It says a lot about where the Raptors come from, and the terrible moments of playoffs past, that a 2-2 first round series feels so crushingly disappointing.
Or perhaps that’s just me?
The last two games impacted me. My wife even commented a full 24 hours after each game that I still wasn’t myself. Which feels at least mildly pathetic to admit (and likely is…), but it’s true, the Raptors losing impacted my entire demeanor long after the games ended. Even as I write this and think ahead to game 5, I’m still stuck with that sunken feeling in my stomach.
I guess this is just the risk of fandom with higher expectations involved.
Much of the conversation over the last few days has been about what the Raptors can do to once again take control over a series that currently feels like it’s slipping away. Too soothe my currently broken spirit though, rather than concentrating on what can be improved I’ve decided to take a look at what simply needs to be maintained. What is it that the Raptors’ can currently hang their hat on?
1) Winning the Starting Battle
Entering the series much of the conversation was about the Raptors depth and the annual tradition of the Wizards having so little available on their bench. The expectation is that the starters would play near a wash, with the Raptors’ taking control based on their bench production.
Oh, how the turntables turn, as the exact opposite has happened.
The good news though is that the Raptors’ starters have more than won their battle against the Wizards starters. Lowry, DeRozan, OG, Ibaka, and Valanciunas have a Net Rating of +12.1 through four games, good for the 5th best such rating of all lineups with at least 35 minutes together.
Inversely, the Wizards starters have a negative Net Rating of -9.
2) Rook Not Scared
OG may not be the best player on the team, but through four games he has likely been their most consistent when it comes to success in their defined role. The stage has not been in any way too big for the rookie, who continues to raise hopes as to what his ceiling might become.
He has the second best offensive rating on the team behind only Jonas, while having the highest Effective Field Goal Percentage (77.5 percent) and True Shooting Percentage (80.2 percent).
Hit open shots, find lanes to cut for easy buckets, and move the ball quickly and decisively. That’s all he has to do on offence, but he’s doing it to near perfection through four games.
On the other end he has guarded Beal admirably for the most part, and has also switched on to almost every Wizard on the floor. Washington actively seeks ways to get OG off of their best scorers, and that lone is a victory in its own right.
I am a self-confessed OG fanboy, but no one can argue that he hasn’t been a hugely impactful player in his 22 minutes a game. I’d love to see his minutes increase moving forward.
3) Ibaka…in Games 1 and 2
We saw the fully engaged Ibaka in games 1 and 2, and the player who deserves every dollar of the salary the Raptors gave him last summer. It was sadly a much different story in games 3 and 4 though. Just look at a few basic statistics on Ibaka between the team’s wins and losses in the playoffs:
Right away you can see a few key statistics jump out, most notably his shot attempts and turnovers. In games 3 and 4 Ibaka was hesitant, shied away from shooting, and was indecisive with the ball leading to more turnovers.
I’m choosing to believe though that Game 1 and 2 Ibaka is still in there somewhere. The Raptors need him to be aggressive and to take the shots when they are available. Toronto needs more than 1.5 three point attempts from Ibaka.
