The Toronto Raptors are back to work. While the enthusiasm and passion from the championship parade will still be pulsating throughout the players, the Raptors executives are busy preparing for a gruelling offseason. The NBA Draft will usher in a new wave of young prospects for the team.
Shortly thereafter, the roller coaster of free agency will take place, answering critical questions for this team. Will Kawhi Leonard stay? How will the Raptors use their cap space to sign current players?
If the Toronto Raptors want to contend for their second consecutive NBA championship next season, their offseason will be spent nailing down the assets necessary for success. Leave it to Masai and the management of the Toronto Raptors to make sure this team is a contender next season.
For the 2018-19 season:
- The Raptors total payroll was $136 million.
- In terms of committed salary, the Raptors sit at $133.6 million which is $24.6 million above the luxury tax.
- This means that in taxes, the Raptors will be spending $25.5 million.
- Given that the Raptors just won a championship and are looking to be a perennial contender in the NBA, it is unsurprising that this amount spent in taxes last season is so high.
The Golden State Warriors, who captured three of the past five NBA championships, have been in the luxury tax for the last four years. . In 2018-19, the Warriors had a $145 million payroll, and finished the year $21.7 million above the luxury tax, resulting $51.8 million spent in taxes. Even if Kevin Durant leaves somewhere else during the 2020 offseason, the Warriors won’t have a ton of money leftover to pursue big name free agents, assuming they lock up Klay Thompson and Draymond Green to max deals (along with Steph Curry). While the Warriors have been the model franchise this decade in terms of championship success, being over the luxury tax will eventually catch up with a team looking to invest in the future. A reality that the Toronto Raptors may need to face soon.
Below are the salaries of all the Toronto Raptors players over the next few years (table from: Basketball Reference):
The player options of Marc Gasol and Kawhi Leonard equal $25.6 million and $21.3 million respectively. On Wednesday, Gasol decided to exercise his player option, meaning he will return to the Raptors for another season. Patrick McCaw is a restricted free agent while Danny Green, Jeremy Lin, and Eric Moreland are unrestricted free agents, most likely not coming back to the Raptors next season.
While Danny Green led the Raptors in three-point shooting in the regular season (45.5 percent), he only shot 31.4 percent beyond the arc entering the NBA Finals. He is 32 and given that he is from New York, it is reasonable that his hometown New York Knicks are going to make a concerted effort to recruit the pending unrestricted free agent. Perhaps the Toronto Raptors would look at J.J. Redick if Green decides to walk. Last season for the Philadelphia 76ers, Redick averaged 18 points on 44 percent shooting, with 39.7 percent from three. While Green is the better defender, Redick will provide offensive consistency that the Raptors could use next season.
With the free agency period opening on Sunday, let’s break down the Raptors current cap situation. The salary cap for this summer is predicted to be at $109 million The 2019 NBA luxury tax threshold is projected to be $132 million. Given that Kawhi opted out of his player option and Gasol opted in, this puts the Raptors’ payroll at $112 million, including slot cap holds (Danny Green, Jeremy Lin, Jodie Meeks, Patrick McCaw and Eric Moreland). Slot cap holds are players that act as “placeholders” for pending free agents. Given that they would be a whole $3 million above the salary cap, the Raptors would have to use other mechanisms to re-sign free agents, such as:
- Mid-Level Exceptions (worth $9.2 million). This is available to teams like the Raptors who have gone over the cap and the luxury tax apron.
- Bi-Annual Exceptions ($3.6 million starting salary, up to two years) or
- Minimum Salary Exceptions ($1.6 million starting salary, up to two years).
Norman Powell and OG Anunoby are the only two players with contracts guaranteed into the 2020-21 season. It leaves Toronto Raptors management a plethora of decisions to make in the present and for the future to keep their core players.
The first and most vital is trying to recruit Kawhi Leonard. Let’s break down the two scenarios on whether Kawhi stays or goes:
Scenario 1: Kawhi Stays With Toronto
This is the news all Toronto Raptors fans want to hear. That Kawhi Leonard, the organization’s catalyst and arguably the best two way player in basketball, will play for Toronto as they try and win back to back championships. By the way, looking at the Raptors’ 2020 NBA Championship odds at this exact moment will surprise you – they’re not the favorites.
If Kawhi does stay in Toronto, it will be under one of the following contract conditions:
- A five-year, $189.7 million super-max deal. This includes eight percent raises every year, as the Raptors would inherit the Bird rights (ability for teams to re-sign their free agents up to the maximum salary, can be transferred when a player is traded) on Kawhi.
- A two-year deal with a player option in the second year, known as a “one plus one.”
- Other iterations of the short-term deal, including a 2+1 or a 3+1, which would depend on risk preference and the priority to sign a super max for his next deal.
What the Raptors have over their competitors is the financial incentive. As a result of the NBA Collective Bargaining Rules, teams can resign pending free agents to the maximum amount of money possible, in an effort to prevent the player’s departure. Other teams have to use their cap space as per the CBA, meaning they can only offer four years and smaller annual raises
In addition to the money, the Raptors championship pedigree can be another factor in Kawhi’s decision making process. If Kawhi stays, six of the eight core players in the rotation will return. With Jimmy Butler and Chris Middleton declining their player options to become unrestricted free agents, the Philadelphia 76ers and Milwaukee Bucks won’t be as much difficulty for Toronto next season. The Brooklyn Nets or New York Knicks may improve with the arrival of big-ticket free agents such as Kyrie Irving. But the Raptors have the much deeper lineup, particularly with Kawhi leading the charge.
Scenario 2: Kawhi Leaves the Raptors
If the recent report from ESPN’s Adrian Wojnawroski is true, saying that the Raptors “have a long way to go” to sign Kawhi, that means the probability that he is leaving the Raptors is high. It would be an esoteric decision to make for a superstar to leave a team that just won an NBA championship. But Kawhi has done this before, when he departed from the San Antonio Spurs, the organization of his inaugural championship.
The team most likely to land Kawhi is the Los Angeles Clippers. The max a team like the Clippers could offer Kawhi is four-years, $140.6 million, which is less than Toronto. Money won’t be the sole motivator in Kawhi’s decision, evidenced by his departure from San Antonio.
A savvy move for Leonard would be to sign a two-year deal with the Raptors using a player option. This contract proves to be financially lucrative because 2021 is when Kawhi’s salary can increase to 35 % of the team’s salary cap. With a short-term deal, he can optimize the money he is making before he jumps to the next salary tier. The highest salary bracket rewards players who have been in the NBA for 10-plus years with an opportunity to make the most amount of money in what is called a super-max deal.
This would enable Kawhi to remain with the core rotation that could secure back-to-back NBA championships. This model is like what LeBron James did with the Cleveland Cavaliers, when he signed a three-year deal in 2016, before opting out to secure a four-year, $153.3 million contract. It’s a gamble for the 27-year-old who has missed extended periods of time this season to prevent injuries. But staying in Toronto for one more year could provide the impetus for a Raptors team looking to achieve championship glory once again next season.
If Kawhi ends up leaving Toronto, the Raptors wouldn’t have the cap space necessary to make a splash on a top free agent to replace the superstar until 2020. But if Leonard stays, and Gasol picks up his option, this means the Raptors have six of their potential eight players from the rotation that afforded the franchise’s inaugural NBA championship.
Separate from Kawhi, the next order of business for Masai would be to extend rising star Pascal Siakam. Siakam is one of 20 players eligible for a rookie-scale extension this offseason. Entering the 2019-2020 season, Siakam is expected to make $2.3 million. Given that he averaged 16.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists this season, with a superb postseason that featured his career playoff high 32 points in Game 1 against the Warriors, Siakam is a young asset that is only going to get better. A future superstar that the Raptors can build around, particularly with his ability to score and defend in the post. Raptors management will certainly be looking to sign Siakam to a long-term contract extension, becoming a pillar for this organization in the years to come.
Pascal Siakam isn’t the only player that needs to be resigned for the Raptors. Kyle Lowry, the engine and energy igniter at point guard, is set to hit free agency in the summer of 2020. Despite his performance in the playoffs and the intangibles he provides to the team, I believe the Raptors should use their extra cap space to invest in younger players rather than keeping Lowry when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
There will be no lack of entertainment and buzz heading into the offseason for the Toronto Raptors. The defending champions will be busy locking up future assets while trying to add pieces at a low price in order to increase the depth of the roster. But if this team is going to contend for another championship, it hinges on whether the best two-way player in the NBA, Kawhi Leonard, will stay and sign a deal with the Kings of the North.
