in the year? Are you confident his scoring can catch up to the preternatural passing ability? Are the early defensive metrics actually encouraging, or is that noise?
Darius Soriano: As the year has progressed, I think Lonzo’s started to get more comfortable with the league and, in general, find how to apply the tempo he wanted to play with from a team standpoint and apply that to his individual game. There’s that old John Wooden saying to “be quick, but don’t hurry” and I think Lonzo was doing both early in the year, but as time has passed the hurrying has become less frequent. This showed up in his jumper as he started to rediscover the more “quiet” lower body he needed to be on balance and take his jumper in rhythm. That translated to better success on that shot and, subsequently, more confidence. Ultimately, I do think his scoring will stabilize and he’ll prove to be enough of a threat as a shot-maker to leverage his passing ability.
In terms of his defense, I think those metrics are for real. He’s showing that his high basketball IQ doesn’t just apply to offense, but to the other end of the floor too. He’s smart about his positioning, understands angles, and knows how to leverage his quickness and (underrated) athleticism by combining those with really good instincts. He needs to get stronger and can gamble a hair too much at times, but he has a knack for playing well in chaotic defensive possessions and I think he does a good job of helping to create those situations by jumping passing lanes and by looking for opportunistic double teams. He’s really surprised me with how good he’s played on defense.
Blake Murphy: LaVar Ball is now an assistant coach in Lithuania. How long until he’s elbowing our boy Jesse Mermuys for a front-seat bench position?
Darius Soriano: Uh…I hope the answer is never. Haha. I’m glad he seems to be enjoying his time abroad, though!
Blake Murphy: Kyle Kuzma has come down to earth a bit but remains one of the season’s most fun surprises. Between the two sides here, that’s three big contributors from Utah in the last three drafts. Fight you for Justin Bibbins as an undrafted free agent this summer? 5-foot-8 and 150 pounds are just numbers, Darius.
Darius Soriano: Maybe we can rock, paper, scissors to decide. Seriously, though, Kuzma’s shooting has regressed, but he’s started to find his stride again in recent games. He poured in 17 4th quarter points lead the Lakers to a win over the Celtics before this road trip and while he didn’t play well against the Bulls, I think he’s still proving to be a real threat offensively. Still needs to work on his defense and there will be times where Luke Walton goes away from him if his shot selection skews too far in the gunner direction and/or if his defense isn’t up to par. But he’s still just a rookie, so I’m thrilled with where he’s at.
Blake Murphy: Tyler Ennis’ role has been up and down a bit with Josh Hart, Alex Caruso, and even Gary Payton around competing for guard minutes. Is that experiment pretty much done for L.A.? He always teases me looking good with his dribble and passing well, and he’s even taken a jump as a rebounder, but he still can’t score from anywhere on the floor. I don’t want to let this go.
Darius Soriano: I prefer Caruso to Ennis at this point, but as long as Lonzo is out Ennis is going to have to play. Ennis’ biggest problem this year has been his poor shooting and how that’s led to him turning down open 3’s. Last season he hit 38.9% of his 3’s on 2.5 attempts per game (54 attempts total) after being traded to the Lakers. This year, in 28 games (but 74 fewer minutes) he’s shooting 17.9% on 3’s and his attempts are down to 1 a game. If he cannot stretch the floor or use the threat of his jumper to open up passing angles and driving lanes, his utility decreases exponentially and he becomes unplayable — especially at his size.
Blake Murphy: It’s the second of six OVO Nights for the Raptors here. Thoughts on the two new Drake tracks?
Darius Soriano: I’m feeling those joints. I thought he delivered lyrically on Diplomatic Immunity and God’s Plan was a one of those classic Drake tracks that everyone will just vibe to, especially when the weather gets better and you can ride to it with the windows down.
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Raptors updates
The Raptors don’t have many rotation questions right now. Or rather, they do, but they’re minor. When will there be small windows for Norman Powell to try to get going again? Why is Fred VanVleet, a nice piece, sometimes ahead of Delon Wright, the team’s best bench player of late? Why isn’t Lucas Nogueira factoring in on nights Jakob Poeltl struggles? Related: Why is Lucas Nogueira incapable of playing well in garbage time? None of these are pressing. The Raptors have a 10-man rotation they like and two additional pieces they can elbow out room for or use for a spark. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are playing reasonable minutes. Serge Ibaka looks spry when properly rested. Frustrating though a game like Friday was – how do you shoot 16 of 47 on uncontested shots, exactly? – there aren’t enormous wrinkles to figure out.
Except their performance in the clutch on offense, something I wrote about in detail yesterday and Dwane Casey later addressed at practice.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Delon Wright, Fred VanVleet
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: OG Anunoby, C.J. Miles
PF: Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, Alfonzo McKinnie
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
OUT: None
TBD: None
905: Bruno Caboclo, Lorenzo Brown, Malcolm Miller
Lakers updates
Lonzo Ball is dealing with an MCL sprain and won’t play here. He was originally only doubtful, but news came down Saturday about the nature of his injury, and the Lakers don’t expect him back for a little while longer now. That means more time for Tyler Ennis and Alex Caruso, a fun point guard duo at a major matchup disadvantage here. Ennis does some things well, and I’m hesitant to give up on him, and Caruso was a major Summer League story. They’ll continue to be tested in expanded roles, though, and probably cede some ball-handling duty to the Lakers’ stable of intriguing, multi-position wings (seriously, Ennis and Brook Lopez are the only guys on this team who can only play one position).
The Lakers hitting their stride largely without Ball isn’t necessarily an argument against his play, by the way. The Lakers have been outscored by 1.2 points per-100 possessions with Ball on the floor and by 4.7 points per-1200 possessions with him off of it. Without him, their most commonly used lineup is a fun, position-less fivesome that’s a minus-1.7 in 113 minutes. They do have a couple of moderate-usage non-Ball lineups that have produced positive results, too, especially of late. The projected starters are among them, with a plus-8 net rating in 41 minutes. In other words, Luke Walton has some options, and his complete disregard for the five traditional positions opens up a lot for L.A., in lineup construction and style of play.
PG: Tyler Ennis, Alex Caruso, Gary Payton II
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jordan Clarkson
SF: Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Corey Brewer, Luol Deng
PF: Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma, Nigel Hayes
C: Brook Lopez, Larry Nance
OUT: Lonzo Ball
TBD: None
South Bay: Ivica Zubac, Thomas Bryant
The line
The Raptors are 9.5-point favorites with a 218 over-under.
