As the off-season trudges along for teams around the NBA, so does the march towards the opening of free agency.
While teams can begin negotiations with upcoming free agents on their own rosters as early as one day after the Finals conclude, the window for them to start wining and dining players around the league opens on June 30 — four days after the 2025 draft concludes.
All that to say, the Toronto Raptors could be in store for a couple of hellos and goodbyes in the coming weeks.
And although much of the attention surrounding the team right now is about a potential blockbuster deal for a certain perennial MVP out of Greece, there is more to consider.
Will the Raptors trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo, or even, should they are naturally, questions fans will want to mull over for the time being. So, I get it. But until it happens, the current roster still has plenty worth addressing.
One of those things is the backup centre spot. While Jakob Poeltl anchored the starting group, the roster had very little to offer behind him. Barely half a season of Kelly Olynyk, 63 games of an undersized rookie in Jonathan Mogbo and a pair of NBA journeymen in Orlando Robinson and Colin Castleton simply were not adequate relief at the five.
And it showed. Toronto was over 6.5 points per 100 possessions worse when the big Austrian was off the floor, and went 9-16 in games he missed altogether.
The Raptors may look to address that matter in the upcoming draft, possibly taking the likes of Khaman Maluach, Derik Queen or Thomas Sorber with No. 9, or looking at more of a project big man with their second-round selection.
But for a team seemingly ready to turn the corner into competitive relevancy, will any of those names help as early as next season? Maybe.
If Toronto wanted to mitigate that concern, looking for a seasoned centre via free agency would be the way to go. So I scoured the 2025 free agent market, admittedly not the most enticing group of names, and I landed on Luke Kornet.
While that might be the furthest thing from a sexy off-season signing, when it comes to the five spot, sexy isn’t what this team needs. It needs capable defence, hard-nosed rebounding and high-efficiency play finishing. Another high-impact, low-usage darling like Poeltl.
Kornet is about as close as one could find on the open market. And if we’re speaking physically, the pair are almost a literal match. Both are 29 years old, seven-footers and roughly 240-250 pounds.
The tangible comparisons don’t go much further, however, as the Boston Celtics big averaged 6.0 points, 5.3 rebounds (2.6 offensive, tied-28th in the NBA), 1.6 assists and 1.0 blocks on 18.6 minutes per game through his 73 appearances. In comparison, Poeltl averaged career highs of 14.5 points, 9.6 rebounds (3.3 offensive, tied-11th) and 29.6 minutes, with 2.8 assists and 1.7 blocks in 57 games.
For what it’s worth, per 36, Kornet projected 11.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 1.9 blocks. Simply put, Kornet has been an efficient scorer and an impact defender.
On offence, his game has been rudimentary. Strong screens, dunker-spot stuff and cleaning up misses. But Kornet did an exceptional job capitalizing on those brief windows of opportunity. He was an 88th percentile roll-man — 1.33 points per 100 possessions on said plays ranked top 10 during the regular season (min. 65 games). Meanwhile, Kornet’s offensive rebound rate (13.4 per cent) was 18th in the NBA.
And saying he did all that on low usage would be an understatement. Kornet’s 11.1 per cent mark ranked 530th of 567 players last season, and of players to play at least 65 games, it was the fourth lowest.
In the few stints the big man was called upon for a greater role, his statistical production increased, but the underlying trends hardly changed. As a starter (16 games), Kornet averaged 10.1 points on 72.9 per cent shooting with 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.8 blocks on 27.7 minutes per game and 12.3 per cent usage.
For a recent example of his ability to step in and step up, just look to Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semis when the 29-year-old put up 10 points on 5-for-5 shooting, nine rebounds and seven blocks, while finishing a plus-20 in 25 minutes off the bench as the Jayson Tatum-less Boston Celtics avoided elimination.
There are limitations, however, we’re talking about a backup centre who typically plays less than 20 minutes a night, after all.
A major consideration would be the lack of lineup diversity he’d offer Toronto. He’s no vertical spacer and definitely not a floor spacer — the latter of which is interesting, as he’s the rare case of a player regressing as a three-point shooter throughout his career. Kornet averaged over 125 3-point attempts per season through his first three years in the NBA, converting at a modest 33.5 per cent clip. Both his attempts and percentages have only dipped year-over-year since, and in his four seasons with Boston, he’s taken a total of 21 shots from beyond the arc and only made four (ironic given how 3-point centric the Celtics are). Last season, 220 of his 280 total shot attempts came at the rim (97th percentile for frequency, per Cleaning the Glass), of which he converted at a 74 per cent rate (81st percentile).
All that to say, if he were subbing in for Poeltl, Kornet would be offering the Raptors a lot of the same stuff, but presumably at a slightly less-effective margin.
There’s also the fact that he’s been doing a lot of this while insulated by an incredible cast in Boston. It’s a lot easier to look useful when there’s far less attention on you and the talent of those around you makes things simpler. For a frame of reference, think Bruce Brown helping the Denver Nuggets win a title next to Nikola Jokic vs. his time in Toronto.
That’s not to say Kornet was simply ineffective without the Celtics’ top-end players. In fact, the numbers say he was still pretty good. Through 82 minutes while not sharing the floor with any of Jaylen Brown, Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday, Kornet held a plus 8.58 net rating. Granted, that doesn’t account for how many of those stretches came when games were already decided.
The defensive side is where I’d say Kornet might have a slight edge on Poeltl. The undrafted big is no super-athlete, but he does offer a bit more pop and mobility than the Raptors’ starting centre — making him more than just a rim deterrent like Poeltl.
Of players on Boston in 2024-25, the No. 4-ranked defence during the regular season, Kornet was tied for the second-best defended field-goal percentage (44.0) with Derrick White amongst rotation regulars and only ever-so-slightly behind Kristaps Porzingis atop that list. For comparison, Poeltl’s defended field-goal mark was 48.2 per cent.
Meanwhile, the Celtics’ defence was nearly three points per 100 possessions better with him on the floor, and he ranked ahead of Porzingis for defensive win shares (2.2) last season
Again, how much of that was attributed to the versatile defenders around him is a fair question to ask. The five-man lineups Kornet was most commonly implemented in had him tethered to at least one of the “Jays,” and in most cases, at least another one of Boston’s other stout perimeter stoppers in White or Holiday.
But to Kornet’s credit, three of the top-five lineup combos that included him did not have either Porzingis or Al Horford, and he managed to hold an average net rating of plus 19.4 in those stints as the lone traditional big.
And if for nothing else, it would be plenty of fun seeing Kornet do his patented long-distance “eclipse” closeouts while in a Raptors uniform.
Now’s the financial mumbo-jumbo part, I’m nowhere near qualified to break down. So please bear with me as I try anyway.
As things stand, the Raptors have just under $7.8 million in cap space prior to signing any incoming rookies.
Kornet is coming off a one-year deal in Boston worth $2.8 million — his last contract before that was for two years at $4.5 million, also with the Celtics. While I anticipate him getting a pay bump, how much is up for debate. Of the upcoming centre free agents, his current salary is lower than 15 players. And with all due respect to folks like Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan ahead of Kornet, that should change very quickly after this summer’s free agency window.
But the NBA is still a business and teams are trying to find value for money constantly. If Kornet’s annual salary touches north of $10 million, would that feel proportionate for his impact?
According to Celtics beat writer John Karalis, Kornet does likely fall somewhere around that number.
“A look around the league can set Kornet’s value somewhere around $7-12 million. Andre Drummond is making $5 million with Philadelphia, so Kornet is worth more than that. Paul Reed is getting $7.7 million in Detroit. Larry Nance is making $11 million in Atlanta. Robert Williams is making $12.4 million in Portland. Certainly, Kornet slots in somewhere between that group.“
If he does see offers on the far end of that range, the Raptors would presumably be iced out of the bidding unless they were willing to go into the luxury tax, even temporarily, seeing as they’ll have all of next season to shed salary and get back down before facing any financial consequences.
But I’m not a general manager for a reason, I simply see a player who can impact the game in many positive ways and get to typing. As long as there’s a chance he can be had at a moderate price, like the lower end of that $7-12 million range, I think it’s worth considering.
Ultimately, whether it’s with Kornet, another free agent or a rookie, the front office will have to address the backup centre situation all the same. And every day, we inch closer to finding out which path the team ends up taking.
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