Well that wasn’t such a great week. Toronto is in a slide. At least Kawhi Leonard got his ring, and everyone was happy. That is, until the game started.
The explanation for this weekly column at Raptors Republic, called The Black Box Report, is fairly simple. Is it a literary journal? Maybe; it sure sounds like it. If it were, I would probably read it. There would be stories about contemplating ones own mortality in relation to a string of moral and emotional defeats. Unfortunately, this is not that journal. This column is for me and Samson Folk to simultaneously look forwards and back, explicating the under-examined and trying to explain what went, goes, and maybe even will go, on under the hood. The black box is the vessel inside of which all information is stored, and it’s known for its opacity. Hopefully, this column can add some transparency to what actually puts the points on the board.
It’s also been brought to our attention that the Black Box Report reminds people of plane crashes. Well, we all need to remember our roots as Raptors fans. Times can be too good, and sometimes being a fan can be too easy. We need to remember where we came from. Furthermore, this column is now the top hit when you google ‘black box report.’ So whose column is a plane crash now?
Looking back – Folk
Games:
6:00 pm EST on Sunday December 8 @ Philadelphia 76ers – 110-104 L
8:00 pm EST on Monday December 9 @ Chicago Bulls – 93-92 W
7:00 pm EST on Wednesday December 11 against Los Angeles Clippers – 112-92 L
Unrivalled Defensive Prowess
Even in the midst of a disappointing week – and a disappointing 5 game stretch – the Raptors weren’t left wanting for fun or exciting developments. OG Anunoby stood out, Norman Powell seems to have captured at least some of the main ingredients of consistency, and Marc Gasol has been scintillating defensively. I wrote a piece at the start of the year claiming that Anunoby should make an All-Defensive team, and rightfully so. And he’s continued that level of defense, which is great. However, what Gasol has been doing in recent games is part and parcel of a DPOY resume.
The Raptors were -43 in the 54 minutes that Gasol didn’t play, in a 3-game stretch where they had a collective +/- of -25. Even to look in December the Raptors defensive rating has ballooned up to 107, with their net rating falling off a cliff.
This seems largely due to the fact that the Raptors ratcheted up certain aspects of their defense while Lowry and Ibaka were out, which has left them a smidge out of the loop defensively – Lowry not so much, Ibaka quite a bit.
The Raptors rapid, blitzing defense that we saw assume form against the Clippers in November, has seemingly gone out of vogue against the Clippers this December. In all that chaos – the doubling, the blitzing, the switches – two players were asked to constantly stitch together the backline of the defense: Gasol and Siakam. Siakam, a constant disruption to other offenses, and one of the best in the league when it comes to shot contests. Gasol, nearly infallible defensively. As the Raptors try to create turnovers and create chaos with their wild defense, Gasol stays at the back of it with a level of calmness, as he guides opposing players to the baseline, rotates to rolling big men, and changes any shot that goes up around the rim. All before he secures his box-out. He’s been sublime.
Operating the same defensive scheme with Ibaka on the floor is a recipe for disaster. As Ibaka fails to operate the back end with the same efficiency. All while acknowledging that Ibaka is a very good defender, especially at the center position. A shining example of how much emphasis has been put on Gasol, and the grace he’s performed with. The defense falls apart when a good (!) defender replaces him.
Who is the boss? Who indeed: A Critical Analysis of the Raptors Offensive Hierarchy
“The answer is not quite that simple, Mr. Abed. Few are.”
With the return of Lowry and Ibaka (and the injury to VanVleet), the Raptors offensive hierarchy is in it’s second or third restructuring of this season. It’s become a point of debate between some, and a point of contention between others. How do the Raptors properly divide offensive possessions to maximize their offensive talent? Does Siakam’s ascension put him in a position to command the lion’s share of possessions?
It was truly a mixed bag this past week. The Raptors faced two top-tier defenses, and had to change and morph based on that. Kawhi Leonard guarded Lowry for a full game, which meant that Lowry deferred to others for the duration. Gasol emerged as a reliable playmaker (he was always capable, of course) in Lowry’s absence, and continued that this past week. The Raptors leaned on him in the Chicago and Los Angeles games particularly, to allow them entrance into the paint, to create an avenue to open three-point shots and basket cuts. Gasol obliged, providing nearly 5 assists per game, but with offenses these days, that still won’t cut it. You need raw pick n’ roll numbers. A sure-fire option. The Raptors are willingly depriving themselves of that lately.
It’s deeply interesting because most everyone else on the team gets to indulge in their most efficient play-type, but not Siakam. At this point in his career, Gasol’s best work is done from behind the line, we’ve seen how bad things have gotten inside the arc when it comes to his scoring. Powell has provided consistency lately, and a large part of that is because he gets to play to his strengths. He attacks off the weak-side, he spots-up and he runs out in transition. Lowry picks his own spots for the most part, hitting jumpers after drag screens, winning 2-on-1 scenarios in the pick n’ roll. Why is Siakam being championed as an iso-savant in the Raptors offense?
Only four players in the league go to the iso more often, three of them are much better at it, and the other is Russell Westbrook. So, it’s more than clear that the Raptors have immense confidence in Siakam’s ability to create without a shred of help, but looking back on a week in which the Raptors offense faltered over and over, it’s worth wondering whether reps in other areas might help, too?
Lowry’s openly lamented about his own play recently, and certainly doesn’t have the selfish playstyle to demand he take the spotlight. It also doesn’t seem likely that he would shift the offensive balance toward iso-heavy basketball, given his reverence for the pass and ball movement. Gasol and Powell have only ever been reactionary pieces in the Raptors moving offensive puzzle, responding to different stimuli and trying to make the best of it. VanVleet is currently on the sidelines. And finally, Siakam is showing incredible fatigue during these games. We’ve seen a player who’s eyes would light on fire when he saw Kuzma in front of him, deferring when he’s being guarded by the likes of Lauri Markkanen and Westbrook. Naturally, the boss is Nick Nurse.
This is a tough thing to write about, because I’m fully aware that Nick Nurse knows all of this, and is much more knowledgeable about the ongoings of Siakam’s offensive profile than I am. There’s always a plan in order with the Raptors, and evidenced by the newest banner hanging in Scotiabank Arena, good plans. However (comma) even the best plans need tweaking, and after a dry, dry week offensively, hopefully the Raptors incorporate more dynamism and creativity in Siakam’s sets, rather than posting him up on the weak-side from 19-feet out, or having him isolate from above-the-break. Have we not yet figured out that Siakam can get it done on a rainy night in Stoke?
I don’t know whether or not the Raptors are planning on making changes right away. But, if they decide to keep the status quo until playoffs, they can pull a fast one on their first round matchup – I hope not, I just wanted to reference the Princess Bride.
Looking forward – Zatzman
Games:
7:30 pm EST on Saturday December 14 against the Brooklyn Nets
7:30 pm EST on Monday December 16 against the Cleveland Cavaliers
7:00 EST on Wednesday December 18 @ the Detroit Pistons
No double-teams, no mercy!
If the story of Toronto’s defensive strategy over the course of the entire 2019-20 season were to be mapped onto a graph, it would be very linear. The team has basically employed double-teams to a vast extent this year against a variety of players, from Damian Lillard to Luka Doncic to Kawhi Leonard to Jimmy Butler to James Harden to … you get the point. It’s happened a lot. And it succeeded an immense amount early in the season, and it’s increasingly failed as the year has gone on. Against the Dallas Mavericks, Doncic’s teammates were empowered as Doncic himself passed the ball whenever double-teams lurched in his direction. I wrote this in a Black Box Report in late November.
“Toronto sent help early, probably too early, and Doncic made his reads instantly. Even if he wasn’t the one passing for an assist — he only finished with seven — he got the ball to a release valve, and the Mavericks played 4-on-3 for much of the game. Doncic was excellent at hitting his release as soon as a help defender opened up a lane, not waiting until the double was upon him, when it could result in a high turnover rate.”
The Raptors lost to the Mavericks 110-102. Since then, the Raptors have lost to the Heat, the Rockets, and the Clippers in practically identical manners. Early doubles sent from an obvious angle give far too much time for stars to dissect the defense and swing the ball to an open shooter.
Well, this week the Raptors will not face a superstar. Kyrie Irving is day-to-day with a shoulder injury, but he has yet to be cleared for contact, so he has to be considered doubtful for Saturday. The Cavaliers don’t have a player worthy of a double-team. The Detroit Pistons have Blake Griffin, sure, but he’s had a down year, and he is no longer a tier one scorer in the NBA. Sending two defenders against him when he’s on the perimeter – which is when Toronto’s traps have failed — would be a ridiculous strategy. The Raptors haven’t been hurt by doubling in the post.
So Toronto is in line for a light week, and they’ll be able to play far straighter man-to-man defense. They won’t need to force rotations unless necessary. As a result, expect Toronto’s defense to tighten and their transition offense to finally get going.
Where does the easy money come from?
Every signature team has a pet play for an easy two points. Last year’s Raptors had the Kawhi Leonard post-up, and it resulted in good things on almost any occasion. When anything went wrong, and Toronto needed to stabilize a leaky ship, everyone in the arena knew what was about to happen.
This year, Toronto has a number of things that come close. The Kyle Lowry-Serge Ibaka pick-and-roll was deadly last year, and it was one of the most effective offensive weapons in the league this year before they were hurt. But since they’ve returned from injury, it’s been defanged. Lowry’s shot has been off, shooting 18-of-63 from the field since his return from injury. He’s not been too threatening coming off a ball screen. Ibaka’s shot has been just as off, shooting 21-of-66 since coming back, but Ibaka has also lacked lift and touch. He’s missed a number of his usual gimmes, like little push shots around the rim and the pull-up jumper one step inside the free throw line after a short roll. Lowry and Ibaka will need to get back to normal if Toronto will return to dominance. Those two need to offer threats on the offensive end for the Raptors to reach their peak.
Pascal Siakam has also been close to a sure thing for much of the year. Until the last few weeks, Siakam was absolutely money in the post, able to power through or spin past almost any defender. He needs to get back there. Siakam has lacked aggression over the past several games, and he’s admitted such to media after every game. Has it been his response to unbelievable defenders like Paul George and Bam Adebayo? Or is Siakam not actually an elite scorer in the post?
We’ll find out this week. Siakam will face a number of poor defenders over the upcoming three games, and he will have more than enough opportunities in isolation and in the post against players who shouldn’t stand a chance. If Siakam thrives, that’s great, but if he continues to lack aggression, then Toronto will be left with an important question, especially when the playoffs roll around: When things go wrong, where will the easy money come from?
Have a blessed day – Samson
