The Houston Rockets are the singularly most unique team in the NBA right now. The Golden State Warriors created an offensive blueprint that most teams in the NBA are trying to mimic, including the Toronto Raptors. Shoot freely, pass purposefully, screen randomly, cut willingly, and improvise. You can’t stop someone if they don’t even know what’s about to happen, and all that.
The Houston Rockets went the other direction. Everyone knows what’s about to happen. James Harden is in the middle of one of the most impressive streaks in NBA history. He hasn’t scored fewer than 30 points since December 11 (when he hit 29), and he’s coming off of a 61 point game in the Garden. His 36.3 points per game average would rank as the highest since Michael Jordan in 1986-87. Even more impressive is that Harden is erupting on this scoring rampage playing in one of the most predictable ways imaginable.
Teams know what’s about to happen. Harden still dares opponents to stop him.
Most three-point shots are taken after the catch. That’s how players find themselves open. Harden is not that. Of his 13 triples launched per game, 12.3 are pull-ups, and he’s shooting a wild 37.8 percent on such looks. Harden scores so without passing or receiving a screen that he has scored from isolation more than any other basketball team in the NBA, according to numbers gathered by 538’s Chris Herring. If you overplay the shot, Harden is elite at baiting fouls or driving. On the drive, he is a fantastic finisher and passer, though Clint Capela’s injury has dulled the threat of Harden’s lob passes, somewhat. Still, Harden has the tools to dissect anybody.
The Toronto Raptors are in a sense made to stop Harden. Danny Green will probably take first dibs on him, and he’s an elite and heady defender who shouldn’t get baited into too many fouls. OG Anunoby has had success against Harden in the past, and Kawhi Leonard is still the best perimeter defender in the NBA when he turns up the volume. (Don’t expect Leonard to guard Harden throughout the game, as he’ll likely only take high-leverage reps towards the end of a close game). Both Anunoby and Leonard are coming off of short stints off of the court, and Harden could take advantage of any slippage in conditioning or focus. Expect Harden’s shooting percentages to greatly dictate the results of the game.
The game tips at 8 PM ET on TSN for TV and Sportsnet 590 for radio. You can read an excellent full preview here from Matt Shantz.
Toronto updates:
Leonard and Anunoby should return, and Valanciunas is the only name on the injury report. Here’s the probable depth chart.
PG: Kyle Lowry, Fred Van Vleet, Delon Wright
SG: Danny Green, Norman Powell, Patrick Mccaw
SF: Kawhi Leonard, OG Anunoby, CJ Miles, Malachi Richardson
PF: Pascal Siakam
C: Serge Ibaka, Greg Monroe
Houston Updates:
It looked like Chris Paul might return, but he has been ruled out. Looks like it will continue to be the James Harden show (there are worse shows, to be sure). Nene should return after a rest day against the New York Knicks on Wednesday, but Houston hasn’t given him a long minutes leash this season. Faried may well start, especially with Valanciunas unavailable to feast on Houston’s lack of size in the paint.
PG: James Harden, Austin Rivers
SG: Eric Gordon
SF: PJ Tucker, James Ennis, Gerald Green, Vince Edwards
PF: Gary Clark, Marquese Chriss
C: Nene, Kenneth Faried
Assorted:
- Obviously, the Kawhi buying a house thing is news insomuch as we’re all talking about it. Here’s my take (that we’re all insane people for paying such close attention, in short). At the very least, it made for some pretty solid comedy amidst the hair-rending on Raptors Twitter.
- New open gym!
- Kawhi is starting in the all-star game! It’s no surprise, but it’s clearly well-deserved and worthy of celebration. You can also read about RR’s cases for Ibaka, Siakam, or Lowry to be included.
The Line:
Vegas has Toronto as -3, which seems potentially high. Houston is at home, and James Harden has transformed into the god of destruction. Over-under is 227.5.
