The following is a guest post by Ian Finlayson. You can follow him on twitter here.
In the Toronto Raptors’ first summer league game of 2024 against the Oklahoma City Thunder, WNBA legend and current analyst Candace Parker had a moment of prescience as she commented on Branden Carlson’s ability to space the floor.
Seconds later Carlson received a pass from Gradey Dick and drained a catch-and-shoot 3.
“(Let’s) see if I’m brilliant – oh my goodness, it’s almost like I know Basketball a little bit.” Parker quipped on the broadcast.
In the Raptors’ second game against the Denver Nuggets, Carlson had six blocks, including a couple big swats on PJ Hall and another getting out to a Julian Strawther 3-point attempt. He was everywhere.
When the Raptors signed the seven-foot center to a two-way contract this past July, they added a skillset that the team hasn’t had in a while. In fact, the last iteration of the Toronto Raptors with stretch bigs that could also protect the rim brought home the Larry O’Brien Trophy one year and finished with the second to best record in the league the next.
While Carlson is no Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol – and the Raptors are far from championship contention – the undrafted rookie does bring this unique combination of outside shooting and rim protection.
Just how unique is this skillset? After taking a look at the numbers I found there were less centers that were good 3-point shooters and blocked a good number of shots than we might expect.
The league average 3-point percentage in the 2023-24 season was 36.6 percent, and it has fluctuated between that number and 35 percent for the past decade. When setting the parameters for big-men who can both shoot and rim protect, I decided to be kind and set the cut-off below league average, at the nice round number of 35 percent, pairing that with bigs who also averaged over one block per game.
Somewhat surprisingly, only six centers achieved both of those numbers last season: Kristaps Porzingis, Brooks Lopez, Chet Holmgren, Myles Turner, Joel Embiid, and Al Horford (minimum 60 3-point attempts). It is worth noting that all six are on teams that made the playoffs last year. Causation is not correlation and all that, but it does seem like teams with good stretch bigs who protect the rim are also good teams.
There were a couple others who also fit the description of a floor-spacing rim-protector but just missed out on qualifying. Victor Wembanyama only shot 32.5 percent from distance his rookie year but will likely progress into this category and Nikola Jokic averaged 0.9 blocks per game but also certainly fits the mold.
However, that still leaves us with a relatively small group of big-men who are capable of both making threes at a reasonable clip and anchoring the back line of a defence. Carlson demonstrated his potential to do both throughout his college career, averaging 35.4 percent from 3-point range and 1.7 blocks per game.
The South Jordan, Utah native played his college ball for his home state Utah Utes, where he finished as the programs all-time leader in games played and blocks. During that time his 3-point volume increased year over year, from 0.4 and 0.8 attempts per game his freshman and sophomore years, to 2.3 in his junior year, and then finally to 4.0 and 4.7 in each of his final years. Carlson considered entering the 2023 NBA draft, but ultimately opted to utilize the extra year of eligibility afforded to college athletes who participated in the 2020 season during the COVID-19 pandemic. In his final season he shot a career best 37.9 percent from beyond-the-arc. His blocked shots were consistent, averaging between 1.4 and 2.0 every season.
Carlson stood out for the Raptors during Summer League, primarily for his ability to make 3-pointers and block shots. He averaged 9.6 points and 2.4 blocks while shooting 33.3 percent from long range. The 25-year-old’s 3-point volume was also notable, he finished fourth on the team with 4.2 attempts per game after Ja’Kobe Walter (5.6), Javon Freeman-Liberty (5.5), and Gradey Dick (4.5). He wasn’t just taking easy ones but instead looking to fire every time the ball touched his hands.
After the Aron Baynes- and Alex Len-featured Tampa tank and the centerless years that followed, the Raptors acquired a big man that can shoot for the first time since they were good this past trade deadline. Our beloved captain Canada: Kelly Olynyk.
The Toronto native’s ability to space the floor with his 3-point shooting and play-make out of the high post makes him an excellent fit for Darko Rajakovic’s offence.
Unfortunately, he has not been able to fulfill expectations as a center on defence. Last season opposing players shot 65.5 percent within six feet of the rim with Olynyk as a defender, which ranked 90th among NBA centers. Toronto’s defence without Jakob Poeltl manning the middle last year, with Olynyk starting, plummeted.
Poeltl, on the other hand, is a stout presence at the rim – he allowed 58.0 percent within six feet, the same as DPOY finalist Bam Adebayo – but he is a non-shooter.
While unproven at the NBA level, Carlson has consistently demonstrated the capacity to both make threes and act as a rim deterrent, both throughout his college career and in his Summer League stint. He led the Pac-12 with 63 blocks in the 2022-23 season and turned heads with his six-block game against the Summer League Nuggets.
Again, this comes with the caveat that Carlson is an unknown commodity on the biggest stage. Blocking shots in college, and in Summer League, doesn’t mean he’ll be a great shot blocker in the NBA. But he’s passed every test so far. It will be interesting to see how the rookie’s distinctive skillset scales at the NBA level, where everything is faster and everyone is stronger.
In terms of speed, the former Ute does appear to be mobile enough on the perimeter to at least hang in NBA pick n’ roll coverages. When switched on to smaller wings and guards throughout Summer League, he often stuck with them on drives. This included a play in the second quarter against Denver where he negated a Julian Strawther drive to the rim with quick footwork and a strong shot-contest. Carlson showed zero hesitancy to come out and guard on the perimeter, and rarely allowed a blow-by when doing so.
In many aspects of his game, the 7-foot, 215-pound center is the prototypical modern big. A rangy, mobile, athletic shooter who can also nullify opponents at the rim. Strength-wise, Carlson might lag behind a little, however he is coming into the league at a more mature age than most. He served a two-year mission with the church of Latter-Day Saints after finishing high-school, resulting in him starting his college career late. Add that he also played five years at Utah, and you get a player who is entering the NBA at the age of 25.
That’s the same age as six-year NBA veteran and recent Raptors’ departure Gary Trent jr. While Carlson may be a first-year player, this means that you can’t count on a whole lot of continued development considering he is well beyond the typical age of what is considered a prospect. While he may not be a developmental piece, the Raptors do need to get back to a former strength – finding players on the margins. Diamonds in the rough like former second round pick Norman Powell and undrafted signee Fred VanVleet were integral to the team’s past success and eventual championship. These kinds of discoveries have been few and far between as the Raptors have drifted farther from contention. If one of Carlson, Jonthan Mogbo, Jamal Shead, or Ulrich Chomche turns into a rotation piece on a competitive team, that would be a massive win for the organization. Toronto has found contributors outside of the draft before, so Carlson would be joining a line with pedigree.
As an undrafted player on a two-way contract, Carlson will spend the majority of his time with the Raptors 905 this season. At the very least, he ought to help provide spacing and structure to the developmental team, which has value in and of itself. Yet, if this season is anything like the excessively turbulent one we saw last year – that saw a franchise-record breaking 30 players suit up for the Raptors – Carlson will be getting some opportunity with the big club.
I think Carlson will see minutes with the Raptors this season, and could be a guy if given the chance.
When that time comes, I’ll be watching closely to see not only how he performs as an individual, but also how his ability to both space the floor and protect the rim impacts the way the team plays as a whole.
