The Toronto Raptors had won a Game 1 just once before, way back in the Vince Carter days. They’d never done so at home. Defeating the Washington Wizards on Saturday in that exact situation was a weight off for the team, and it also served to put them in an unfamiliar situation: They’re in control of the series after a game. The Raptors, obviously, have never led a series 2-0 before, and after years of playing from behind and thriving as an underdog, they have their first real chance to dictate a series on their terms. Win Game 2 on Tuesday, and a comfort level might settle in where the Raptors can fully trust who they are and how they’ve gotten to this point. Lose, and, well, it’s not much different than dropping a Game 1 and rebounding in Game 2.
In trying to take control of the series, the Raptors are once again treating Game 2 with a sense of reserved urgency. It’s a Game 7, and all of that. Mostly, the Raptors know the Wizards are going to come back not only with adjustments from a tactical perspective but also with the desperation of a team down 0-1, a desperation with which the Raptors are intimately familiar.
“Like I told our guys, tomorrow night’s game is going to be one of the toughest we’ve played, just because of the fact we knew how we felt losing Game 1, how desperate we come out after Game 1, and they’re going to be no different,” head coach Dwane Casey said at practice Monday. “They’re a talented team, well-coached team, they’re not your typical eight seed, and they’re going to come out breathing fire. And we’ve got to do the same, we’ve got to come in protect home, we’ve done it all year, and we’ve got to do it with a sense of urgency and a toughness it’s going to take to win Game 2, after going up 1-0. As we know, we haven’t been in this position very much, so we’ve just got to go back on how we felt in Game 2 after losing Game 1.”
Having another game at the Air Canada Centre should help. The Raptors were the best home team in basketball this year, and even if the ACC didn’t feel quite at its playoff peak until late in Game 1, it was enough to cause the Wizards some disruption on the defensive end, according to a few of their players. The crowd should be fired up again here after heel of the sench Eric Koreen suggested Leafs fans were louder. Prove ’em, and all of that.
The game tips off at 7 on NBA TV and TSN on TV and on TSN 1050 on radio.
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To help recalibrate the series and gain some Washington perspective, we traded questions with Kyle Weidie of Truth About It.
Blake Murphy: Well, that was a fun Game 1! It’s obviously nice for the Raptors to get the Game 1 narrative out of the way, but that game was close enough on multiple fronts that I could see both sides taking positives from it. How was the feeling on the Washington side?
Kyle Weidie: Fun is relative! I’m glad the Wizards made it a game after a quite disjointed start. Washington is just full of angst no matter what — from the hand-wringing at Ernie Grunfeld’s roster moves (the Wiz field four backup point guards, have you heard?) to the fact the Capitals have dropped two home overtime losses to open the NHL playoffs. Despite the Wizards having their moments in the Air Canada Centre, despite it all, it was not at all encouraging that the game came down to turnovers (many of the careless variety) and poor rotations on 3-point shooters that were consistent throughout the match (and much of it seems to be a personnel problem on Washington’s part).
Blake Murphy: The Raptors hit a franchise-record 16 threes and dished 26 assists, largely making the right decisions against the Wizards’ traps and corrals in the pick-and-roll. Would Scott Brooks deviate from this base defense at all if the Raptors’ role players keep performing, or will he continue to bet the non-DeRozan, non-Lowry members of the team can’t beat them in the long run?
Kyle Weidie: Something needs to be tweaked, for sure. No one expects Delon Wright to rain 3s all series, but the Wizards have been leaving CJ Miles open since he was with the Pacers. It will be interesting to see what Scott Brooks does in Game 2, particularly with Markieff Morris and Otto Porter potentially hobbled (two strong and versatile but not stellar defenders), but even more particularly (and often peculiarly), what he does with the men in the middle. Each Marcin Gortat and Ian Mahinmi got into early foul trouble. Mahinmi, the better defender but a net-negative on offense, was never heard from again, and Gortat played a serviceable but flaw-ridden game.
Blake Murphy: Brooks mentioned after the game that he thought he extended Bradley Beal a little too long at 41 minutes. He also conceded that he’s worried about minutes with neither Beal nor John Wall on the floor. Is there a comfortable answer there, staggering sub-40 minutes nights for both while still playing them enough together to combat Toronto’s starters?
Kyle Weidie: Brooks has had issues with being able to stagger the playing time of his two star guards since day one on the job. Part of it is his lacking creativity — in his general play-calling but also in his outright refusal to play Tomas Satoransky at point earlier in the season. The emergence of Sato has helped bolster the backcourt, and the pairing of Wall with Satoransky off the ball (which isn’t always ideal for Sato’s strengths) late in the first quarter helped open some lanes for Wall to create (and for the Wizards pull back into the game). But a comfortable answer, I’m afraid, is not an option with such an uncomfortable conversation as to why the Wizards have Tim Frazier, Ramon Sessions, and now Ty Lawson on the roster when Wall and Satoransky are the best two point guards.
Blake Murphy: Wall struggled finishing at the rim in Game 1, especially in transition. With him still working his way back, how bag are these multiple two-game breaks early in the series?
Kyle Weidie: Rest is huge for Wall. He doesn’t need fewer days off to get his timing right. In Game 1 Wall was seemingly too worried about drawing a whistle on his drives to the basket, something that was much more prevalent earlier in his career. Now instead of doing it to earn free throws, I’m afraid Wall is doing it just to prove a point and to force the issue. Just protect the ball, aim true, and let the rest happen please.
Blake Murphy: Given all the chatter there’s been about the Wizards’ chemistry and potentially fragile locker room, is there any concern a 2-0 deficit in the series may see them fracture further? How much urgency is there here, even early in the series?
Kyle Weidie: A 2-0 deficit probably won’t fracture the Wizards any further, but it would continue to magnify the pre-existing warts. Mahinmi is a disaster, Gortat is pretty much washed, Oubre flatlined a bit this season, and for whatever baffling reason, Jodie Meeks was the only two backup 2-guard the team planned to sign this whole season. There is a ton of urgency when it comes to the fans, and no doubt that John Wall and Bradley Beal would rather win ASAP (at least getting past the second round would be nice). But you don’t exactly get the same sense from ownership — Grunfeld has been in place since 2004 and Ted Leonsis is happy getting the bare-minimum of what he asks for: be relevant, make playoffs, large tax penalties. Long story, short, if they lose this series, the Wizards need to take a long, hard look in the mirror, but that likely doesn’t mean they’ll part ways with any of their three max players, their coach with three seasons left on his contract, and their team-president-for-life.
Kyle Weidie: Toronto broke the streak of losing 10 playoff Game 1s in a row — congrats! But what scared you most about Saturday afternoon’s matchup?
Blake Murphy: Probably that the Raptors needed a franchise-record 16 threes to get there and still only won by eight, despite John Wall struggling at the rim in transition late. You can’t point to a few different areas where the margins were so thin that, had something broke differently or variance swung the other way, Toronto ends up on the wrong side of that one. At the same time, they also did enough things poorly (they had a lot of uncharacteristic turnovers for a generally ball-assured team) that you can make the case they’ll be better in other areas to make up for shooting regression, but this was hardly a resounding victory on tactical terms. The Raptors need to sharpen up how they try to contain Wall without letting Morris and Scott stick open jumpers and post up against guards, and they really, really have to not feed Wall a head of steam with sloppy passing. Easier said than done, I realize.
Kyle Weidie: Why was Toronto’s pick-and-roll so effective early in the game and what did that allow for later?
Blake Murphy: Lowry and DeRozan have spent a year getting better against the sort of traps and corrals Washington likes to use. Not long ago, sending two to the ball when DeRozan ran a side pick-and-roll was death for the Raptors offense. Now, he has a more keen sense of space and timing, and all of the team’s bigs have improved as playmakers in those 4-on-3s that result. Toronto also had some success getting the Wizards’ defense moving by swinging from pick-and-roll or hand-off on one side of the floor to pick-and-roll or hand-off on the other. You saw the results in the third – Washington sent less help at DeRozan for a few minutes (guarding him similar to how Toronto treated Wall pick-and-rolls), and he was able to stick a pair of pull-up jumpers against Gortat’s drop-backs and Euro-step into the paint when he got one-on-one with Porter. It will be interesting to see where DeRozan looks to attack Tuesday – Kobe Bryant’s latest Detail episode at ESPN pointed out a few holes he might be able to exploit if Washington over-adjusts.
Kyle Weidie: What are your general thoughts on the referees and how they called / managed the game?
Blake Murphy: In general, I don’t concern myself too much with the referees. I’m a believer in Hanlon’s Razor and think the best we can hope for is consistency. In that regard, I think the officiating was fine, though the sudden league-wide emphasis on eliminating moving screens this late in the season is bizarre. There were a few moments (the missed goaltending, the Scott shot taken away, a late and fairly obvious missed and-one for Wall) where you scratch your head, but I’d guess 16 teams had moments like that in their Game 1s. I know Wizards fans thought it went further against them than Toronto. Rest assured, Raptors fans in our comments/mentions disagree. Always.
Kyle Weidie: For the Raps to counter Washington’s counter in Game 2, [BLANK] needs to happen.
Blake Murphy: Bigs continuing to step up. I think the big thing is still how Lowry and DeRozan handle traps and, to the same extent, how the team’s bigs handle the extra opportunity. Serge Ibaka played maybe his best game as a Raptor in Game 1, and it’s pretty clear that his ability to stick those pick-and-pop jumpers or attack for floaters is going to be crucial here. He’s not crazy consistent in those regards, nor is Jonas Valanciunas as a passer (and Jakob Poeltl was unusually shaky on offense Saturday). My guess is that Washington is going to shake up the type of blitzes they send toward ball-handlers – I don’t think they’re going to abandon that strategy – and maybe just alter how they pick guys up beneath the trap, and the bigs will have to be ready to make the requisite dump-offs and kick-outs. Defensively, I don’t think the Raptors are going to change a ton. They liked what they eventually did on Beal and don’t want to send extra help at Wall, even if he gets going.
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Raptors updates
After missing Game 1 with a bruised right shoulder, Fred VanVleet is still being listed as questionable here. He slowly progressed throughout the week and went through the majority of practice on Monday, but with the injury coming to his shooting arm and the Wizards employing some very tough screen-setters, the Raptors are going to play it cautiously. In Game 1, VanVleet’s minutes were spread to Norman Powell, Kyle Lowry, and Delon Wright, and that would probably be the case once again here – the all-bench unit with Powell wasn’t particularly effective, but the Raptors don’t want to task Lowry with going deep into the 40s for minutes if they can manage (Lowry even mentioned that VanVleet returning will allow him to not play the entire fourth next time out, though he absolutely should if the game is tight).
The only other question is what Dwane Casey does with the backup center spot. Lucas Nogueira stepped in for Jakob Poeltl in the fourth quarter of Game 1 and it worked incredibly well. Nogueira with Lowry is almost always a tremendous pairing, and Nogueira’s passing and rim protection fit Washington’s style at both ends. Still, Poeltl has been ahead of him for most of the year and there’s a sense that Nogueira is effective primarily as a change-of-pace look (strong disagree here), so it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see Poeltl maintain the backup slot and Nogueira only get called on as needed.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Delon Wright, Lorenzo Brown
SG: DeMar DeRozan, Norman Powell
SF: OG Anunoby, C.J. Miles
PF: Serge Ibaka, Pascal Siakam, Alfonzo McKinnie
C: Jonas Valanciunas, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira
TBD:Â Fred VanVleet
OUT:Â None
INACTIVE: Malachi Richardson
Wizards updates
There’s nothing different for Washington here – Markieff Morris and Otto Porter aren’t on the injury report despite being banged up, Mike Scott passed out of the concussion protocol before Game 1, and Jodie Meeks remains suspended for the entirety of the series and more. Scott Brooks mentioned trying to find a way to avoid minutes with both John Wall and Bradley Beal on the bench, but he also suggested that 41 minutes for Beal was too many (he played the entire second half). How he’ll juggle that is unclear. The Wizards probably figure to stagger those minutes a little more, maybe extending Wall’s first-quarter stretch toward the end of the frame and bringing Beal back in at the top of the second rather than going for four minutes with neither.
Brooks really only used three players off the bench in Game 1 (five played but Ian Mahinmi and Tim Frazier were only in briefly), and getting an extra body into the rotation would help alleviate some of the minutes load while also highlighting Toronto’s significant depth advantage. It’s a tough balancing act with such a thin roster.
PG: John Wall, Tomas Satoransky, Tim Frazier, Ty Lawson
SG: Bradley Beal
SF: Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre
PF:Â Markieff Morris, Mike Scott, Jason Smith
C: Marcin Gortat, Ian Mahinmi
TBD: None
OUT: Jodie Meeks
INACTIVE: Ramon Sessions, Chris McCullough
The line
Game 1:Â Raptors -8 (Series Raptors -630) (Raptors 114, Wizards 106)
Game 2: Raptors -6.5
Series: Raptors -800 (implied probability of 88.9 percent)
The Raptors are 6.5-point favorites with a 215 over-under. It’s interesting that the line’s a little smaller this time around after eight points in Game 1 was spot on, and that would seem to be a slight nod to how tight the game was before the final score and how two days off may have helped Wall. The over-under suggests a lighter-scoring game than last time out, and the Wizards have under-shot the over-under fairly often this year (37-44-2).
